1. If we look are monthly chart, 78.6% retracement of recent fall comes around 11390 which would be a resistance to the current upmove.
2.There is always a week in a month which goes against the trend . We have yet to encounter such a week this month. This is an observation and not a data point but have to consider it to evaluate the strategy for expiry.
3. Monthly R2 pivot is around 11140 which could be again a resistance to the upmove.
4.Option OI shows maximum OI for monthly expiry at PE10500 and CE11500. Also 10800,10900 11000 puts saw huge built up today. Weekly expiry data shows 10800 put and 11200 call most built up.
5. last week nifty saw huge support around 10580 levels and formed a wick which is positive.
So after considering all these datapoints how should we approach ?
We wait to see what Nifty does in next couple of days. If it reverses from 11150-11200 levels? or it takes out cleanly?
if we are eyeing 11600-11700 like monthly expiry; Nifty has to come down from 11150-11200 to 10900-10800. Nifty has to end this week in RED. This sounds strange but this is what I feel.If it happens I would be buying CE 11400 and hedging with CE 11700
If it takes out 11150-11200 cleanly and ends the week in green, I would not go for 11600-11700 expiry but I would be selling CE 11500 and buying CE 11700 (once the week is over or at 3.15PM on friday)
2.There is always a week in a month which goes against the trend . We have yet to encounter such a week this month. This is an observation and not a data point but have to consider it to evaluate the strategy for expiry.
3. Monthly R2 pivot is around 11140 which could be again a resistance to the upmove.
4.Option OI shows maximum OI for monthly expiry at PE10500 and CE11500. Also 10800,10900 11000 puts saw huge built up today. Weekly expiry data shows 10800 put and 11200 call most built up.
5. last week nifty saw huge support around 10580 levels and formed a wick which is positive.
So after considering all these datapoints how should we approach ?
We wait to see what Nifty does in next couple of days. If it reverses from 11150-11200 levels? or it takes out cleanly?
if we are eyeing 11600-11700 like monthly expiry; Nifty has to come down from 11150-11200 to 10900-10800. Nifty has to end this week in RED. This sounds strange but this is what I feel.If it happens I would be buying CE 11400 and hedging with CE 11700
If it takes out 11150-11200 cleanly and ends the week in green, I would not go for 11600-11700 expiry but I would be selling CE 11500 and buying CE 11700 (once the week is over or at 3.15PM on friday)
Comment:
Everyone is cheering as Nifty took out 200DMA with ease. Some experts are giving 11600,11700 target for july expiry. Wait and don't be hasty that would be my call. Though its a great news for market, it could trap retail investors if positions are taken blindly.This targets are achievable but entry is far more important here. I would like to share few data points which are important for those who are eyeing for massive expiry.
Trade closed: target reached