Weekly analysis on nifty
Structures are very important to learn/know for understanding Elliott Wave Theory.
Starting from the high of 19th Oct 2021, assuming this high as ATH and the impulsive leg has been completed here.
Correction is always form opposite to the trend, wave a has been completed 17623.00 and it's turn for wave b to retrace. w(b)= 38% to 61% of w(a) (check below diagram).
Now, wave (b) has been completed at 18229 & now, it's time for wave (c) to unfold. w(c) = 100% - 161% projection of wave (a to b) , logic here is wait for min 100% projection of wave (c) to achieve, then count the inner waves and if the waves are done as per elliott wave impulsive rules then its ok, other wise trail your SL and wait for the waves to complete. (check diagram enclosed)
As per our finding till now we have completed (wave W) first leg of correction till now at 16770.
level 17600 to 17640 is leveled as immediate resistance. Reason---w(b)= 38% to 61% of w(a) (here, retracement is calculated from the high of 15th Nov. 21 to the low of 29th Nov. 21 & we have got the supply exactly at 61% retracement of wave (c) at the high of 13 Dec. 21 candle. (check diagram below)
Corrections are basically of three types--Zig-Zags, flats & triangles, and the internal structure of all the patterns are different. On closely observing we have find the pattern formed after 29 Nov. 21 is of extended flat. where, wave (a) is completed at 13 Dec. 21 high & wave (b) got completed at 20 Dec. 21 low & after that we have seen wave (c) extended in nature, combining all three as extended flat and the pattern got completed at 18 Jan 22 high.
Till now we have seen Wave W & wave X and now its time wave Y to unfold.
Here, also I have mentioned Fibonacci relationships and numbering in chart itself. In case of any doubt please ask in comments . ( Chart enclosed)
Here, another leg has been completed at 8 march 2022. (pattern WXY) has been completed here). and also, connecting leg marked as wave x as completed at 4 April 22. Tried graphical pattern for clear understanding. chart below.
Next, from April we have seen wave unfolding in 5 impulsive wave, where all marking and Fibonacci pattern marked in chart itself. (Note: here, wave 3 and wave 5 are extended)
The most important thing in the downtrend market, we have to find the supply zones (need to check the past data), as mentioned in chart (and believe me rest of the things will fall in place !) Here, as per the marking and understanding I have mentioned charts as per channels (as per work done by various Elliotticians) Chart enclosed.
Now the very important question is what's next ?
The thing is one can't predict the move but can calculate possible movements as per previous data available. What looks move convincing to me is, nifty could retrace to 38 % to 61% of present impulsive wave, having the possibilities to go down till 13000 levels.
However, nifty could reverse if it closes above the marked supply region. If it closes above 17000 levels we need to re think about our marking and other patterns.
Structures are very important to learn/know for understanding Elliott Wave Theory.
Starting from the high of 19th Oct 2021, assuming this high as ATH and the impulsive leg has been completed here.
Correction is always form opposite to the trend, wave a has been completed 17623.00 and it's turn for wave b to retrace. w(b)= 38% to 61% of w(a) (check below diagram).
Now, wave (b) has been completed at 18229 & now, it's time for wave (c) to unfold. w(c) = 100% - 161% projection of wave (a to b) , logic here is wait for min 100% projection of wave (c) to achieve, then count the inner waves and if the waves are done as per elliott wave impulsive rules then its ok, other wise trail your SL and wait for the waves to complete. (check diagram enclosed)
As per our finding till now we have completed (wave W) first leg of correction till now at 16770.
level 17600 to 17640 is leveled as immediate resistance. Reason---w(b)= 38% to 61% of w(a) (here, retracement is calculated from the high of 15th Nov. 21 to the low of 29th Nov. 21 & we have got the supply exactly at 61% retracement of wave (c) at the high of 13 Dec. 21 candle. (check diagram below)
Corrections are basically of three types--Zig-Zags, flats & triangles, and the internal structure of all the patterns are different. On closely observing we have find the pattern formed after 29 Nov. 21 is of extended flat. where, wave (a) is completed at 13 Dec. 21 high & wave (b) got completed at 20 Dec. 21 low & after that we have seen wave (c) extended in nature, combining all three as extended flat and the pattern got completed at 18 Jan 22 high.
Till now we have seen Wave W & wave X and now its time wave Y to unfold.
Here, also I have mentioned Fibonacci relationships and numbering in chart itself. In case of any doubt please ask in comments . ( Chart enclosed)
Here, another leg has been completed at 8 march 2022. (pattern WXY) has been completed here). and also, connecting leg marked as wave x as completed at 4 April 22. Tried graphical pattern for clear understanding. chart below.
Next, from April we have seen wave unfolding in 5 impulsive wave, where all marking and Fibonacci pattern marked in chart itself. (Note: here, wave 3 and wave 5 are extended)
The most important thing in the downtrend market, we have to find the supply zones (need to check the past data), as mentioned in chart (and believe me rest of the things will fall in place !) Here, as per the marking and understanding I have mentioned charts as per channels (as per work done by various Elliotticians) Chart enclosed.
Now the very important question is what's next ?
The thing is one can't predict the move but can calculate possible movements as per previous data available. What looks move convincing to me is, nifty could retrace to 38 % to 61% of present impulsive wave, having the possibilities to go down till 13000 levels.
However, nifty could reverse if it closes above the marked supply region. If it closes above 17000 levels we need to re think about our marking and other patterns.