GauravSaini
Education

NIFTY ---IMPORTANT LEVELS -BASED ON VOLATILITY

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
NIFTY has been in trading sideways for many weeks now (since dec ) many small patterns on hourly and day chart formed in between which gave hope that correction will end ----however the consolidation continued frustrating many----NIFTY is now ready for an impulse -----the breakout or breakdown levels are marked by blue lines in the analysis ----aggressive traders can go long or short once the price stays above the levels for few minutes ..... the target in case of upside breakout will be 11450 spot (over several days ) the target on downside will be 10200 spot .....this will be for positional trades only.....advised stoploss will be 65 points from the levels

please remember
1 the targets are very good however all trades carry risk.....the risk in this trade is 65*75 per nifty lot of 75 =4875 minimum......this trade is NOT SUITABLE for small traders.....that is those having capital less than 2 lakhs.....
2 the study involves elements of volatility ..... volatility increases can lead to sharp moves.....which means loss of capital can be fast....u should be able to monitor trade in real time from entry at least till it moves 100 points or so in your favor....those who are not able to monitor in real time please avoid this ...
3 Futures carry high degree of risk......only those who can calculate the risk and understand it should trade .....

4 OPTION PLAY....option trade can be taken based on above ... however options are far more complex than futures ......only those who can understand option ,time decay associated with it should get involved in option.....
5 The recommendation is for aggressive traders who have the capital and mindset to take breakout trades.......it happens sometimes that short term technical get stretched at breakout and price goes sideways (often hitting stoploss) before resuming its direction......this is always a consideration for aggressive traders ....keep this in mind.......i would NOT recommend re entering trade once stoploss is hit ......instead take a break.....
(THE RED LINES ARE PRESENT FROM PREVIOUS STUDY AND HAVE WORKED WELL IN THE SIDEWAYS MOVE SO FAR)
ANOTHER ATTEMPT IN NEXT 4 TRADING DAYS-nifty eod 12 feb--cmp 10831 ---nifty breakout to the upside failed as price pulled back in to range----a classical breakout failure ----breakout failures/throwbacks are parts of trading and our only defense against them is a stoploss----

next 4 days INDEX WILL MAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS RANGE -----and an impulse will start----the impulse will be of approx 800 points ----catching the impulse is not ezee as all such previous attempts have failed so far ---HAPPY TRADING TO ALL
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NIFTY EOD 7FEB----there was a decent chance to book profit at 11000 plus levels -70 plus points could be booked easily : we are seeing the correction due to short term technicals .......now its a question of trade management only.....traders trading with 1-2 lots and still holding should keep holding till stoploss is hit or 11150 ........those who have capital can add positions in dips to 11000 -11015 zone .........keeping strict stoploss as per your risk is must.....and trade must be monitored in real time.......A move above 11080 spot and close of 15 min candle should resume the uptrend
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A long trade is now active in nifty -keep the recommended stoploss.....
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traders will note that how well the red resistance line is working so far.....we drew this line in mid december .....and till today nifty has tested it four +times but unable to close above it......meanwhile the volatility is contracting.....we are waiting for the movent of price beyond the blue line and a shift in volatility......combination of these will give a trending mov......remember that the breakout will be confirmed above or below blue lines only
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