It seems we are again entering in a phase of consolidation. Yesterday when I wrote that I see a hanging man's pattern on Nifty and BNF daily charts, it required confirmation that today these indices should have openned gap down and then fall from thereon. But that did not happen and hence that pattern is negated. However, indices also did not run away on the news of RBI handing over 1.76 lakh Cr to govt. As data suggests, even FIIs are waiting on sidelines. They are not taking huge deliveries but are trading and booking small gains as is evident from their buy/Sell data. That's understandable as these agencies take cue from international markets, rupee value and other political developments as well.
1) FII & DII data: Provisional data show that FIIs were Net Sellers by 924 Cr and DIIs were net buyers by 1272 Crs. Final data show that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 670 Crs but Net Buyers in Index futures by 622 Crs and in stock futures by 743 Crs. What caught my eye was absolute figures for stock futures- Bought worth 31,485 Crs and sold worth 30742 Crs. Normally these figures are in the range of 12000 to 15000 Crs. Such high amount of buy and sell both suggest to me that FIIs want to earn on trading and do not want to carry trades because of uncertainty. Uncertainty over US China trade war, uncertainty over Trump tweets, uncertainty over USD/INR exchange rate and to some extent gold value. Gold has inverse relation with stocks. Value of gold on MCX has risen to record 39500. HNIs park their money in gold when stocks fall or are likely to fall and gold value is rising every day.
2) Option chain Data: On PUT side,total highest OI (45.15 lakhs) and fresh highest Put writing (10.67 lakhs) both are seen at 11000 strike and hence it looks like rock solid support. On CALL side, highest total OI (37.03 lakhs) and 2nd highest Call writing (7.01 lakhs) is seen at 11200. Highest Call writing (7.05 lakhs) is seen at 11300. So for now 11200 seems decent resistance. Note the difference between Put figures and Call figures. Confidence of Put writers is more that that of Call writers!
3) Charts : After two massive announcements aimed at improving liquidity, improving demand and fiscal consolidation, I expected a solid green candle today too. But it did not happen. May be because of other factors mentioned above. So we end up with a Doji candle, albeit a gap -up. And that's why I said we seem to move in a phase of consolidation. So our top limit is 11182 and lower limit is 10990. Buying area (10995-11028) and Selling area (11168 - 11190) are marked on charts. Take trades if Nifty reaches these levels with a SL of around 30 points and a gain of 60-70 points.
All the best. Happy trading.
1) FII & DII data: Provisional data show that FIIs were Net Sellers by 924 Cr and DIIs were net buyers by 1272 Crs. Final data show that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 670 Crs but Net Buyers in Index futures by 622 Crs and in stock futures by 743 Crs. What caught my eye was absolute figures for stock futures- Bought worth 31,485 Crs and sold worth 30742 Crs. Normally these figures are in the range of 12000 to 15000 Crs. Such high amount of buy and sell both suggest to me that FIIs want to earn on trading and do not want to carry trades because of uncertainty. Uncertainty over US China trade war, uncertainty over Trump tweets, uncertainty over USD/INR exchange rate and to some extent gold value. Gold has inverse relation with stocks. Value of gold on MCX has risen to record 39500. HNIs park their money in gold when stocks fall or are likely to fall and gold value is rising every day.
2) Option chain Data: On PUT side,total highest OI (45.15 lakhs) and fresh highest Put writing (10.67 lakhs) both are seen at 11000 strike and hence it looks like rock solid support. On CALL side, highest total OI (37.03 lakhs) and 2nd highest Call writing (7.01 lakhs) is seen at 11200. Highest Call writing (7.05 lakhs) is seen at 11300. So for now 11200 seems decent resistance. Note the difference between Put figures and Call figures. Confidence of Put writers is more that that of Call writers!
3) Charts : After two massive announcements aimed at improving liquidity, improving demand and fiscal consolidation, I expected a solid green candle today too. But it did not happen. May be because of other factors mentioned above. So we end up with a Doji candle, albeit a gap -up. And that's why I said we seem to move in a phase of consolidation. So our top limit is 11182 and lower limit is 10990. Buying area (10995-11028) and Selling area (11168 - 11190) are marked on charts. Take trades if Nifty reaches these levels with a SL of around 30 points and a gain of 60-70 points.
All the best. Happy trading.