Not much change in attitude and outlook, even though the candle on daily chart shows a bit of green colour. Why? Let us investigate.
1) FIIs & DIIs Buy Sell figures- Provisional figures show FIIs were Net Sellers by 2888 Crs (huge number) and DIIs were Net Buyers by around 2813 Crs (again, huge numeber). Due to this matching numbers we saw trades in both directions. The final figures show all round selling by FIIs- FII/FPIs wer Net Sellers in Equity by 1009 Crs, in Index futures by 2049 Crs (see, the outlook is still the same!) and in stock futures by 371 Crs. Sell all! One more interesting figure caught my eye.We can assume that friday's green candle was a result of matching Net buying figures. But to give you deeper insight let me state absolute FII Selling figures, 7681 Crs, vis-a vis DII buying figures, 5646 Crs, as per provisional data. So in absolute terms, FIIs sold around 2000 Crs more than what DIIs bought. Who is more powerful? Another piece of data, FIIs sold bonds worth around 1140 crs in secondary market. When do you sell bond ? Either when you (meaning the FII/FPI ) need money because some investor wants redemption or you are doubtful of company's (whose bond the FII is holding) financial health, right? So if the case is latter, it again doesn't augurs well for our markets and economy because some company may default in their installment payment in near future (remember DHFL downfall started with only 250 Cr bond sell, initially, if I remember correctly).
2) Option Chain analysis- On PUT side, data is reasonably clear. The highest OI of 17.08 lakhs is at 11000 strike with very low fresh Put writing of 1.48 lakhs only. Highest fresh Put writing (6.70 lakhs) is at the strike of 10900 with total OI of 14.49 lakhs (2nd highest total OI). There is OK fresh Put writing (above 4 lakhs each) at lower strikes of 10800 & 10700 too with OK total OI. This means, for now, 10900 is much better support than 11000. On CALL side, it is tricky. Highest Call writing (3.70 lakhs only!) is at 10900 and 2nd highest Call writing (3.62 lakhs) is at 11300. So much difference in strikes and so low Call writing! But it is not entirely unusual to see such confusing figures at weekends. Traders do not want to commit money with 2 days as holidays. Anything can happen! Highest total OI ( of 21.49 lakhs) is at 11100 strike and 2nd highest total OI (of 19.65 lakhs) is at 11200 strike. So immediate resistance looks at 11100, though I feel strongly that scaling 11000 itself will be big task. Lets look at charts for that.
3) On daily charts, Nifty clocked almost same high (11080) as previous day but lower low with close (10997) quite below high and low almost 195 points below high. This suggests that recovery was handsome but staying above 11000 is looking difficult. RSI is at 26.55, which is in oversold area ( it is there since the last 5 sessions but sustained buying is still elusive) and next support (below yesterday'slow, that is) looks at 11823. Hence I would look to short. The levels are given on 15 min chart. At lows, one can buy between 11867 to 11815 range, but again, put strict SL at around 11800 since we will be taking trade against momentum and sentiment.
All the best. happy trading.
1) FIIs & DIIs Buy Sell figures- Provisional figures show FIIs were Net Sellers by 2888 Crs (huge number) and DIIs were Net Buyers by around 2813 Crs (again, huge numeber). Due to this matching numbers we saw trades in both directions. The final figures show all round selling by FIIs- FII/FPIs wer Net Sellers in Equity by 1009 Crs, in Index futures by 2049 Crs (see, the outlook is still the same!) and in stock futures by 371 Crs. Sell all! One more interesting figure caught my eye.We can assume that friday's green candle was a result of matching Net buying figures. But to give you deeper insight let me state absolute FII Selling figures, 7681 Crs, vis-a vis DII buying figures, 5646 Crs, as per provisional data. So in absolute terms, FIIs sold around 2000 Crs more than what DIIs bought. Who is more powerful? Another piece of data, FIIs sold bonds worth around 1140 crs in secondary market. When do you sell bond ? Either when you (meaning the FII/FPI ) need money because some investor wants redemption or you are doubtful of company's (whose bond the FII is holding) financial health, right? So if the case is latter, it again doesn't augurs well for our markets and economy because some company may default in their installment payment in near future (remember DHFL downfall started with only 250 Cr bond sell, initially, if I remember correctly).
2) Option Chain analysis- On PUT side, data is reasonably clear. The highest OI of 17.08 lakhs is at 11000 strike with very low fresh Put writing of 1.48 lakhs only. Highest fresh Put writing (6.70 lakhs) is at the strike of 10900 with total OI of 14.49 lakhs (2nd highest total OI). There is OK fresh Put writing (above 4 lakhs each) at lower strikes of 10800 & 10700 too with OK total OI. This means, for now, 10900 is much better support than 11000. On CALL side, it is tricky. Highest Call writing (3.70 lakhs only!) is at 10900 and 2nd highest Call writing (3.62 lakhs) is at 11300. So much difference in strikes and so low Call writing! But it is not entirely unusual to see such confusing figures at weekends. Traders do not want to commit money with 2 days as holidays. Anything can happen! Highest total OI ( of 21.49 lakhs) is at 11100 strike and 2nd highest total OI (of 19.65 lakhs) is at 11200 strike. So immediate resistance looks at 11100, though I feel strongly that scaling 11000 itself will be big task. Lets look at charts for that.
3) On daily charts, Nifty clocked almost same high (11080) as previous day but lower low with close (10997) quite below high and low almost 195 points below high. This suggests that recovery was handsome but staying above 11000 is looking difficult. RSI is at 26.55, which is in oversold area ( it is there since the last 5 sessions but sustained buying is still elusive) and next support (below yesterday'slow, that is) looks at 11823. Hence I would look to short. The levels are given on 15 min chart. At lows, one can buy between 11867 to 11815 range, but again, put strict SL at around 11800 since we will be taking trade against momentum and sentiment.
All the best. happy trading.
Comment:
For all who read this post- NIfty is in Buying area but please DO NOT ATTEMPT TO BUY! Do not try to catch the falling life! Trade tensions, falling rupee, political tensions in J&K are all fundamental factors which might fuel further fall.