NIFTY prediction for today 20 JUN 24

Jun 20

As we discussed, NIFTY traded in a sideways roller coaster with huge volatility inside the provided channel.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading indecisive in a bullish zone. By the time it's in the channel, it's going to be a roller coaster. If the market breaks the channel to the downside, it may lead to a good fall till 200 EMA [23350]. Inside the channel, it can again show good volatility, big up and down candles.
Trade the market with proper risk management.
Support levels: 23474, 23379, and 23340 or EMA(200)
Resistance levels: 23622, and upper resistance trendline

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.97, which has decreased from 1.91, shows a weak bullish sign in the market. 23500 is max-pain. The market does not have much resistance to the upside till 24000. However, as bulls are not able to push the market to the upside, it might lead to a short correction. Also, a significant fall in PCR shows weakness in bulls.

I am expecting the market :
Case 1: Sideways bullish in channel
Case 2: Bearish if the market breaks the channel to the downside.
Reason:

1. RSI < 50, falling to doenside. if it crosses the 40 to the downside, it might lead to a bearish market.
   
2. Price < EMA(13, 50) and Price > EMA(200), which indicates weak bulls market
   
3. PCR = 0.97 has decreased from 1.19 and shows signs of weakness in the bull's strength.
   
4. Price < VWAP shows a Bearish market structure.
   

Verdict: Neutral

Plan of action:
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 23500 PE & 23600 CE (Hedge it with 10/- premium options)
Case 2: Exit PE if it breaks the channel to the downside.