CautiousChartist

NIFTY 50 - Expecting a Retracement

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Expecting a small retracement. Lets see if it retraces or not.

Comments

this is the last leg up.. if the correction lasts more than 2-3 days.. then it might signal end of bull run
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@Parasuram, Not really sure of the end of the bull run yet because I'm yet to reach the level where I can proficiently plot of elliot waves. For now, unless and until the retracement levels are breached, can't really signal a downtrend. It could even move sideways.
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I'm curious how'd you get the resistance level or the so called reversal zone as nifty is trading at an all time high level so there was no previous data to analyse the resistance levels for it
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CautiousChartist sandeshprabhu85
@sandeshprabhu85, I'll reserve the comment for now as this is something which I'm currently working on and I've just put it to implementation. If it goes wrong I'll need to polish my learning, if right I'll let you know.
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sandeshprabhu85 CautiousChartist
@CautiousChartist, sure thing
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Nice catch..
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Nifty and Sensex indices are rallying but stocks are losing momentum, definitely indicates a bubble that's gonna burst soon
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CautiousChartist sandeshprabhu85
@sandeshprabhu85, Stocks are losing momentum ? - Can't say much about it because I may be wrong too but for now my analysis is as follows.

66.15% of Nifty50 weight is held by Financial services 37.82%, IT 16.53% and Oil & Gas 11.8%

Financial Services are just beginning to rise.
Crude Oil is on the verge of a multi year breakout.
PSU banks have come out of 10year consolidation.
IT index has been consolidating since Jan 2021.

Acc to me, this is just the beginning of a fresh rally but a small retracement is on the cards in the short term. The RBI comment to me isn't adding up just yet.
+2 Reply
sandeshprabhu85 CautiousChartist
@CautiousChartist, okay but i think this rally is hollow cuz just look at PVR, and tell me you see growth there cuz there no income from operations in Q1 and decreasing profits increasing debt but still it's rallying going with the flow of the market with quiet shit fundamentals. This is the reason i think that the current market is a huge bubble waiting for a small trigger to get burst and when it does all these multi year breakouts and all won't help as the market overall will fall sharply. 50% chances i might be RIGHT 50% chances I might be WRONG only time can tell what's gonna happen but for the short term one needs to be cautious.
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CautiousChartist sandeshprabhu85
@sandeshprabhu85, True that. When the market decides to fall technical won't work "once supports are broken". TA will however give us all a warning signal in advance. It gave us in 2008 and 2020 and it will give us again. Till then trailing stop loss in each stock one holds is what one needs to strictly believe in.
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