NIFTY - RETRACEMENT ON THE CARDS?

Sep 26, 2023

Nifty has been falling continuously after making new ATH above 20,000. As the market is digesting the rate pause and a hawkish FED, it has found support at a rising trend line.

Nifty has formed a double doji in the Daily TF and has shown signs an upcoming bounce at the very least. RSI is showing a good divergence in 75 min TF.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1QSAewok/
Further evidence lies in today's (26th September) trading session when Nifty showed resilience when DOW futures were down roughly over 200 points because of Moody's warning of a potential downgrade on US economy if there was a shutdown on Oct 1.

It seems the right time to play the bounce and if it manages to sustain above the 0.618 ratio, fresh buying can be witnessed too. I expect a bullish monthly expiry on Thursday bearing any black swan events.

Sep 28, 2023

Note

The expiry view has turned out wrong, and nifty has further tanked 1% on weak global cues. However, the view remains the same, a bounce to around 0.618 level is expected soon. View negated below 19500 closing basis.

Sep 29, 2023

Trade closed: stop reached

Today we have seen a good bounce of upto 1%, making a high of 19,724. However, a selloff was witnessed in the last 1 hour.

Nifty remains weak and any gapup on Tuesday could be used to sell the index.