VipulCIL

NIFTY ANALYSIS AND WEEKLY PICKS

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
NIFTY on 13-04-2023
As discussed in the previous blog Index faced strong resistance near 17800 and fell to retest 17725 during intraday.
During a volatile session on the day of weekly expiry , with the support of BANK and FINANCIAL, NIFTY bounced back sharply from the first support level, recovering all losses to reclaim 17800, and closed above the sacrosanct level of 17800.
Weakness was observed in IT which lost 2.20% during the trading session.
NIFTY closed at 17828 making a Hanging Man kind of candle n daily chart.
Technical View: (DAILY CHART)
NIFTY has made a Hanging Man kind of candle which is generally interpreted as the indication of trend reversal and under present situation there are high chances that the Index might see some minor correction in upcoming trading sessions.
Presently NIFTY EMA13>EMA34>EMA21 which can be inferred as the NIFTY is still under consolidation zone and the trend may be said positive once the basic criterion EMA13>EMA21>EMA34 is satisfied.
RSI is above 60 levels which could be interpreted as: Index is in strong Bullish momentum However, a close observation may reflect that despite Index is making Higher High and Higher Low pattern ( which confirms the short term uptrend) the RSI is not moving accordingly and this is what known as diversion which signals the trend reversals from current levels.
Support and Resistance: DAILY CHART
17718-17648 will hold support for NIFTY during tomorrow’s session. Below this 17600 will hold strong support.
On the upper side 17840-17900 will hold resistance for NIFTY. Above this 17950 will hold strong resistance.
Sectoral View:
On sectoral front BANK, AUTO and PHARMA look strong while weakness may be seen in IT, FMCG and OIL&GAS.
Also, on weekly charts, Broader Markets seem to be better performer than vital sectoral indices.
View for traders:
Index has been indicating towards some minor correction, in upcoming trading sessions ,since last few trading sessions and a glimpse of the same was seen on the day of weekly expiry.
In my view, the Index may move approximately 200 points in either of the directions.
Now this sentence seems quite ambiguous.
Let us try to simplify this. If Index successfully holds 17850 then one may expect the further move towards 18000-18040.
However, if Index fails to sustain 17775, there are high chances that Index may retest 17650-625 levels.
So, in my view, it seems lucrative to buy NIFTY in either of the two ways:
I. Buy in the range of 17850-875 for target 18000-18040. SL may be kept below 17800 on closing basis.
II. Buy NIFTY in the range of 17650-625 for target 17775-800. SL may be kept below 17600 on closing basis.
Sell NIFTY in the range of 17825-850 for Target of 17730-17700. SL may be kept at 17900 on closing basis.
The positional traders may hold the position for target of 17650-600. SL will remain the same.
WEEKLY PICKS:
1. Godrej Properties
Buy in the range of 1250-1260
Target 1: 1384 Target 2: 1615
SL 1200
Potential upside 10.72% and 29.2%
Duration 1-3 months
2. Welspun India
Buy in the range of 75-77
Target 87.75
SL 70
Potential Upside 17%
Duration 1-3 months
3. EICHER MOTORS
Buy in the range of 3090-3120
Target 3347
SL 2985
Potential Upside 8.31%
Duration 1 month

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