NIFTY prediction for tomorrow ( Monday ) 17 Jun

Jun 14

As we discussed in the morning, NIFTY traded in a sideways-bullish zone.

If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in a Bullish sideways uptrending channel. The market is continuously taking support at 50 EMA. Until Marklet is inside the channel, it's going to be sideways. The market is in the middle of the channel, which might also act as good resistance. But if it breaks 23472 to the upside, it might go till 23600. However, if it breaks the channel and 50 EMA to the downside, there is a high probability that it's going to touch 200 EMA with a sharp fall.
Support levels: 23338, 23199, and 23174
resistance levels: 23472, 23600

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.42, which has increased from 1.17, shows a bullish sign in the market. 23400 is max-pain. 23500 has significant CE writing at higher levels. On the other hand, 23300 and 23000 have heavy PE writing.
VIX has also decreased significantly, which indicates volatility is being controlled.
I am expecting the market:
Case 1: Sideways in the up-trending channel
Case 2: Bearish if it breaks the channel to the downside.

Reason:

1. RSI 40-60 shows a bullish structure.
   
2. Price > EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a Bullish market structure.
   
3. PCR = 1.42 has risen from 1.12 and shows signs of bullishness.
   
4. Price > VWAP shows a Bullish market structure.
   

Verdict: Indecisive
Case 1: Sideways in the up-trending channel
Case 2: Bearish if it breaks the channel to the downside.
Plan of action:
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 23450 PE & 23450 CE (Hedge it with 10/- premium options)
Case 2: Exit opposite position on either side it breaks.