NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -20-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16382.5 / 16509.55 / 16376.05 / 16450.5
H-L = 133
VIX 14.02 / +8.6%
FII DII: -2178 Crores
Likely open: Negative to flat
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
A 200+ point gap-down opening in Nifty shook all the scrips.
Nifty made a significantly lower high and a significantly lower low.
It then moved in a narrow range of 100+ points witnessing high volatility and choppy movements.
On daily charts, it appears to have been brutally thrown away from the top though it has made a good recovery from the lows.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
HUL 23
BAJAJ FINANCE 15
NESTLE 13
ASIAN PAINTS 11
BRITANNIA 09
TOTAL 71
The Draggers
JSW STEEL 27
TATA STEEL 21
RELIANCE 18
ICICI BANK 11
SBI 11
TOTAL 88
Lifter - Draggers = -17
The selling appears to be quite intense and that explains the negative closing for the week.
POSITIVES
The sleeping giant HUL woke up and stood firm and helped steady Nifty.
HDFC ended in the green despite extreme selling pressure.
BANK NIFTY managed to end above 35000 make or break level.
NEGATIVES
Nifty failed to close above 16500 and a major barrier for the bulls has been lost for now.
BANK NIFTY fought an intense battle to stay above 35000 and it was hard to for it to even cross 35100 as it was pushed down severely from that area.
FIIs have sold heavily.
VIX is up almost 9%!
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 23-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves down to 16300-350. The resistances are now from 16500 onwards.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 34800-35000 and resistance at 35200-35500.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
FIIs have sold heavily so some more negativity on the cards.
HUL rose sharply and BRITANNIA also did well but ITC did not move much. So there is something in HUL and BRITANNIA that is not applicable to ITC.
BANK NIFTY was struggling hard to cross 35100 and the impact was direct on Nifty. The moves remind me of the slow and choppy moves that we had seen during the last year after the COVID triggered the crash.
Is this a Buy on Dips market?
If one remains stock-specific then yes, it is so - at least for support to resistance-based trades.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
20-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16382.5 / 16509.55 / 16376.05 / 16450.5
H-L = 133
VIX 14.02 / +8.6%
FII DII: -2178 Crores
Likely open: Negative to flat
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
A 200+ point gap-down opening in Nifty shook all the scrips.
Nifty made a significantly lower high and a significantly lower low.
It then moved in a narrow range of 100+ points witnessing high volatility and choppy movements.
On daily charts, it appears to have been brutally thrown away from the top though it has made a good recovery from the lows.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
HUL 23
BAJAJ FINANCE 15
NESTLE 13
ASIAN PAINTS 11
BRITANNIA 09
TOTAL 71
The Draggers
JSW STEEL 27
TATA STEEL 21
RELIANCE 18
ICICI BANK 11
SBI 11
TOTAL 88
Lifter - Draggers = -17
The selling appears to be quite intense and that explains the negative closing for the week.
POSITIVES
The sleeping giant HUL woke up and stood firm and helped steady Nifty.
HDFC ended in the green despite extreme selling pressure.
BANK NIFTY managed to end above 35000 make or break level.
NEGATIVES
Nifty failed to close above 16500 and a major barrier for the bulls has been lost for now.
BANK NIFTY fought an intense battle to stay above 35000 and it was hard to for it to even cross 35100 as it was pushed down severely from that area.
FIIs have sold heavily.
VIX is up almost 9%!
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 23-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves down to 16300-350. The resistances are now from 16500 onwards.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 34800-35000 and resistance at 35200-35500.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
FIIs have sold heavily so some more negativity on the cards.
HUL rose sharply and BRITANNIA also did well but ITC did not move much. So there is something in HUL and BRITANNIA that is not applicable to ITC.
BANK NIFTY was struggling hard to cross 35100 and the impact was direct on Nifty. The moves remind me of the slow and choppy moves that we had seen during the last year after the COVID triggered the crash.
Is this a Buy on Dips market?
If one remains stock-specific then yes, it is so - at least for support to resistance-based trades.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
20-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
