RUDRA007

Nifty spot good short candidate

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty spot cmp 13000
Elliot wave study :- on weekly time frame major elliot wave impulse phase is on verge to mature,, 20 year cycle is on verge to mature,, now if corrective wave unfolds there can be price wise and time wise correction on index..
Wave 1 is of around 5510 points ,, wave 3 is or around 10175 points which is longest and strongest wave of impulse phase and perfectly 2 time of wave 1,, wave 5 is of around 5600 points almost same as wave 1..wave 2 have corrected around 78.6% of wave 1 which is perfect retracement as per elliot wave theory.. wave 4 have retraced around 50% of wave 3 which is also as per theory..
RSI divergence :- Price is consistently making higher high from the peaks of wave 3 to wave 5,,where is RSI making Lower high high bearish divergence,, historicaly most of time it is observed that when there is bearish divergence and RSI touch 70 levels it tends to fall.. at the moment RSI is almost at 70 levels.
Chart pattern :- Rising channel formation structure can be seen in whole impulse phase,, where Support and resistance line are well respected through the cycle.. at the moment index is trading around the resistance line of the rising channel pattern,,and overbought as per concept of price action..

Comments

omg such details 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻awesome 👌 👏
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incorrect wave counts in my opinion, also novice mistake, use log or % scale if doing multi year wave analysis, skipped wave 1 completely because of that reason
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RUDRA007 bhalla1990
@bhalla1990, Thanks for your suggestion,, i think you should ignore this chart..
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Very Good Analysis .... I have a query though....
I think wave 5 will be extended as wave 1 and wave 3 are not extended
Also time taken for Wave 5 suggests that it is probably not ended as Wave 1 took 8 years wave 3 took 12 years while wave 5 we cant expect to end in just 8 months ...
Kindly take this as well into consideration . As i am new may be wrong so kindly correct me for possibilities...
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RUDRA007 ervaibhavuprvunl
@ervaibhavuprvunl, TIME Is already in consideration some time over lapping of time happens which we have to fill with time correction same as happened in 2010 to 2014 so this will not be extended,, and also one thing wave 3 is extended 2 time of wave 1,, price wise and time wise its around 1.618 times..
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Very Nice effort to analyze Nifty. Sir can you please tell after crash For how much time we rally and how much time it takes to correct as I think its not 4 years it's 24 month ie 2 years. Please sir clarify my doubt as I am learning not a pro trader. Can you please suggest any good resource for time cycle. please correct me.
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RUDRA007 Kirandeepc
@Kirandeepc please read chart carefully
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you are spot on .. Completion of 5 th wave which ran for 10 years from 2010..But the Bull run from 2003 is part of Terminal and we are in as you said wave 5 of of 3rd of of Terminal.. once it is compled the 1v of the terminal would go all the way down to test the high wave 2 of the terminal .. whihch is 2008 top... Again you are talking about50% correction to the rally from 7511... But there are 3 category of correction..( leave alone fib levels for a moment) first correction is 10-15% from the top ... and 2nd stage correction is 25-30% and 3rd stage is 55-60% from the top.. we had those type of corrections in 1992/2000 and 2008 when markets corrected more than 55% from the top and not 50% to lhe last rally... Indian markets mimic US markets to a great extent.. Like your dow chart where you are predicting more than 50% fall from the top.. the 1V the wave of Terminal might go all the way and cut or test 6357 ... thanks for your chart
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yes at the moment caution required for long position

top is just a number which can't be predicted by any one,, this is just probability of top being made

and look for slow correction
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appreciate the efforts you have taken to analyse 20 year history. though here exact top is difficult to predict it looks we are near top & can start falling anytime.caution is required to go long with strict stop loss. please reply so that i can save this chart.
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