Nifty Analysis

Nifty had a small upthrust above 11760 resistance before it started its downtrend. It held 11550 level for some time and then broke down. My hypothesis is that It may hold 11200 for a week or so and then go for the retest of potential support zone (10900-11100). As the volatility is high, smooth price action should not be expected.

Historically speaking, we had a fall of 1700-1800 points, which started from the same region in September 2018, but with a difference. If you look at the rectangular area, the buyers had some conviction which can be noticed from the tails below the red bars. But this time in 2019 correction, there is no such tail. It maybe because of political uncertainty which has been keeping buyers on the sidelines.

In future, I expect some bounce or hold at the support zone. Nifty's inability to hold at support may open the door for 10200 targets. Although this target looks overextended yet nothing is impossible in this market.

So in short either we can have the breakdown of the same order as we had in 2018 or we just hold at the mentioned support zone and resume the uptrend, which is highly likely if we have any stable government.

I hope this brief analysis makes sense to most traders.
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