NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
512 3 15
We are likely to test 10975-10995 zone and may be even 10880(best point to go long) on or before budget day.
we will use this pullback to add longs with strict sl of 10780 .
positional target 12k
Trade active
Comment: hose who took nifty near 10900- 10880 . in intraday getting 200 points
nifty low 10878
Comment:
Comment: Now everyone is asking,"What next?"

Technical Analysis is primarily study of Price & Volume and through these the mood of major market participants is gauged.
That the Budget was not Investor friendly was seen by the intraday drop to 10878 nifty spot. And I believe that the real LTCG Tax impact has yet to be seen in volumes --- so to that extent the Volume data (particularly how the Open Interest table develops in next few days) would be of utmost importance and at today EOD I would say this information is not yet complete. Still whatever it says can be seen in the OI table----with max PE writing (so far in Feb series) having occurred at 11000 strike-- this support point is easily identifiable. One has to calculate the Avg price at which this writing has occurred ( suppose this Avg comes to 150 then 11000PE writers would be supporting 10850 and not 11000) so to that extent without any major drop in 11000PE number, we may see price dropping to 10850.

Now coming to Price & Price derivatives -----
As mentioned in my previous post(s) I see the current dip as a short term correction to be measured by Hourly chart and after that there would be reversion to Daily trend (that is upward) and new highs would be seen. In addition to Price-points,my instrument for gauging the Hourly Charts' downmove is RSI.
The price action has confirmed two levels (in Hourly chart) :
10993 on lower side and 10100 on the upper side. If Hourly close starts occurring below 10993 , that would mean weakness and if Hourly close starts occurring above 11100 that means strength.
Now add RSI to it. Till hourly RSI remains below 58.55 (on Hourly closing basis) I would not initiate long position.


a poosible move
Comment: Yesterday I had mentioned that " I believe that the real LTCG Tax impact has yet to be seen in volumes --- so to that extent the Volume data (particularly how the Open Interest table develops in next few days) would be of utmost importance and at today EOD I would say this information is not yet complete."
Now a look at OI table tells me that 11000CE is being written strongly thus a resistance is building up there.
As of now 10800PE writers are holding fort ---- and we must watch this strike closely to see if it would hold further or not.
On Price Charts 10660 is first appreciable support.
http://prntscr.com/i9a62d
Comment:
10600-10660 imp support zone
Comment:
Trade closed manually
RSI below 58.5 ? what is that level? you mean to say RSI touches and 30 and reverse you will not buy.. or long trades only above 58.5?
Reply
10500 would be a good correction for short term..just a hunch..if nifty goes to 12000 before, then i will be happy to take out 75% of my portfolio..
Reply
your stop loss will be hit before Nifty hits 12000. am not saying it will happen before budget but in due course.. 11250 itsellf wil be a big obstacle to cross.
Reply
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