NQ/QQQ Weekly levels (Jan 17-20)

The Nasdaq 100 has recently seen a positive 4.5% price move and is currently back above its 9/21/55 moving averages. The price is also above the key June 16th low, with a downward trendline and 200-day moving average within striking distance. The earning season has begun, with key data releases for the week including Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims. The S&P 500 is already at a key resistance level and is likely to set the tone for the broader market. The market is potentially pricing in a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with the US dollar weakening and gold and Bitcoin strengthening. The Dec 12th high is the longer-term price target above and the Oct 13th low is the longer-term price target below. Until the Dec 12th high is broken the longer term down trend remains intact.

• Coming off a positive weekly 4.5 % price move
• Price back above 9/21/55 emas
• Price is above key June 16th low
• Downward trendline and 200 sma withing striking distance
• Earning season has begun
• Key data this week included PPI, retail sales and initial jobless claims
• S&P already at key resistance and likely to set the tone for broader market
• Market potentially pricing in a Fed pivot already
• USD has weakened and gold has strengthened along with BTC.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday US market closed
Tuesday Canadian CPI, NY Fed Manufacturing & Fed’s Williams speaks
Wednesday US PPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production & Fed’s Bullard speaks
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Housing Starts, US Continuing Claims & EIA Crude
Friday US Existing Home Sales & Fed’s Harker speaks

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday US markets closed
Tuesday EDU, GS, MS, UAL
Wednesday AA, DFS, KMI, SCHW
Thursday NFLX, PG, TAL, FAST
Friday ALLY, RF, SLB

BULLISH NOTES

Coming off positive reaction to CPI data
Potential bullish tone change
Earning season momentum
Potential positive reaction to big bank earnings
Potential positive reaction to PPI & Retail data
Improving technical price action with price above ema cloud and June 16th low.
Potential massive move above downward trend line
200sma price magnet

BEARISH NOTES

Approaching trendline resistance
Potential negative reaction to big bank earnings
Potential negative reaction to PPI and Retail sales data
S&P at key 200sma resistance to start week
Heavy sell off possible if S&P rejects at resistance
Potential retest of ema cloud and June 16th low

Comment:

Bullish follow through so far to start week. Coming into first resistance at the 618 Fib RT. Needs to break that level for continuation to the downward trend lines above. Watch the ES for confirmation above the 200 sma.

Comment:

618 Fib proved to be a wall. No bullish continuation until price get above that level. Obviously the price action in the ES is also important given the ES has failed at the 200sma.

Comment:

Rejection follow through overnight and this morning. NQ toying with the 21 ema. May find support there. Worth noting that the ES blew right through its 21 ema yesterday. Once again the June 16th low is key support to the downside.

Comment:

2MIN look at the NQ bouncing off the 21 ema.

Comment:

Here the Friday look on the 1H. Managed to hold the 21 ema yesterday. Breaking from the short term base. Above the 382 fib I'm expecting a move to the 50% fib. Must hold the 382 for trend continuation. OPEX day so may be some back and forth.

Comment:

Hit the 50% Expect resistance here.