NVDA Swing Trade – Overbought Reversal Setup (June 12, 2025)

📉 NVDA Swing Trade – Overbought Reversal Setup (June 12, 2025)
Ticker: NVDA | Bias: 🔻 Moderately Bearish
Strategy: Short-Term Swing | Timeframe: ~2 weeks
Confidence: 75% | Entry Timing: Market Open
Expiry: June 27, 2025

🔍 Market & Technical Snapshot
• Price: ~$144.67
• Trend: Weekly and M15 uptrend still intact
• RSI (Daily): ~70.63 → Overbought
• MACD: Bearish crossover on Daily
• Options Data:
 – Heavy put OI at $140 (14,803 contracts)
 – Max pain at $135 → potential pull lower
 – High call OI at $145–$150 caps upside

🧠 AI Model Breakdown
🔼 Grok/xAI (Bullish Swing):
• Calls out strong technicals, 5-min momentum
• Suggests $155C for upside play

🔽 DeepSeek (Bearish Swing – Preferred):
• Overbought daily RSI + bearish MACD
• Strong put volume + options market pressure
• Targets pullback to $138–$140 → PUT @ $140

✅ Recommended Trade Setup
🎯 Direction: PUT

📍 Strike: $140

📅 Expiry: 2025-06-27

💵 Entry Price: $2.09

🎯 Profit Target: $3.10 (+48%)

🛑 Stop Loss: $1.25 (–40%)

📈 Confidence: 75%

📏 Size: 1 contract

⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open

⚠️ Risk Considerations
• Weekly chart still bullish → risk of trend continuation
• Low VIX (17.26) = slower option premium movement
• Positive news surprise could cause upside gap
• Use tight risk controls and monitor intraday structure

💭 NVDA: Extended or just gearing up for another breakout?
📉 Drop your play below — Put buyers vs. breakout chasers 👇