ONGC: The BreakOut Trade

I was looking for a harmonic pattern completion (on the downside) before getting involved in this stock. But the stock changed my bias by breaking above a falling trend line (red) and the cup and handle pattern neckline.

Long Idea

The Risk
For getting into this trade, the risk could be (traditional) low of the handle (162) or the more aggressive 170 (calling it a breakout failure).

Profit Targets
If this break holds (the stock sustains above 175), it may easily get us to 180-182.
Move above 182 will take the stock to 189, where it may face resistance.
The Cup and Handle Target comes at around 193 which is also a historical resistance.

Short Idea
Although the setup looks bullish , we never know what's gonna happen in near future. So one should get ready with a plan B.

If this breakout fails and the stock starts trading below 170, we may look for an aggressive short.

The Risk
We ll not keep this short above 177

Profit Targets
First target would be 163.
Below 161, we may look for 155

# In this case I may also consider the pattern completion on higher time frame (wait for update).

Let's see how this trade proceeds.

Enjoy the weekend.
Aug 25
Comment: I was looking for Gartley completion near 144 (the level also protected by an up trend line).
Aug 27
Comment: Stock managed to sustain above 175. I ll hold this buy.
Aug 30
Trade closed: target reached: Target 1 just hit 181
Still bullish.


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