Paytm (One 97 Communications) has officially crossed the ₹1,050 resistance zone — a key psychological and technical level. With rising volumes, a powerful uptrend, and its first-ever positive operating cash flow, the question is:
Is this the beginning of a long-term turnaround, or another momentum trade nearing exhaustion?
Let’s break it down.
📊 Shareholding Breakdown (as of June 2025)
Promoters: 0% — no founder holding
FIIs: 54.87% — strong institutional presence
DIIs: 15.83%
Public: 12.22%
🔍 Insight: The company is fully institutionally driven. No promoter skin in the game means short-term thinking could dominate unless core numbers improve consistently.
📉 Financial Performance (FY25 vs FY24)
Metric FY25 FY24 Change
Revenue ₹6,900 Cr ₹9,978 Cr 🔻 -30%
Net Loss ₹664 Cr ₹1,422 Cr ✅ Improved
Operating Profit ₹44 Cr ₹-907 Cr ✅ Positive
Operating Cash Flow ₹651 Cr Negative ✅ First time positive
⚠️ Note: The revenue decline was largely driven by the RBI’s clampdown on Paytm Payments Bank, impacting GMV and merchant payments. Despite this, cost control and business model optimization have narrowed losses.
🌐 Market Landscape
India’s digital payments market is projected to reach $156B by 2025, and $990B by 2032, growing at ~30% CAGR
Paytm remains a leader in merchant QR and Soundbox deployments
Competing with PhonePe, Google Pay, and BharatPe, but continues to differentiate with offline innovation and embedded lending
🔮 Analysts' Outlook:
Bernstein sees 23% upside from current levels
Most houses expect break-even by FY26, profit in FY27
📈 Technical Analysis – Breakout in Motion
Weekly & Monthly Chart Highlights:
✅ Breakout above ₹1,050 confirms strength
✅ Sustained higher highs & higher lows structure
✅ Volume increasing alongside price — a strong technical signal
✅ Stock trading well above 200 EMA
Level Value
CMP ₹1,051.05
Support ₹950–980
Resistance ₹1,120–1,180 (next target zone)
RSI 64 (healthy, not overbought)
📍 If the stock sustains above ₹1,050 with strong volume, it may move swiftly toward ₹1,120+.
📉 If it dips below ₹980 again, a retest of the trendline support may follow — keep trailing your stop losses.
💬 Real Talk: Can You Earn 2–5% Per Month?
Let’s be honest. 2–5% monthly returns aren’t impossible — but they’re not handed out either.
You’ll need:
✅ The right mindset
✅ Strong risk management
✅ Patience, not panic
✅ Real learning, not shortcuts
This is not a get-rich-quick scheme.
This is a get-disciplined-slowly-and-grow-consistently path.
Time invested in learning > Money invested too early.
📝 Final Take
Paytm has broken a critical resistance. The fundamentals are catching up slowly. It's still not a “buy and forget” stock — but it’s now a "watch and ride with caution" setup.
🔁 Traders: Tight trailing stop. Momentum is your friend, not your excuse.
🧠 Investors: Wait for consistent profitability or accumulate slowly with awareness of risks.
Would you chase this breakout — or wait for confirmation above ₹1,120?
📬 Want More?
👉 Follow me here for honest, data-driven stock breakdowns
📩 Subscribe to my free newsletter — every week I share research, setups, and mindset hacks for traders & investors alike.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Is this the beginning of a long-term turnaround, or another momentum trade nearing exhaustion?
Let’s break it down.
📊 Shareholding Breakdown (as of June 2025)
Promoters: 0% — no founder holding
FIIs: 54.87% — strong institutional presence
DIIs: 15.83%
Public: 12.22%
🔍 Insight: The company is fully institutionally driven. No promoter skin in the game means short-term thinking could dominate unless core numbers improve consistently.
📉 Financial Performance (FY25 vs FY24)
Metric FY25 FY24 Change
Revenue ₹6,900 Cr ₹9,978 Cr 🔻 -30%
Net Loss ₹664 Cr ₹1,422 Cr ✅ Improved
Operating Profit ₹44 Cr ₹-907 Cr ✅ Positive
Operating Cash Flow ₹651 Cr Negative ✅ First time positive
⚠️ Note: The revenue decline was largely driven by the RBI’s clampdown on Paytm Payments Bank, impacting GMV and merchant payments. Despite this, cost control and business model optimization have narrowed losses.
🌐 Market Landscape
India’s digital payments market is projected to reach $156B by 2025, and $990B by 2032, growing at ~30% CAGR
Paytm remains a leader in merchant QR and Soundbox deployments
Competing with PhonePe, Google Pay, and BharatPe, but continues to differentiate with offline innovation and embedded lending
🔮 Analysts' Outlook:
Bernstein sees 23% upside from current levels
Most houses expect break-even by FY26, profit in FY27
📈 Technical Analysis – Breakout in Motion
Weekly & Monthly Chart Highlights:
✅ Breakout above ₹1,050 confirms strength
✅ Sustained higher highs & higher lows structure
✅ Volume increasing alongside price — a strong technical signal
✅ Stock trading well above 200 EMA
Level Value
CMP ₹1,051.05
Support ₹950–980
Resistance ₹1,120–1,180 (next target zone)
RSI 64 (healthy, not overbought)
📍 If the stock sustains above ₹1,050 with strong volume, it may move swiftly toward ₹1,120+.
📉 If it dips below ₹980 again, a retest of the trendline support may follow — keep trailing your stop losses.
💬 Real Talk: Can You Earn 2–5% Per Month?
Let’s be honest. 2–5% monthly returns aren’t impossible — but they’re not handed out either.
You’ll need:
✅ The right mindset
✅ Strong risk management
✅ Patience, not panic
✅ Real learning, not shortcuts
This is not a get-rich-quick scheme.
This is a get-disciplined-slowly-and-grow-consistently path.
Time invested in learning > Money invested too early.
📝 Final Take
Paytm has broken a critical resistance. The fundamentals are catching up slowly. It's still not a “buy and forget” stock — but it’s now a "watch and ride with caution" setup.
🔁 Traders: Tight trailing stop. Momentum is your friend, not your excuse.
🧠 Investors: Wait for consistent profitability or accumulate slowly with awareness of risks.
Would you chase this breakout — or wait for confirmation above ₹1,120?
📬 Want More?
👉 Follow me here for honest, data-driven stock breakdowns
📩 Subscribe to my free newsletter — every week I share research, setups, and mindset hacks for traders & investors alike.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Started like everyone else — chasing trends, ignoring risk.
Learned the hard way that survival beats prediction.
Now I share structured equity views and hedged options plays using Renko and macro context — built for consistency, not dopamine.
Learned the hard way that survival beats prediction.
Now I share structured equity views and hedged options plays using Renko and macro context — built for consistency, not dopamine.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Started like everyone else — chasing trends, ignoring risk.
Learned the hard way that survival beats prediction.
Now I share structured equity views and hedged options plays using Renko and macro context — built for consistency, not dopamine.
Learned the hard way that survival beats prediction.
Now I share structured equity views and hedged options plays using Renko and macro context — built for consistency, not dopamine.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.