Redington ready for breakout
1. Buy or Sell at your own risk
2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss
3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price)
4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40
5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be
a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less
b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume
c. Exhaustion gaps
d. Heavy daily volume without further upside
e. Largest one day price drop
After a long consolidation since July 2021,
REDINGTON is ready for a breakout. Volumes are also looking very good. If it grosses ₹180 with large volumes, buy with a stop at ₹160.
Other fundamentals:
1. TTM revenue growth of 12% and TTM sales growth of 111%.
2. QoQ revenue growth at 13%, QoQ EBITDA growth at 19% and QoQ PAT growth at 26%.
3. Borrowing came down from 2775Cr to 622Cr in 2021.
4. Debt to equity at 0.13 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 14.8 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.61 (greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 92.4%.
5. The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 36.85%.
6. FII holdings increased from 39.01 in September 2021 to 40.05 in December 2021.
7. The regions that we operate in, the regions of India, South Asia, Middle East, Africa, Turkey all of these countries happen to be in a very positive zone from a GDP perspective. The prognosis is going forward for each of these countries is very strong positive GDP growth and also an associated strong ICT (information and communication technology) growth as well. The reason why ICT and GDP are going hand in hand over there is, there is a very strong infrastructure push by government in these regions, in these countries to make sure that there is investment led growth that is taking place and obviously that is consumption led but largely most of these regions were driven by consumption but now they happen to be driven by investment as well and that is something which is far more sustainable from a long-term perspective. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
8. The other thing that we are seeing apart from tech consumption is a manner in which tech is getting consumed. The buying behavior is shifting. What we will buy and how they buy is shifting. So, people used to buy in a very capital intensive manner but all of that is shifting to “as-a-service” model, product to service is shift from owned to subscription base model and then people are also shifting from a business model of a brick and mortar which is very strong of the retail into the shop-showroom kind of a buying and they are shifting to a lot more online omnichannel and everything in between. There is an omnichannel world we are seeing to play out as we speak and I feel good about the fact that we are in a very strong position to maximize and capitalize on all the trends that are taking place right in the market because our play is purely technology. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
9. Being the second largest distributor of IT products in India, it is a premier distributor of products for 200 + global technology vendors. It also leverages its presence in the field of Repairs and maintenance of technology products & Infrastructure.
10. Apple, Nokia, amazon web services, SYSTIMAX SOLUTIONS, HITACHI, Red Hat, SanDisk, McAfee SECURE, Western Digital, Microsoft, HUAWEI, FORTINET, ASUS, AVAYA, AUTODESK, Acer, Canon are few of its reputed Brand partners.
11. EBITDA margin is going in right direction and that is absolutely a reality and the reason that this is taking place is because you would find that we are in the market situation where there is a demand and there is a demand which is chasing supply right now, so it is not the other way around. As demand is outstripping supply at the moment, that allows you to have a higher gross margin business and we are just close to higher EBITDA margin as well. That is one part of the business. Secondly, while Apple has been lower in business but the margin is happening. Also, a lot of these margins are driven by a growth in the enterprise business, enterprise business which is server, storage, network, software, cloud, and services around that, those are ones which is a great driver of margin and profitability. Our enterprise business in this quarter has grown 28%, so I think that is a very strong growth and it is obviously different for Middle East and different for India but overall, at a consolidated level, the business has grown that much. It is a very strong growth and that is really leading to a higher EBITDA margin. It is the business mix that is shifting a lot more towards enterprise which is giving us lot more margins. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
12. Our Cloud business for the quarter, Q3 is Rs. 411 crs and that is a very strong 35% YoY growth. Services as a proportion of Cloud business is just about 3%. It is not that great but it still trending in the right direction and as you go forward, I think that is the area like I said earlier the consumption for model across the world is changing into much more as a service model and Cloud plays straight into that, from an enterprise perspective. So we expect a very strong growth in Cloud. The margins of enterprise business are better off generally. The cloud hardware and cloud product business, runs at a similar margin as the enterprise level which will be around in the range of ~6% but the cloud services business runs at a much higher margin which is in the range of ~25% to 30%. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
13. It is difficult to hazard a guess on from the perspective of what exact growth number would you want to look for but I can tell you the prognosis for ICT industry in India is 8.8% growth over the course of next one year, the prognosis for ICT industry in the Middle East and Africa over the course of next couple of quarters which is the full year is about 2.7% to 2.8%. The thing that I can show you is that we will always be trying to grow ahead of the market beating a market by a factor, I think that is all I think it is only products to say but our growth does not come literally only from that growth, our growth has got many other dimensions. These are their dimensions of what brands we can acquire, what geographies is that we can open up for ourselves, what new markets we can really capture and how we can do share gains, all of that from playing last year the industry whatever it did and we are doing much faster than the industry and we should continue to grow faster than industry over the course of next couple of quarters. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
14. We have a double-digit growth target. I cannot give the exact number. That would be very forward-looking statement, but I can let you know that we will take target double digit growth. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
15. I think 5G opportunity you are trying to crystal gaze in three years to five years’ timeframe, 5G like I said is going to be a game changer for a lot of our industries whether it is healthcare or it is retail, it is manufacturing of the industry, food or it has any film editing, video, etc. For all those industries, 5G is going to be a game changer. It is a game changer because the way the direction in which the world is moving, it is moving towards a lot more voice enabled and a lot more video enabled, all of that is fueled by 5G. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss
3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price)
4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40
5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be
a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less
b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume
c. Exhaustion gaps
d. Heavy daily volume without further upside
e. Largest one day price drop
After a long consolidation since July 2021,
REDINGTON is ready for a breakout. Volumes are also looking very good. If it grosses ₹180 with large volumes, buy with a stop at ₹160.Other fundamentals:
1. TTM revenue growth of 12% and TTM sales growth of 111%.
2. QoQ revenue growth at 13%, QoQ EBITDA growth at 19% and QoQ PAT growth at 26%.
3. Borrowing came down from 2775Cr to 622Cr in 2021.
4. Debt to equity at 0.13 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 14.8 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.61 (greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 92.4%.
5. The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 36.85%.
6. FII holdings increased from 39.01 in September 2021 to 40.05 in December 2021.
7. The regions that we operate in, the regions of India, South Asia, Middle East, Africa, Turkey all of these countries happen to be in a very positive zone from a GDP perspective. The prognosis is going forward for each of these countries is very strong positive GDP growth and also an associated strong ICT (information and communication technology) growth as well. The reason why ICT and GDP are going hand in hand over there is, there is a very strong infrastructure push by government in these regions, in these countries to make sure that there is investment led growth that is taking place and obviously that is consumption led but largely most of these regions were driven by consumption but now they happen to be driven by investment as well and that is something which is far more sustainable from a long-term perspective. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
8. The other thing that we are seeing apart from tech consumption is a manner in which tech is getting consumed. The buying behavior is shifting. What we will buy and how they buy is shifting. So, people used to buy in a very capital intensive manner but all of that is shifting to “as-a-service” model, product to service is shift from owned to subscription base model and then people are also shifting from a business model of a brick and mortar which is very strong of the retail into the shop-showroom kind of a buying and they are shifting to a lot more online omnichannel and everything in between. There is an omnichannel world we are seeing to play out as we speak and I feel good about the fact that we are in a very strong position to maximize and capitalize on all the trends that are taking place right in the market because our play is purely technology. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
9. Being the second largest distributor of IT products in India, it is a premier distributor of products for 200 + global technology vendors. It also leverages its presence in the field of Repairs and maintenance of technology products & Infrastructure.
10. Apple, Nokia, amazon web services, SYSTIMAX SOLUTIONS, HITACHI, Red Hat, SanDisk, McAfee SECURE, Western Digital, Microsoft, HUAWEI, FORTINET, ASUS, AVAYA, AUTODESK, Acer, Canon are few of its reputed Brand partners.
11. EBITDA margin is going in right direction and that is absolutely a reality and the reason that this is taking place is because you would find that we are in the market situation where there is a demand and there is a demand which is chasing supply right now, so it is not the other way around. As demand is outstripping supply at the moment, that allows you to have a higher gross margin business and we are just close to higher EBITDA margin as well. That is one part of the business. Secondly, while Apple has been lower in business but the margin is happening. Also, a lot of these margins are driven by a growth in the enterprise business, enterprise business which is server, storage, network, software, cloud, and services around that, those are ones which is a great driver of margin and profitability. Our enterprise business in this quarter has grown 28%, so I think that is a very strong growth and it is obviously different for Middle East and different for India but overall, at a consolidated level, the business has grown that much. It is a very strong growth and that is really leading to a higher EBITDA margin. It is the business mix that is shifting a lot more towards enterprise which is giving us lot more margins. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
12. Our Cloud business for the quarter, Q3 is Rs. 411 crs and that is a very strong 35% YoY growth. Services as a proportion of Cloud business is just about 3%. It is not that great but it still trending in the right direction and as you go forward, I think that is the area like I said earlier the consumption for model across the world is changing into much more as a service model and Cloud plays straight into that, from an enterprise perspective. So we expect a very strong growth in Cloud. The margins of enterprise business are better off generally. The cloud hardware and cloud product business, runs at a similar margin as the enterprise level which will be around in the range of ~6% but the cloud services business runs at a much higher margin which is in the range of ~25% to 30%. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
13. It is difficult to hazard a guess on from the perspective of what exact growth number would you want to look for but I can tell you the prognosis for ICT industry in India is 8.8% growth over the course of next one year, the prognosis for ICT industry in the Middle East and Africa over the course of next couple of quarters which is the full year is about 2.7% to 2.8%. The thing that I can show you is that we will always be trying to grow ahead of the market beating a market by a factor, I think that is all I think it is only products to say but our growth does not come literally only from that growth, our growth has got many other dimensions. These are their dimensions of what brands we can acquire, what geographies is that we can open up for ourselves, what new markets we can really capture and how we can do share gains, all of that from playing last year the industry whatever it did and we are doing much faster than the industry and we should continue to grow faster than industry over the course of next couple of quarters. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
14. We have a double-digit growth target. I cannot give the exact number. That would be very forward-looking statement, but I can let you know that we will take target double digit growth. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
15. I think 5G opportunity you are trying to crystal gaze in three years to five years’ timeframe, 5G like I said is going to be a game changer for a lot of our industries whether it is healthcare or it is retail, it is manufacturing of the industry, food or it has any film editing, video, etc. For all those industries, 5G is going to be a game changer. It is a game changer because the way the direction in which the world is moving, it is moving towards a lot more voice enabled and a lot more video enabled, all of that is fueled by 5G. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
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