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FDC Bullish Move1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula: - Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price - Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial Stop Loss hit or RSI close below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one-day price drop After a rally since Mar'23 NSE:FDC started going down since Aug'23, but it is again trying to move up. It's a buy with a stop around ₹375. Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advice from your advisors before jumping in.
NSE:FDCLong
by akashbothra
NDR Auto Components Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since January 2022, NSE:NDRAUTO has given a breakout on Friday. Buy with a stop just below ₹460. (One can use the low of the previous bar/supertrend indicator/previous support point/fixed percentage from the buy price as stop loss also) Strengths: - 1. Quarterly sales growth is at 43% and quarterly profit growth is at 71% (June quarter) 2. Debt to equity at 0.07(less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 23.8(greater than 3 is good), Current Ratio at 2.67(greater than 1.5 is good) 3. Debtor days have decreased from 99 to 48 Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advice from your advisors before jumping in.
NSE:NDRAUTOLong
by akashbothra
Arvind Fashions Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since October 2021, NSE:ARVINDFASN gave breakout yesterday. Buy with a stop just below ₹331. (One can use the low of the previous bar/supertrend indicator/previous support point/fixed percentage from the buy price as stop loss also) Strengths: - 1. TTM Sales growth is at 65%, TTM Profit growth is at 84%, quarterly sales growth is at 188% and quarterly profit growth is at 104% 2. Debtor days have decreased from 89 to 68 3. Borrowings came down from 1755 in March 2021 to 958 in March 2022 Weaknesses: - 1. Pledged percentage 7.97% 2. Stock is trading at 6.35 times its book value 3. The company has a low interest coverage ratio. 4. The company has a low return on equity of -57.0% over the last 3 years. 5. Promoters have been decreasing their stake since June 2021 Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advice from your advisors before jumping in.
NSE:ARVINDFASNLong
by akashbothra
CMS Info Systems Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since January 2022, NSE:CMSINFO has given a breakout today. Buy with a stop just below ₹305. (One can use the low of the previous bar/supertrend indicator/previous support point/fixed percentage from the buy price as stop loss also) Strengths: - 1. TTM Sales growth is at 24%, TTM Profit growth is at 40%, quarterly sales growth is at 21% and quarterly profit growth is at 69% 2. 10 year and 5 year average ROE more than 15% 3. Debt to equity at 0.00(less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 21.7(greater than 3 is good), Current Ratio at 1.82(greater than 1.5 is good) 4. Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 18.0% 5. The company has delivered good profit growth of 23.3% CAGR over the last 5 years 6. On September 26, 2022 credit rating agency ICRA said in its credit rating report, "CMS Info Systems Limited: Ratings reaffirmed; outlook revised to Positive. The revision in outlook on CMS Info Systems Limited’s (CMS) rating reflects ICRA’s expectation that the company is likely to register a healthy revenue growth and higher accruals generation over the near to medium term (please go through the credit rating report for a better understanding) 7. FII have been increasing their stake since December 2021 Weaknesses: - 1. The company has high debtor days of 111 Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advice from your advisors before jumping in.
NSE:CMSINFOLong
by akashbothra
HPL Electric & Power Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since January 2022, BSE:HPL has given a breakout today. Buy with a stop just below ₹72. (One can use the low of the previous bar/supertrend indicator/previous support point/fixed percentage from the buy price as stop loss also)
BSE:HPLLong
by akashbothra
JTL Infra Ltd Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since February 2022, BSE:JTLINFRA has given a breakout today. Buy with a stop just below ₹242. (One can use the low of the previous bar/supertrend indicator/previous support point/fixed percentage from the buy price as stop loss also)
JLong
by akashbothra
RHI Magnesita Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since 18th April 2022, NSE:RHIM has given a breakout today. Buy with a stop just below ₹608. (One can use the low of the previous bar/supertrend indicator/previous support point/fixed percentage from the buy price as stop loss also) Strengths: - 1. TTM Sales growth is at 38%, TTM Profit growth is at 78%, quarterly sales growth is at 40% and quarterly profit growth is at 64% 2. 10 year and 5-year average ROE more than 15% 3. Debt to equity at 0.06(less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 738(greater than 3 is good), Current Ratio at 2.20(greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 56% 4. The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 19.7% 5. The company has delivered good profit growth of 31.2% CAGR over the last 5 years 6. FIIs have been increasing their stake since December 2021 (from 0.38 to 2.20 in June 2022) Weaknesses: - 1. Stock is trading at 10.9 times its book value 2. Debtor days is high at 90 days 3. Borrowings increased to 1011 Cr in March 2022 from 789 Cr in March 2021 Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advice from your advisors before jumping in.
BSE:RHIMLong
by akashbothra
Sirca Paints Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since December 2021, NSE:SIRCA has given a breakout today. Buy with a stop just below ₹580. (One can use the low of the previous bar/supertrend indicator/previous support point/fixed percentage from the buy price as stop loss also) Strengths: - 1. Quarter sales growth is at 90% and quarter profit growth is at 428%, TTM sales growth is at 40% and TTM profit growth is at 90% 2. 5-year average ROE at 15% 3. Debt to equity at 0.00(less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 841(greater than 3 is good), Current Ratio at 5.51(greater than 1.5 is good) 4. The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 20.3% 5. Debtor days have improved from 107 to 85.0 days 6. The company's median sales growth has been 15.5% in the last 10 years Weaknesses: - 1. Stock is trading at 7.67 times its book value 2. The company has a low return on equity of 11.9% for the last 3 years Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advices from your advisors before jumping in.
NSE:SIRCALong
by akashbothra
Asahi India Glass Breakout 1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since January 2022, NSE:ASAHIINDIA has given a breakout today. Buy with a stop just below ₹555. (One can use the low of the previous bar/supertrend indicator/previous support point/fixed percentage from the buy price as stop loss also)
NSE:ASAHIINDIALong
by akashbothra
Orbit Exports Breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on RSI close below 30 (or use any other method of your liking) 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a consolidation since October 2018, NSE:ORBTEXP has given a breakout today. Buy with a stop just below ₹126 (one can use a fixed percentage stop loss (e.g. 20% below the buy price) as well). Strengths: - 1. TTM Sales growth is at 102%, TTM Profit growth is at 332%, June quarter sales growth is at 158% and profit growth is at 520% 2. 10 year average ROE more than 15% 3. Debt to equity at 0.24(less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 14.8(greater than 3 is good), Current Ratio at 2.14(greater than 1.5 is good) 4. ICRA has reaffirmed the ratings of the company on 21st July 2022 (please go through the credit rating report for better understanding) 5. ADX > 30 on daily chart 6. Debtor days came down from 102 to 76 in March 2022 Weaknesses: - 1. Stock is trading at 2.37 times of its book value 2. The company has delivered a poor sales growth of -1.16% over past five years 3. Company has a low return on equity of 8.20% for last 3 years 4. Dividend payout has been low at 11.8% of profits over last 3 years 5. FIIs decreased stake from 0.18 in March 2022 to 0.02 in June 2022 Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advices from your advisors before jumping in.
NSE:ORBTEXPLong
by akashbothra
Nitin Spinners Ltd Investment IdeaNitin Spinners Ltd, promoted by the Nolkha family of Bhilwara, is one of the leading manufacturers of cotton yarn, knitted fabrics, greige and finished woven fabrics and a Government of India-recognized export house. Established in 1992, NSL started operations with open end spinning with 384 rotors. Currently, the company has an integrated textile complex with over 3 lakh spindles, 3488 rotors, 63 knitted machines and 168 air jet weaving machines. Product Portfolio Nitin Spinners was incorporated in 1993 in Bhilwara as a small-scale unit with a capacity of only 384 rotors. Over the years, Nitin Spinners has expanded the operations to include open end yarns, multi-fold open end yarns, ring spun combed yarns, multi-fold ring spun yarns, compact yarns, fancy slub yarns, core spun yarns, S and Z twist yarns, dyeable cheese cones and organic cotton yarns and blends. Their product range in knitted fabrics include single jersey, pique structures, inter-lock structures, rib structures and three thread fleeces. Capacities Nitin Spinners has an installed capacity of 2,23,056 Spindles and 2,936 Rotors, producing 50,000 tons of yarn per annum. No of installed spindles between FY16 to FY21 increased by 2x. No of installed rotors & knitting machines between FY16 to FY21 increased by 1.2x & 1.3x respectively. As of FY21 it has 168 looms for Woven fabrics and processed woven fabrics with dyeing, finishing & printing capacity of 30 mn MTS/PA. Thus, increasing contribution of value-added products going forward. Clients The customer base of the company is diversified with top ten customers accounting for only 16% of the total income of the company in FY21 (PY: 18%), with each customer having less than 5% share of the total income. NSL supplies its products to some of the renowned brands like Raymond, Donear, D’Decor, Siyaram’s, Welspun etc in domestic market and Zara, United Colors of Benetton, Hennes & Mauritz (H&M), Marco Polo in the international market. The company enjoys good relationship with these customers and receives repeat orders from them. As on December 31, 2021, the company had nearly 2.5-3 months of orders on hand. FY21 Revenue Break-up Growing contribution of Value-added products. -Yarn: 68% (FY20 73%) -Woven Fabrics: 15% (FY20: 9%) -Knitted Fabrics: 11% (FY20: 11%) -Others: 6% (FY20: 7%) FY21 Revenue Geography-wise -Export: 63% (FY20: 55%) -Domestic: 37% (FY20: 45%) Capex Capex done in 2020 Integrated Textiles Complex at Begun, Chittorgarh, by setting up 76,992 Spindles for manufacturing Cotton & Blended Yarns. 552 Rotors for Blended Open end Yarn. 168 Air-Jet Weaving Machines along with facilities for Dyeing, Printing & Finishing of Fabrics. Fresh capex of 950 cr. announced in December 2021 which should finish in 20 months with additional capacity in spinning (from 75'000 TPA to 110'000 TPA), knitted fabrics (from 8'500 to 11'000 TPA) and woven fabrics (from 30 to 40 million m/pa). On January 2022, ICRA reaffirmed Nitin Spinners Ltd’s ratings as stable. Following are the excerpts from the credit rating report: - Key Rating Strengths Experience of promoters in the textile industry - NSL was promoted by the Nolkha family in 1992. Mr. R. L. Nolkha, Chairman, has an experience of over four decades in the textile industry. At present, he is also the Vice Chairman of Confederation of Textile Industries (CITI) and a member of the Board of Governors of Textile Skill Development Council. Mr Dinesh Nolkha, Managing Director, has around three decades of industrial experience and handles yarn marketing, finance and general administration. He is also Chairman of Northern India Textile Research Association (NITRA) and a committee member of Rajasthan Textile Mills Association (RTMA). Mr Nitin Nolkha, Joint Managing Director, has around two decades of industrial experience, and looks after marketing of fabrics, procurement of materials and implementation of projects. Long and established track record with integrated nature of operations in textile industry - NSL has a track record of around three decades of operation in the Indian textile industry. The company has presence in more than 60 countries globally, deriving more than half of revenue from exports. Further, NSL is continuously investing in the latest technologies, resulting in delivering quality products. Furthermore, NSL has various accreditations pertaining to quality management (ISO 9001:2015), energy management (ISO 50001), environmental management (ISO 14001: 2015) and occupational health and safety management (OHSAS 18001). As a part of value addition and widening of its product range, the company has set up an integrated textile complex at Begun (District: Chittorgarh, State: Rajasthan) equipped with modern spinning, weaving, dyeing, finishing and printing facilities along with compliance with pollution control norms. NSL’s plant is capable of producing wide range of yarn as per the market demand. Furthermore, the company has also set up a 10.5 MW thermal power plant and 8.5 MW rooftop solar power plant for captive consumption ensuring consistent power supply. Moreover, the company is also planning to set-up another 6 MW rooftop solar power plant over a period of next 2 years to reduce its power & fuel cost. diversified product profile with large share of revenue contributed by cotton yarn - NSL is engaged in manufacturing of wide variety of cotton yarn, knitted fabrics and finished woven fabrics. Cotton yarn accounts for most of the revenue generated by the company registering around 68% of the sales in FY21 and H1FY22 (FY20: 73%) followed by woven and knitted fabrics. NSL is continuously focusing on providing value added products to its customers. It provides wide range of yarn to meet its customer requirement both for woven fabric and knitted fabric. Healthy growth in TOI (Total Operating Income) along with significant improvement in its profitability - during H1FY22 NSL’s TOI grew by 88% on y-o-y basis and stood at Rs.1,219 crore during H1FY22 largely due to significant improvement in the average sales realization of cotton yarn and knitted fabrics amidst strong export demand. It was also aided by the lower base of H1FY21 which was impacted adversely by the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic. The company has witnessed healthy growth in its export revenue as it earned 73% of its revenue from export market during H1FY22 as compared to 63% in FY21 and 54% in FY20. The sales realization of cotton yarn and knitted fabric improved by 41% and 40% respectively during H1FY22 as compared to FY21. PBILDT (profit before interest, lease, depreciation and tax) margin of the company also witnessed significant improvement by nearly 1,300 bps and 900 bps to 25% during H1FY22 as compared to H1FY21 and FY21 respectively on account of sizable jump in the spread between cotton and cotton yarn along with improved operating efficiency led by better capacity utilization. With healthy growth in scale of operation coupled with improved profitability margin, the gross cash accruals (GCA) of NSL grew by 293% on y-o-y basis and stood at Rs.197 crore during H1FY22. Improvement in leverage and debt coverage indicators during H1FY22 - The capital structure of NSL marked by overall gearing and TOL/TNW (Total Outside Liability to Total Net Worth) improved and stood at a moderate 1.05 times and 1.35 times respectively as on September 30, 2021 as compared to 1.71 times and 1.88 times respectively as on March 31, 2021 backed by healthy accretion of profit to reserves coupled with reduction in total debt level. Debt level of the company stood at Rs.734 crore as on September 30, 2021 as compared to Rs.962 crore as on March 31, 2021 primarily due to scheduled repayment of term debt coupled with lower utilization of working capital utilization as on even date in light of healthy cash accruals during H1FY22. With improvement in profitability, the debt coverage indicators also improved marked by PBILDT interest coverage and Total Debt/PBILDT of 11.02 times and 1.20 times respectively in H1FY22 as compared to 4.20 times and 3.72 times respectively in FY21. However, the capital structure and debt coverage indicators are again expected to deteriorate marginally in the medium term due to the planned large size debt-funded expansion project and expectation of higher utilization of its working capital limits considering envisaged internal accruals to be deployed for capex. Further, post commissioning of project, the company would also require additional working capital borrowing to fund its incremental working capital requirement which may also lead to some moderation in capital structure and debt coverage indicators. Key Rating Weaknesses Implementation and saleability risk associated with large size proposed debt funded capex - NSL has planned to enhance its capacity through brownfield expansion at its existing location in Rajasthan with acquisition of land adjacent to its existing plant, as company is currently running at optimum utilization of its existing capacities. The capacity addition is also proposed to meet increasing demand, penetrate newer geographies, aid widening of product portfolio and to bring competitive cost advantage by having economies of scale. The estimated cost of the project is Rs.950 crore (1.35 times of tangible net-worth as on September 30, 2021) which is to be funded through term loan of Rs.650 crore and remaining through internal accruals translating into project debt-equity ratio of 2.16:1 times. NSL has envisaged to complete the project in phase-wise manner over a period of next 20-24 months. Phase-I of the proposed capex is expected to commence from September 2023 (i.e. Q2FY24) and project is expected to be fully commissioned fully from FY25 onwards. As informed by the management, the financial closure of the project is yet to be achieved. The company is envisaging to avail term debt of Rs.650 crore for a door-to-door tenor of around 9 years (including implementation and moratorium period) along with expected benefits of interest subsidy. However, due to the large debt-funded expansion project and expectation of higher utilization of its working capital limits, the leverage and debt coverage indicators of the company are expected to remain at an elevated level, contrary to earlier expectation of improvement. Furthermore, such large size projects are susceptible to inherent implementation risks and consequently any delay in execution of the project may result in cost overrun and impact the currently envisaged timelines for cash flow generation. Apart from that, demand for cotton yarn is driven by international demand-supply dynamics and susceptible to economic cycles. Historically, the textile industry has witnessed high cyclicality wherein demand shoots up and then falls rapidly. Hence, there is a salability risk associated with the project in case of sudden drop in demand which may adversely impact the credit profile of the company. Timely completion of the project within envisaged cost parameters and realization of envisaged benefit therefrom would be a key rating sensitivity. Susceptibility to volatility in the raw material prices and foreign exchange rate fluctuations - The basic raw material consumed by NSL to produce yarn is raw cotton, which accounts for more than 90% of the total cost of production. The prices of raw cotton are volatile in nature and depends upon factors like area under production, yield for the year, vagaries of the monsoon, international demand-supply scenario, inventory carry forward from the previous year and minimum support price (MSP) decided by the government. Prices of raw cotton have been volatile over last couple of years, which translates into risk of inventory losses for the industry players; albeit at times it also leads to inventory gains. Collectively, these factors along with intense competition in the industry contribute to low bargaining power of yarn manufacturers and volatility in profitability. Further, NSL is also exposed to foreign currency rate fluctuation as the company derives significant portion of its revenue from the export market (exports accounted for 73% of the total revenue in H1FY22 and 63% in FY21). Thus, profitability margins of the company remain susceptible to any adverse movement in the foreign currency. However, the company has a policy to hedge its foreign currency exposure through forward contracts mitigating the forex exposure to an extent. Presence in fragmented, cyclical and competitive textile industry - NSL operates in a cyclical and fragmented textile industry marked by presence of many organised as well as unorganised players leading to high competition in the industry. Apart from competition, the relatively commoditized nature of cotton yarn also limits the pricing ability of the industry players to an extent. Further, textile industry is inherently cyclical in nature and closely follows the macroeconomic business cycles. The prices of raw materials and finished goods are also determined by global demand-supply scenario, hence any shift in macroeconomic environment globally also impacts the domestic textile industry. Liquidity: Adequate The liquidity of NSL remains adequate backed by healthy cash accruals and cash flow from operation apart from cushion in the form of undrawn working capital limits. Further, the liquidity of the company is envisaged to remain adequate on account of expected healthy GCA as against relatively moderate debt repayment obligation over the next one year. Furthermore, the cash accruals are likely to remain adequate to fund its proposed capex. Moreover, its current ratio improved to 1.58 times as on September 30, 2021 as compared to 1.27 times as on March 31, 2021. The average utilization of its working capital limits stood moderate at 64% for trailing six months ended November 2021. In October 2021, SEBI warned the company over violation in company's RPT policy in relation to Regulation 23 of the SEBI LODR regulations (2015). Financial information : - Ten year CAGR sales and profit at 20% and 101%. Five year CAGR sales and profit at 24% and 42%. TTM sales growth at 66% and TTM profit growth at 380%. Average Roe for last 10 years at 22%, last five years at 21% and for last three years it has been 24%. Debt to equity at 0.79 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 10.2 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.83 (greater than 1.5 is good). Debtor days improved to 33 in March 2022 from 39 in March 2020. Promoter holding increased from 55.82 in December 2019 to 56.25 in December 2021. FII stake increased from 1.23 in June 2021 to 4.84 in March 2022. On the chart I have tried to pinpoint the confluence of multiple supports and resistances as demand zones. These demand zones can prove to be good areas to accumulate this stock but prices can go down below these support levels too and stay there for many months. Buy at your own risk. One will do good if he/she can find the demand zones with at least three supports and three resistances and buy there. 200 week moving average also acts as a good support. Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advices from your advisors before jumping in.
NSE:NITINSPINLong
by akashbothra
Tanfac Industries Investment IdeaIncorporated in 1972, Tanfac Industries Ltd is a joint sector company promoted by Aditya Birla Group, which holds 25% stake in the company, and Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO). The company began commercial production in March 1985 and is amongst the leading producers of Hydrofluoric Acid and its derivatives. Tanfac is engaged in the manufacture of inorganic fluorine-based chemicals like Anhydrous Hydrofluoric acid, Sulphuric Acid, Oleum, Aluminum Fluoride, Potassium Fluoride, Potassium Bifluoride, Boron Trifluoride Complexes, Calcium Sulphate (Gypsum), IsoButyl Acetophenone, Acetic Acid, Peracetic Acid and Poly Aluminum Chloride, etc. The company's manufacturing facilities are spread over 60 acres in the chemical complex of SIPCOT, Cuddalore. Currently, the company has an Androus Hydrofluoric Acid capacity of 15,600 metric tons per annum (MTPA), 15,600 MTPA of Aluminum Fluoride, 81,600 MTPA of sulphuric acid and 3,400 MTPA of specialty fluorides. The company's products find applications in industries such as aluminum smelting, petroleum refining, refrigerant gases, steel re-rolling, glass, ceramics, sugar, fertilizers, and heavy water. The Company operates in a single segment i.e., Fluoro-chemicals in India. In the FY21, the company did sale of manufactured goods to the tune of Rs. 146 Cr., which comprised of Aluminium Fluoride 2%, AHF Acid and Sulphuric Acid 60%, Specialty Chemicals 38%. It has technical tie ups with - Davy Process, Switzerland - for Aluminium Fluoride (Know-how and equipment) CHENCO,Germany - for Hydrofluoric Acid (Know-how and equipment) Grasim Industries Limited - for Sulphuric Acid / Oleum (Design and Erection) The company's ratings were upgraded by ICRA in November 2021. Excerpts from the report are as follows: - Credit strengths Long track record in fluorochemical manufacturing – TIL has an extensive track record of manufacturing fluorochemical products for more than three decades. Healthy financial risk profile – The company’s financial profile has strengthened over the years with improved profitability levels and limited dependence on debt. On the back of healthy profitability, the company had repaid the ICD from the parent Group in FY2019 and redeemed the preference share in FY2020 and stood debt free as on September 30, 2021 with healthy capital structure and coverage indicators. In FY2021, while the company’s revenue moderated by 10% to Rs 147.9 crore on account of decline in HF sales, margins witnessed healthy improvement due to significant increase in sales realisation of specialty fluorides due to increased demand. In H1 FY2022, revenue and profitability improved driven by new ALF orders executed, significant increase in realisation of sulphuric acid, continued high realisation of speciality fluorides and YoY improvement in HF sales volumes. Going forward, with improved HF capacity utilisation, healthy demand for the products and improvement in cost structure, the revenue and profitability is expected to remain healthy. Increased product diversification in recent years – TIL has focused on product diversification and margin accretive revenue streams in recent years, which has resulted in increased share of speciality fluorides over the last few years although the revenue share remained moderate till FY2020 owing to increased revenue contribution from major segment. However, due to increased demand on account of the pandemic, the specialty fluorides segment witnessed healthy sales growth in FY2021 and H1 FY2022 witnessing significant improvement in revenue share as well. Support from Aditya Birla Group – TIL is a joint sector company between Aditya Birla Group and Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO). Despite having only 25% stake in TIL as per the Government of India guideline for joint sector undertakings, the management control in the company vests with the Aditya Birla Group. TIL had received financial support from the Group in the past at times of distress. Further, being part of the Aditya Birla Group, also enables TIL to enjoy better terms with suppliers. Credit challenges Moderate scale of operations - TIL has moderate scale of operations, with operating income in the range of Rs 120–220 crore during FY2015–FY2021 which however witnessed significant improvement in H1 FY2022. Although the increased sales realisation of H2SO4 and the increased demand for specialty fluoride that supported the revenue in H1 FY2022 is not expected to be sustainable, the increased capacity utilisation of HF facility and healthy demand for the products is expected to support the revenue of the company in coming fiscals. Revenue and profitability remain susceptible to market disruptions, end user cyclicality and resultant price volatility - TIL faces competition from domestic manufacturers as well as from imports, especially from China, which limits its pricing power. Being commodity chemicals, the price of HF, ALF and H2SO4 are exposed to demand-supply scenario and face considerable price volatility. In addition, the demand and price for the products are also susceptible to the cyclicality inherent to the end user industries. Hence the company’s profitability is exposed to volatility in the spread between global products and raw material prices. However, the cost control measures undertaken by the company over the years have mitigated the impact to some extent. While the profitability is also exposed to forex fluctuations, the company has a hedging policy in place limiting the adverse impact. Increasing environmental scrutiny on transport of HF - TIL is exposed to increasing environmental scrutiny on transport of HF and any adverse changes in environmental policies will be a credit challenge. While the regulations related to transportation of the HF is expected to get more stringent going forward, the company has transportation permit from PESO valid for 3 years mitigating the risk in near term. Liquidity position: Strong Although the company is undertaking a modernization capex to be completed by FY2023 which is planned to be funded through internal accruals and has another sizeable debt funded capex plan in near future, the liquidity is expected to remain strong on the back of healthy cash flow from operations, healthy unencumbered cash and bank balance of ~Rs 32 crore as on September 30, 2021, no term debt repayment obligations and availability of unutilised working capital limits. On February 2022 though, ICRA informed that Ratings were placed on watch because of the following developments: - On February 1, 2022, Tanfac Industries Limited (TIL/the company) announced that certain members of the promoter and promoter group, namely Birla Group Holdings Private Limited (BGHPL), Pilani Investments Industries Corporation Ltd and Mr. Askaran Agarwala, have agreed to sell their cumulative stake of 24.96% in the company to Anupam Rasayan India Private Limited (ARIPL) at a total consideration of Rs. 148.14 core. In view of the proposed transaction, TIL, ARIPL, BGHPL and Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation Limited (TIDCO) have entered into an amendment of the joint venture agreement whereby BGHPL will be replaced by ARIL as a joint venture party, subject to the completion of certain regulatory requirements. In addition, ARIL has also announced an open offer to the public shareholders of TIL whereby it plans to acquire up to 26.0% stake in the company for a total consideration of Rs 154.31 crore. ICRA says it has taken note of the above events and has placed the ratings of TIL under watch with developing implications. ICRA will monitor the progress of the acquisition as well as completion of the open offer as per the proposed timelines and its impact on the credit profile of the company. Accordingly, ICRA will take an appropriate rating action, going forward. On 6th May Tanfac Industries informed the Stock Exchange that they have approved the Postal Ballot Notice for obtaining the approval of the appointment of Mr. Afzal Harunbhai Malkani (DIN : 07194226) as the Non-Executive and Non-Indenpent Director of the Company by the members of the Company. Mr.Afzal Malkani had joined Anupam Rasayan India Limited (a chemical manufacturing entity listed in March 2021 on BSE & NSE) in October 28, 2005 and was appointed as its Chief Financial Officer with effect from December 1, 2014. He has experience in corporate financing, fund raising from banks, financial institutions, private equity, treasury management, business development, mergers & acquisitions and has been heading the accounts, finance, debt management, investor relations etc. He had led the IPO of size INR 760 crores of Anupam Rasayan India Limited in 2020-21. Financial information: - Five year CAGR sales and profit at 20% and 74%. TTM sales growth at 116% and TTM profit growth at 205%. Average Roe for last 10 years at 33%, last five years at 46% and for last three years it has been 36%. Debt to equity at 0.00 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 71.5 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 2.85 (greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 84.2%. Debtor days improved to 28 in March 2022 from 40 in March 2021. On the chart I have tried to pinpoint the confluence of multiple supports and resistances as demand zones. These demand zones can prove to be good areas to accumulate this stock but prices can go down below these support levels too and stay there for many months. Buy at your own risk. One will do good if he/she can find the demand zones with at least three supports and three resistances and buy there. 200 week moving average also acts as a good support. Disclaimer : I am not SEBI Registered. Do trade or invest at your own risk, I am not responsible for any losses and won't claim anything from your profits either. Take financial advices from your advisors before jumping in.
BSE:TANFACINDLong
by akashbothra
Grauer & Weil break out and pull back1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop after a consolidation since October 2021, BSE:GRAUWEIL gave a break out on 28th April and pulled back today to it's breakout point. It will be a buy if it crosses ₹72 once again with the stop at ₹67. Other fundamentals: 1. GWIL, with track record of over six decades in electroplating business continues to have leadership position in the domestic electroplating chemical industry with around 30% market share. GWIL is promoted by More family with Mr. Umeshkumar More, currently serving as Chairman, being associated with the company since July 1969. His more than five decades of experience helps the company in strategic planning and expansion of the business. 2. GWIL has planned total capex of around Rs.150 crore in next three years period ending FY24 whereby majority of the capex pertains to expansion of its capacity for industrial paints, setting up a research & development centre, expanding capacity of its electroplating chemicals with some minor capex at each of its manufacturing facilities. Also, its earlier envisaged capex for mall expansion has been put on hold in the medium term. This capex programme is proposed to be entirely funded from internal accruals and from its available liquidity as it has no plan to avail any term debt for the same. Realization of envisaged returns from the capex would be critical to maintain its comfortable return on capital employed. 3. Owing to its robust cash accruals, the company continues to finance its operational and capex requirements largely through internal accruals leading to strong capital structure marked by overall gearing of 0.04 times as on March 31, 2021. GWIL continued to have no long-term debt except the unsecured loans from promoters and lease liability. Also, with no major debt funded capex planned till FY24, the overall gearing of the company is expected to remain at comfortable level. On the back of very minimal debt and strong accruals, its debt coverage indicators also stood highly comfortable marked by Total Debt/GCA of 0.25 times and interest coverage of 39.47 times during FY21. 4. The company’s revenue profile is moderately diversified owing to its operations under different business divisions such as surface finishing (of which electroplating chemicals, paints & oil & lubricants are sub-divisions) engineering and shopping mall. Furthermore, electroplating chemical division has wide basket of products and the chemicals manufactured by the company finds its application in various industries such as automobiles, consumer durables, gems and jewellery, etc. Thus, GWIL benefits from the well-diversified product portfolio of chemical segment. Moreover, the company is also involved in the manufacturing of industrial paints, which is the second-largest contributor to the company’s revenue. The product profile in Paints include high performance industrial coatings (with applications in refineries, oil exploration, petrochemicals), Pipeline Coatings (duly approved by WRAS-UK and NSF –USA for application in drinking water pipelines, Irrigation water Intercity pipelines), Marine Coatings (having applications in ships for long life Anti-fouling coatings besides aerospace and defence coatings. The engineering division is involved in manufacturing and providing turnkey solution for electroplating plants, effluent treatment plants and other engineering products. Over 800 plants of varied types have been commissioned by division worldwide till now. Apart from the above, the company has shopping mall spread over 475,000 sq. ft. at Kandivali (Mumbai suburbs) with 247,000 sq.ft. of leasable area. Thus, the diversified revenue profile has helped the company to reduce its dependency as well as tide over any downturn in a particular business segment as was evident during FY21 (refers to the period April 1 to March 31) when income and profitability of shoppertainment segment had declined, the same was largely compensated by improved performance of its engineering division. 5. Last 10 years average ROE greater than 15%. 6. Debt to equity at 0.02 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 114 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 3.31 (greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 76.4%. 7. The company has a dividend yield of 0.72% (consistent dividend payer since 2010). 8. FII stake increased since September 2020 from 0.07% to 0.71% in March 2022. 9. Risk: - a) In chemical segment, the company’s raw materials are various kinds of metals, which are used in powder form for plating/coating, which continue to remain highly volatile. On the other hand, the industrial paints have crude oil derivatives as majority of its raw materials whereby prices of raw materials are linked to crude oil price, which is again volatile in nature. b) In chemical division, GWIL has been largely able to pass on increase in raw material prices in a timely manner on the back of its leadership position in the electroplating chemical segment. However, as pricing for supply of industrial paints are decided at the time of bidding, the profit margins of paints division remain exposed to volatility in the input prices. Moreover, being relatively small player in this division, the pricing power is also low. c) As the company’s operations involve import/export of raw material and sales of its products, it involves transactions in foreign currencies which are done mostly in Yen, USD, and Euro. During FY21, the imports accounted for Rs.58.99 crore as against exports of Rs.60.57 crore. The company has policy of hedging majority of its imports; however, the receivables are normally kept open and hence are exposed to foreign exchange fluctuation.
BSE:GRAUWEILLong
by akashbothra
Rupa Higher Top Higher Bottom1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After taking support at the 385-400 support zone, NSE:RUPA has created a high volume higher top higher bottom pattern on the daily charts. Buy with a stop just below Rs.434. Rupa has registered a TTM sales growth of 42% and TTM profit growth of 96% in the last quarter. Other fundamentals: 1. Average ROE for last 3,5 and 10 years above 15% 2. Current PE of 18.78 is much less than 10 years average PE of 26 3. Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 31.16% (consistent dividend payer since 2010) 4. Debt to equity at 0.43 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 18.4 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.98 (greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 72.4%. 5. There are 18 sub-brands under brand Rupa -Frontline, Jon, Air, Macroman, Euro, Bumchums, Torrido, Thermocot, Kidline, Footline, Softline, among others. 6. Exclusive license for the brands: a) French Connection UK (FCUK) b) Fruit of the Loom (FOTL) The FCUK and FOTL products have been launched at different locations in India. 7. Company's growth plans include expansion of footprints in South and Central India, as well as beyond Indian shores into international markets viz, the Middle East, South Asia, South East Asia, and others.
NSE:RUPALong
by akashbothra
Meghmani Finechem high volume breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After consolidation since October 2021, NSE:MFL has given a high volume breakout today. Buy with a stop at ₹1000. Other fundamentals: 1. Meghmani Finechem Limited (MFL) is part of the Ahmedabad-based Meghmani Group. It was incorporated in September 2007 as a subsidiary of Meghmani Organics Ltd (MOL) but was demerged in April 2021. The company is primarily engaged in manufacturing and selling of Chlor Alkali & its Derivatives with backward and forward integration facilities and also engaged in trading of Agrochemical products. 2. MFL is the fourth largest amanufactururer of Chlor-Alkali and its Derivatives company in India. The company manufactures - a. Chloralkalis: Caustic Soda Lye and Flakes, Liquid Chlorine, Hydrogen, Caustic Potash Lye and Flakes, etc. b. Derivatives:The company has Chlor-Alkali Derivatives in the form of Chloromethanes and Hydrogen Peroxide. 3. The Company’s manufacturing complex is located in a 60-hectare facility in Dahej (Gujarat). The Company possessed the following capacities as of March 31, 2021: ~4th largest capacity of Caustic Soda at 2,94,000 TPA ~2nd largest capacity of Caustic Potash at 21,000 TPA ~3rd largest capacity of Chloromethanes at 50,000 TPA ~3rd largest capacity of Hydrogen Peroxide at 60,000 TPA ~ The company, in the second year of operations of the Chloromethanes plant, achieved 100% capacity utilization (FY 2020-21). ~The overall production of the company increased from 179 KTA in FY 2019-20 to 302 KTA in FY 2020-21, recording 70% growth. 4. The company's products are used in industries like Refinery, Paper & Pulp, Soaps & Detergents, Textiles, Dyes & Pigments, Pharma, Agro-Chem, Paints & Coatings, Alumina, Pesticides, etc. 5. The company is setting up the EPC and CPVC Resins plants which are expected to be commissioned by FY 2022 and 2023 respectively. a. Epichlorohydrin (ECH): Initiated in the Dahej plant, MFL will become the first manufacturer of Epichlorohydrin in India. The project will have a capacity of 50,000 TPA and will be based on TechnipFMC’s Epicerol technology. Once operational, it would be the first plant in India to run on 100% renewable resources. b. Chlorinated polyvinyl chloride (CPVC): The Company announced the setting up of the Chlorinated Polyvinyl Chloride (CPVC Resin) project in Dahej with a capacity of 30,000 TPA. The total cost of the project would be Rs.190Crs. 6. Quarter sales growth at 90%, quarter profit growth at 184%, TTM sales growth at 89% and TTM profit growth at 128% (December 2021). 7. Average ROE for the last five years at 25%. 8. March quarter results are due on 25th April.
NSE:EPIGRALLong
by akashbothra
Apcotex Breakout, Pullback and Bounce1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After the consolidation since September 2021, NSE:APCOTEXIND gave a high volume breakout on 19th April. On 20th April it pulled back to the support level and gave a bounce on Friday. It's a buy with a stop at ₹404. Other fundamentals: 1. TTM sales growth of 85% and TTM profit growth of 267% (December quarter). 2. Average Roe for last ten years at 15%. 3. Debt to equity at 0.10 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 36.6 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.73 (greater than 1.5 is good). 4. FII steak increased since September 2021 from 0.40% to 0.91% in March 2022. 5. About the company: Apcotex Industries Ltd is engaged in the production of various types of synthetic latex and synthetic rubber. It was started in 1980 as a division of Asian Paints, manufacturing synthetic latex and was later spun-off as a separate company under the leadership of Mr. Atul Choksey, former MD of Asian Paints Ltd. 6. The company is a leading producer of Synthetic Rubber and Synthetic Latex in India :- a. Synthetic Rubber :- Nitrile Rubber, High Styrene Rubber, Nitrile Rubber, Nitrile Polyblends and Nitrile powder. b. Synthetic Latex :- XSB Latex, BP Latex, Styrene acrylics and Nitrile Latex. It has one of the broadest ranges of Emulsion polymers in the market and is the only manufacturer of NBR (Nitrile Butadiene rubber) in India. 7. The company exports its goods to 40 countries across various industry segments. During FY21, Domestic sales accounted for 82% revenues and exports accounted for the rest 18% revenues. 8. The company's customer base includes companies like ITC, JK Paper, Pidilite Industries, MRF, SRF, Century Enka, BILT, Paragon, Ajanta, Footwear, Relaxo, Jayshree Polymers, and others. 9. Long term credit rating has been upgraded by ICRA on March 2022. a. The upgrade of the long-term rating of Apcotex Industries Limited (AIL) factors in ICRA’s expectations that the company will be able to maintain a healthy financial performance, led by consistent revenue growth and a sustained margin profile. While the prices of raw materials have increased substantially in the current fiscal, the company passed on the same to its customers and hence was able to sustain the operating margins in a range of 13-16% in the last four quarters. The company is undertaking sizeable capex, which is likely to drive revenue growth, apart from diversifying the product mix and customer mix. b. The ratings continue to draw comfort from a healthy capital structure and debt protection metrics due to strong tangible net worth and limited reliance on debt. While the metrics are likely to moderate due to the ongoing planned capex, they are likely to remain comfortable. The company’s liquidity profile has remained strong due to healthy operational cash flows and availability of healthy cash and investments. The rating draws comfort from AIL’s strong market position in the synthetic rubber and synthetic latex segments in India and its promoter background with an experience of more than three decades in the industry. The ratings factor in the company’s diversified customer base across various end-user industries. 10. Risk: 60-70% of the company's operating cost comprises of raw materials. Its main raw materials are Butadiene, Styrene and Acrylonitrile. These raw materials are petroleum derivates and hence their prices fluctuate with crude prices. 11. Quarterly results are due on 27th April.
NSE:APCOTEXINDLong
by akashbothra
VBL good quarterly results1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop On 18th April 2022 NSE:VBL gave a high volume breakout after a consolidation since November 2021. It will be a good buy if it comes down to the support zone of ₹1000 and ₹1040 with a stop at ₹990. It posted a very good set of numbers for the quarter ending on 31st March 2022. its quarterly sales increased by 26%, quarterly profit increased by 96%, TTM sales increased by 34% and TTM profit increased by 103%. Other fundamentals: 1. Debt to equity at 0.82 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 7.75 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.72 (greater than 1.5 is good). 2. The company has delivered good profit growth of 72.11% CAGR over last 5 years. 3. The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 17.64%. 4. The management of VBL Recommended the Bonus Issue of Equity Shares in the proportion of 1 (One) Equity Share of Rs. 10/- each for every 2 (Two) Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- each held by the shareholders of the Company. 5. Varun beverages is a part of the RJ group, which is the largest franchisee for Pizza Hut, KFC, Cream Bell and Costa Coffee in India. 6. The Company’s solid and well-entrenched distribution network covers urban, semi-urban, and rural markets, addressing demands of a wide range of consumers. The Company has 32 state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities in India, 6 internationally. It has a robust supply chain with 90+ owned depots, 2,500+ owned vehicles, 1,500+ primary distributors, and currently installed 775,000+ visi-coolers. 7. The Company has established backward integration facilities for production of preforms, crowns, plastic closures, corrugated boxes, corrugated pads, plastic crates, and shrink-wrap films in certain facilities to ensure operational efficiencies and high quality standards. The company also owns 55% stake (35% indirectly & 20% directly) in Lunarmech Technologies Pvt. Ltd. which produces and sells PET bottles caps and crown caps. 8. The company uses around 66,000 MT PET resin as packaging material for its finished products annually. It has engaged with GEM Enviro Management Pvt Ltd for phased implementation of 100% recycling of used PET bottles through collection from end users by placing dustbins reverse vending machines, direct collection from Institutions, etc. 9. In 2019, VBL concluded the acquisition of franchise rights in South and West regions from PepsiCo for a national bottling, sales and distribution footprint in 7 States and 5 Union Territories of India. With these acquisitions, the Company has significantly reinforced its partnership with PepsiCo and now account for over 80% of their India’s beverage sales volumes from 51% earlier. 10. In 2019, Pepsi co extended the bottling appointment and trademark license agreement from Oct 2, 2022 to Apr 30, 2039. 11. Risks: - a) The Company’s operations span 6 countries – 3 in the Indian Subcontinent (India, Sri Lanka, Nepal), which contributed 85% to total revenues. Currently Nepal and Sri Lanka are going through economic crisis. b) The beverage industry remains susceptible to changes in government regulations regarding the content of soft drinks, and to increasing environmental concerns in India about ground water depletion and discharge of effluents by bottling plants. Further, evolving concerns related to disposal of plastic may impact the beverages industry.
VLong
by akashbothra
Gufic breakout, pullback & bounce back 1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After consolidation since January 2022, NSE:GUFICBIO gave a break out of 12th April, went down below the support level and has given a bounce back today. Buy with a stop at ₹236. Other fundamentals: 1. The company has delivered good profit growth of 43.44% CAGR over last 5 years. 2. The company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 27.89%. 3. The company's median sales growth is 22.02% of last 10 year. 4. TTM sales growth of 71% and TTM profit growth of 160%. 5. Borrowings came down from ₹126cr on March 2020 to ₹35cr on September 2021. 6. Promoter holding increased from 65% in June 2021 to 75% in September 2021. 7. CRISIL Ratings has revised its outlook on the long-term bank facilities of Gufic Biosciences Limited (GBL) to 'Positive' from 'Stable', while reaffirming the rating at 'CRISIL BBB+'. and has assigned its 'CRISIL A2' rating to the short-term bank facility. The outlook revision reflects improvement in GBL’s business risk profile in fiscal 2022, marked by expected revenue of Rs. 750 crore, increase from Rs 488 crores in fiscal 2021, driven by capacity expansion and higher revenue from critical drugs. Operating profitability improved in fiscal 2021 to 17.6% and expected to sustain in fiscal 2022. With further capacity expansion in FY2023, revenue is expected to grow in future years. Hence, sustenance of operating margin and revenue growth will remain key rating sensitivity factors. Financial profile and liquidity continue to be strong. 8. GBL obtained various certifications and approvals for its manufacturing facilities and diversified its product portfolio through continuous research and development. The top 10 products contributed to 34% of revenue till the third quarter of fiscal 2022. Revenue grew to an estimated Rs 750 crore in fiscal 2022 from Rs 300 crore in fiscal 2018. 9. Financial risk should remain strong despite the huge, debt-funded capex to be undertaken in fiscal 2023. Networth was Rs 173 crore as on March 31, 2021 and is estimated at Rs 250 crore on March 31, 2022. Its controlled reliance on external debt has led to comfortable gearing and total outside liabilities to adjusted networth (TOLANW) ratios, which are estimated to be 0.14-0.15 times and 0.8-0.9 times, respectively in fiscal 2022. Debt protection metrics are robust, with interest coverage and net cash accrual to adjusted debt ratios estimated at 25 times and 2.5 times, respectively, for fiscal 2022.
NSE:GUFICBIOLong
by akashbothra
Redington ready for breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a long consolidation since July 2021, NSE:REDINGTON is ready for a breakout. Volumes are also looking very good. If it grosses ₹180 with large volumes, buy with a stop at ₹160. Other fundamentals: 1. TTM revenue growth of 12% and TTM sales growth of 111%. 2. QoQ revenue growth at 13%, QoQ EBITDA growth at 19% and QoQ PAT growth at 26%. 3. Borrowing came down from 2775Cr to 622Cr in 2021. 4. Debt to equity at 0.13 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 14.8 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.61 (greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 92.4%. 5. The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 36.85%. 6. FII holdings increased from 39.01 in September 2021 to 40.05 in December 2021. 7. The regions that we operate in, the regions of India, South Asia, Middle East, Africa, Turkey all of these countries happen to be in a very positive zone from a GDP perspective. The prognosis is going forward for each of these countries is very strong positive GDP growth and also an associated strong ICT (information and communication technology) growth as well. The reason why ICT and GDP are going hand in hand over there is, there is a very strong infrastructure push by government in these regions, in these countries to make sure that there is investment led growth that is taking place and obviously that is consumption led but largely most of these regions were driven by consumption but now they happen to be driven by investment as well and that is something which is far more sustainable from a long-term perspective. (excerpt from Concall February 22) 8. The other thing that we are seeing apart from tech consumption is a manner in which tech is getting consumed. The buying behavior is shifting. What we will buy and how they buy is shifting. So, people used to buy in a very capital intensive manner but all of that is shifting to “as-a-service” model, product to service is shift from owned to subscription base model and then people are also shifting from a business model of a brick and mortar which is very strong of the retail into the shop-showroom kind of a buying and they are shifting to a lot more online omnichannel and everything in between. There is an omnichannel world we are seeing to play out as we speak and I feel good about the fact that we are in a very strong position to maximize and capitalize on all the trends that are taking place right in the market because our play is purely technology. (excerpt from Concall February 22) 9. Being the second largest distributor of IT products in India, it is a premier distributor of products for 200 + global technology vendors. It also leverages its presence in the field of Repairs and maintenance of technology products & Infrastructure. 10. Apple, Nokia, amazon web services, SYSTIMAX SOLUTIONS, HITACHI, Red Hat, SanDisk, McAfee SECURE, Western Digital, Microsoft, HUAWEI, FORTINET, ASUS, AVAYA, AUTODESK, Acer, Canon are few of its reputed Brand partners. 11. EBITDA margin is going in right direction and that is absolutely a reality and the reason that this is taking place is because you would find that we are in the market situation where there is a demand and there is a demand which is chasing supply right now, so it is not the other way around. As demand is outstripping supply at the moment, that allows you to have a higher gross margin business and we are just close to higher EBITDA margin as well. That is one part of the business. Secondly, while Apple has been lower in business but the margin is happening. Also, a lot of these margins are driven by a growth in the enterprise business, enterprise business which is server, storage, network, software, cloud, and services around that, those are ones which is a great driver of margin and profitability. Our enterprise business in this quarter has grown 28%, so I think that is a very strong growth and it is obviously different for Middle East and different for India but overall, at a consolidated level, the business has grown that much. It is a very strong growth and that is really leading to a higher EBITDA margin. It is the business mix that is shifting a lot more towards enterprise which is giving us lot more margins. (excerpt from Concall February 22) 12. Our Cloud business for the quarter, Q3 is Rs. 411 crs and that is a very strong 35% YoY growth. Services as a proportion of Cloud business is just about 3%. It is not that great but it still trending in the right direction and as you go forward, I think that is the area like I said earlier the consumption for model across the world is changing into much more as a service model and Cloud plays straight into that, from an enterprise perspective. So we expect a very strong growth in Cloud. The margins of enterprise business are better off generally. The cloud hardware and cloud product business, runs at a similar margin as the enterprise level which will be around in the range of ~6% but the cloud services business runs at a much higher margin which is in the range of ~25% to 30%. (excerpt from Concall February 22) 13. It is difficult to hazard a guess on from the perspective of what exact growth number would you want to look for but I can tell you the prognosis for ICT industry in India is 8.8% growth over the course of next one year, the prognosis for ICT industry in the Middle East and Africa over the course of next couple of quarters which is the full year is about 2.7% to 2.8%. The thing that I can show you is that we will always be trying to grow ahead of the market beating a market by a factor, I think that is all I think it is only products to say but our growth does not come literally only from that growth, our growth has got many other dimensions. These are their dimensions of what brands we can acquire, what geographies is that we can open up for ourselves, what new markets we can really capture and how we can do share gains, all of that from playing last year the industry whatever it did and we are doing much faster than the industry and we should continue to grow faster than industry over the course of next couple of quarters. (excerpt from Concall February 22) 14. We have a double-digit growth target. I cannot give the exact number. That would be very forward-looking statement, but I can let you know that we will take target double digit growth. (excerpt from Concall February 22) 15. I think 5G opportunity you are trying to crystal gaze in three years to five years’ timeframe, 5G like I said is going to be a game changer for a lot of our industries whether it is healthcare or it is retail, it is manufacturing of the industry, food or it has any film editing, video, etc. For all those industries, 5G is going to be a game changer. It is a game changer because the way the direction in which the world is moving, it is moving towards a lot more voice enabled and a lot more video enabled, all of that is fueled by 5G. (excerpt from Concall February 22)
NSE:REDINGTONLong
by akashbothra
GPIL support retest and bounce back1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After a long consolidation since July 2021, NSE:GPIL gave a high volume breakout on 11th April. On 12th April it retested its support level and bounced back. It is a buy with a stop just below his 432. Other fundamentals: 1. CRISIL Ratings had upgraded its rating on the long-term bank facilities of GPIL to 'CRISIL A+/Stable’ from ‘CRISIL A/Stable’, and has reaffirmed its ‘CRISIL A1’ rating on the short-term bank facilities. 2. It is expected that GPIL’s credit risk profile will improve in the near term aided by faster-than-anticipated deleveraging. On standalone basis, the company turned term debt free in the second quarter of fiscal 2022 and healthy liquidity is expected to be maintained going forward. As a result, consolidated leverage has improved significantly, as indicated by improvement in debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) ratio of 0.7 times as on March 31, 2021, compared with 2.7 times a year earlier. Operating efficiency should improve further as the entire iron ore requirement will be met through captive mines after ramp up of production on incremental capacity. Additionally, the augmentation of steel-making capacity in the current fiscal will strengthen the market position further. 3. High realisations across the steel industry boosted the performance of GPIL in fiscal 2021 despite disruptions amid the Covid-19 pandemic and the performance is likely to remain strong this fiscal as well. Standalone operating income and operating profit grew by 32% and 139%, respectively, in fiscal 2021, and are likely to further rise in fiscal 2022, as evident from the first quarter financial performance. Operating profitability will structurally improve over the medium term, supported by enhanced backward linkages leading to cost saving, ensuring healthy cash generation. 4. The company has a plan for setting up a greenfield integrated steel plant with capacity of 1.5-2 million tonne (MT) of flat products at estimated capital outlay of around Rs 4,000 crore over the next 3-5 years. The company has initiated the process for land acquisition and other regulatory clearances for setting up the project. Given the initial stage of the project, the structure including the funding mix and other modalities are not yet finalized. According to the management the debt to Ebitda ratio will not exceed 1 time for the entire tenure of the project. 5. The company meets 100% of its power requirement through its captive power capacity of 73 MW (WHRS 42 MW, biomass 20 MW and coal 11 MW) and an additional 25 MW by an arrangement with Jagdamba Power & Alloys Ltd (JPAL; associate company). In addition, the company has coal linkages with Coal India Ltd for around 46% of its requirement. Forward integration has led to diversified products (wire rods, hard bright wires and pre-fab structures) and revenue profile with the flexibility of selling products based on realisations. Furthermore, efficiency measures, such as setting up an iron ore beneficiation plant (to improve the iron content and thus realisation) and hot rolling mill in the same premises (reduces transportation cost and reheating requirement) and a captive solar photovoltaic plant for increased steel capacity, will improve the operating efficiency and profitability sustainably. 6. Consolidated cash accrual, expected over Rs 1,000 crore in fiscal 2022, will comfortably cover minimal term debt obligation. 7. TTM sales growth at 48% and TTM profit growth at 295%. 8. The company has delivered good profit growth of 55.88% CAGR over last 5 years. 9. Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 26.19%. 10. Debt to equity at 0.18 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 31.4 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 2.25 (greater than 1.5 is good). 11. Debt reduced from ₹2214Cr. in 2017 to ₹469Cr. In September 2021.
GLong
by akashbothra