Solana, why can't you just cooperate and play nice?
When applying EWT to charts one spends a lot of time looking at structure, technicals and chart labels. It's not uncommon for analysts to re-label or reorganize their charts due to unanticipated price movements or just a change in perspective. No, I'm not going to go into how I've come to adopt a new EW count on Solana. However, in looking at the chart differently I have noticed something interesting. Even if the February 24th bottom was NOT the bottom, we should still get another breach of the April 2nd high of $143.53.
I want to reiterate that as of writing this, nothing has occurred within the chart to cause me to adopt the viewpoint that we have NOT bottomed. But while we wait for new clues on Solana's next move I figure it's a perfect time to engage in a thought experiment. That being, what if Solana did not bottom on February 24th....what happens to the price? Are holders of Solana going to be left holding the bag?
In my opinion, not at all.
Anyone who follows my Solana postings will know I anticipate we have bottomed. In previous postings I pointed out what has to happen to get me to turn neutral to bearish on Solana. In my last post I stated if we trade below $114, then we'll probably tag the 1.0 down at $109. We did trade below $114 and we eventually tagged the $109 area (actually went as low as $108). That dip below the 1.0 fib extension is concerning but not a deal breaker within this rally off the February 24th low.
Looking at the micro 3 min chart, nothing of note is currently taking place. We may be forming a leading diagonal but its possible we get one more low before deciding to head higher. Nonetheless, price is not behaving like we've hit a support area that will translate into anything impulsive to the upside.
We're looking for a 5 wave bounce off this recent bottom into the $123 area, followed by a 3 wave retrace, then an explosive rally back over the $123 area to even begin to think we're headed back to $140 area and a new high. For our February 24th bottom to remain valid, Solana needs to cooperate and play nice this weekend and get going. Invalidation of this impulsive rally off the February 24th bottom is at $106.49. At that juncture, the only bullish case that can be made is a leading diagonal which is a low probability pattern.
So what happens if Solana did not bottom on February 24th?
That would mean our retrace from the $259.995 high on November 6, 2021 is far from over. This recent rally off the February 24th bottom an "A" wave of a larger B that will eventually reconcile itself in the area of $200, only to come down into the $50-$60 range later this year. It may take on a more complex structure and keep us on our toes...but we will have many clues along the way that will provide us confidence as to where we are within the larger EWT Count. So if you feel like you missed out "Not Selling at $143 last week"....you won't be left holding bag. As with all markets, patience is what is always required.
As of now, we're still in the 4th wave of our rally which is the most frustrating portion, but we await clues that our 5th wave into the $150-$160 area has begun.
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If you find my Solana analysis helpful please follow me. Also feel free to leave comments below and let's continue the Solana discussion. I'll answer all of them.
Best to all.
Chris
I want to reiterate that as of writing this, nothing has occurred within the chart to cause me to adopt the viewpoint that we have NOT bottomed. But while we wait for new clues on Solana's next move I figure it's a perfect time to engage in a thought experiment. That being, what if Solana did not bottom on February 24th....what happens to the price? Are holders of Solana going to be left holding the bag?
In my opinion, not at all.
Anyone who follows my Solana postings will know I anticipate we have bottomed. In previous postings I pointed out what has to happen to get me to turn neutral to bearish on Solana. In my last post I stated if we trade below $114, then we'll probably tag the 1.0 down at $109. We did trade below $114 and we eventually tagged the $109 area (actually went as low as $108). That dip below the 1.0 fib extension is concerning but not a deal breaker within this rally off the February 24th low.
Looking at the micro 3 min chart, nothing of note is currently taking place. We may be forming a leading diagonal but its possible we get one more low before deciding to head higher. Nonetheless, price is not behaving like we've hit a support area that will translate into anything impulsive to the upside.
We're looking for a 5 wave bounce off this recent bottom into the $123 area, followed by a 3 wave retrace, then an explosive rally back over the $123 area to even begin to think we're headed back to $140 area and a new high. For our February 24th bottom to remain valid, Solana needs to cooperate and play nice this weekend and get going. Invalidation of this impulsive rally off the February 24th bottom is at $106.49. At that juncture, the only bullish case that can be made is a leading diagonal which is a low probability pattern.
So what happens if Solana did not bottom on February 24th?
That would mean our retrace from the $259.995 high on November 6, 2021 is far from over. This recent rally off the February 24th bottom an "A" wave of a larger B that will eventually reconcile itself in the area of $200, only to come down into the $50-$60 range later this year. It may take on a more complex structure and keep us on our toes...but we will have many clues along the way that will provide us confidence as to where we are within the larger EWT Count. So if you feel like you missed out "Not Selling at $143 last week"....you won't be left holding bag. As with all markets, patience is what is always required.
As of now, we're still in the 4th wave of our rally which is the most frustrating portion, but we await clues that our 5th wave into the $150-$160 area has begun.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you find my Solana analysis helpful please follow me. Also feel free to leave comments below and let's continue the Solana discussion. I'll answer all of them.
Best to all.
Chris
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