SPY This is exactly like a chess game

Jul 29, 2022

For now, the last week starting on 25th July was all that we needed to breath from now of the bear trend. We closed ABOVE the key level at 395 not only at daily but also at weekly chart. What do we have here? A incredible bull run that may last until Big Money doesn't want to keep it. I didn't expect another sell off last week because as I said in last post, MM's didn't sell yet. That's simple, you have to understand that rational thought at the stock exchange doesn't necessarily reflect reality. Even if the world says otherwise, a rigged market won't fall if it doesn't want to. Before going into whats going to happen first we need to understand that being bullish makes more money that being bearish, why? The market can be hedged or shorted at a bearish position, but the market has a limit, any stock can fall, but there's a huge amount of money below any asset that prevents it from going to zero, so at any point, it will stop falling and keep rising. The amount of time going up historically it's longer than going down in most assets. So the only way that has no limits it's going up. In addition, this benefits a lot more people. Although there will always be depressive moments, the global trend will always go up.

Additionally, we saw Bitcoin (I only mention it for its importance to actual economics) pause and decrease its bull run to correspond with the overall market.

Now what's going next?
In the last two weeks, big money has been investing a lot of money in stocks, so I'll stay somewhat bullish until I see any June-like signals.
We closed at a really bullish key level that last week. Also, do you know what indicator plays a major role in any market trend? Apple. The market sees it as a really safe asset used by big money that doesn't really want to risk their money. Last month, the entire stock market was carried twice by only one company, Apple, which was exhausting but very highly rigged clearly. It indicates the overall market direction. if you look at it, it closed above 157 & 160 today, highest signal that this bull run up it's going to last a bit more since it broke it's entire 2022 downtrend. Also it could close this week above 200 MMADAILY.
What do you need more? Even though VIX didn't correlate as it should last month, it somehow did since it was already indicating where this was going to end.

There is a clear anger in SPY, and it refuses to close any lower GAPs it left behind yet. We managed to end above 410, do you know what that means? Two things, one we are probably going to see 430 this month, and two bear market didn't end. Why? SPY has already left too many gaps, and Q3 is likely to be bad, so we should be prepared for a leg off again "soon.".
What do I expect? Well, there are not more FOMC's this month, the only big data it's CPI at mid July. We should expect a retracement soon, perhaps at CPI, but MM's will lead the move.
-Two short term escenarios:
- As we end next week above the 420's, we see finally some serious retail intervention so the market goes FOMO just as it did last week, and it still pumps really fast. We could see some false breakdown but it should keep going green. We could see 430 even before CPI, just to engage into highest levels. The SPY could end this month at 440's if MM's keep up this trend (only if CPI falls meaning inflation has "peaked" so far).
- Since it's our 200 MMA Daily, we consolidate around 417 and wait for CPI to decide whether to cross or reject. If this is the case,you should expect NEXT WEEK starting at 1th August ending around 1% green, so as soon as we reach 417 ish we could see some -1,5% red days. MM's could sell off within the next two weeks, which could lead to some serious declines ahead of CPI or at any convenient time, but I doubt this will happen in August, anyways I will keep posting.

If this does not drop to new lows at September, we could be engaged to a really significant rally through the rest of the year.