VPA_TRADER

SRTRANSFIN ACCUMULATION 1D PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILE

Long
NSE:SRTRANSFIN   SHRIRAM TRANSPORT
Disclaimer-:
1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED.
2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any.

NSE:SRTRANSFIN used to consolidate for a very very long time between 700 and 1300.
After the rally since last year we can see currently its in a sideways region. This could be accumulation or distribution. We are not sure yet. But chances are high it is a small pause and a small accumulation region. Nonetheless confirmation is absolutely essential.

1500 and 1265 are important levels within which the sideways region is currently in. Breakout with high buying(green) volume will confirm accumulation and the opposite could signal possible distribution.

Volume Profile-: ACCUMULATION REGION:
Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price.
2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes
3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case

IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS
1. From 17Mar-20 to 30Oct-20 A Nice accumulation took place in the rectangular region with ample of volume .
2. Then rally happened with in between small pause where accumulation happened since in those small pause green volume was more than red volume (more buying than selling).

3. Now its in sideways but with very low volume compared to historical accumulation. So there is a high chance that its a brief pause and soon it will breakout and resume the trend.

TARGET WITH LOGIC
Mark the brief pause that happened between 22nd Nov and 23rd Dec (2020). The volume at that level is comparable to the volume at current level.
Two things can happen
1. It breaks out with this amount of volume . In this case, it makes sense to assume a rally to be little more than the rally since 23rd Dec 2020 level since the accumulation volumes are almost same. So i used a Fib Extension from 23rd Dec 2020 and marked 168% as target level.

2. It continues in this region for a long time. Then afterwards if it breaks out we have to consider rally to be much longer because the accumulation now is much stronger. I will update target level with image if that happens

Entry
Wait for a breakout above 1537 level with high volume , 1D, closing at 320PM and then take position.
I will update here before or during possible breakout.
You may use breakout above 1537 + ATR( Average True Range ) for additional confirmation.

-> The best way to enter would be to partially after breakout and the add after (throwback + continuation). i will update when addition can be done.

STOPLOSS
Best to place stop-loss at or below 1276 for conservative approach. Then trail as per your strategy or best use MA in 1H or 1D timeframe with ATR Buffer.

EXIT
Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals.

1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low)
2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal.
3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit

Note-: This analysis is for NSE:SRTRANSFIN to be put in watchlist not immediately taken position in.

**I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC.
TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT.
**YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES
**ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.

NSE:SRTRANSFIN








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