Tata Steel: Bounce Back After Correction from ₹120 Ceiling

🔍Technical Analysis

In June 2024, Tata Steel hit an all-time high of ₹185 but later corrected, bottoming near ₹120 in January 2025.

The stock has since formed a higher-high, higher-low structure and currently trades around ₹162.

If the pattern sustains, the next upside targets are:

🎯Target 1: ₹170

🎯Target 2: ₹180

🎯Target 3: ₹190 (new all-time high)

Suggested stop-loss is near the recent swing low at ₹150. A drop below ₹120–₹125 (major demand zone) would invalidate the bullish thesis.

💰Q4 FY24 Financial Highlights (vs Q3 FY24 & Q4 FY23)

• Total Income: ₹56,218 Cr (↑+5% QoQ vs ₹53,648 Cr; ↓–4% YoY vs ₹58,687 Cr)
  
• Total Expenses: ₹49,659 Cr (↑ 4.7% QoQ from ₹47,745 Cr; ↓ 4.7% YoY from ₹52,087 Cr)
  
• Total Operating Profit: ₹6,559 Cr (↑+11% QoQ vs ₹5,903 Cr; ↓–1% vs ₹6,601 Cr)
  
• Profit Before Tax: ₹2,200 Cr (↑+32% QoQ vs ₹1,672 Cr; ↑+22% YoY vs ₹1,809 Cr)
  
• Profit After Tax: ₹1,201 Cr (↑+298% QoQ vs ₹295 Cr; ↑+116% YoY vs ₹555 Cr)
  
• Diluted EPS: ₹1.04 (↑+300% QoQ vs ₹0.26; ↑+112% YoY vs ₹0.49)
  
  📌The sharp sequential and year-on-year rise in PAT reflects strong recovery driven by volume growth and cost-cutting.
  
  📈Fundamental Highlights
  
  Consolidated Q4 PAT surged 113% to ₹1,301 Cr, outperforming estimates (ET cites +113% YoY rise)
  
  Revenue grew 5% sequentially to ₹56,218 Cr; raw material costs fell ~18%, reducing total expenses by ~4% YoY
  
  EBITDA margin improved sequentially from ~11% to 12% with consolidated EBITDA at ₹6,762 Cr
  
  Shareholder Return: A dividend of ₹3.60 per share was announced
  
  Operational Efficiency: Higher sales in India (~21 Mt) due to capacity ramp-up, improved margins in Netherlands, and reduced UK losses
  
  Debt Management: Net debt trimmed to ₹82,579 Cr, and ₹6,600 Cr in capex delivered cost benefits
  
  🧭Outlook
  Tata Steel’s Q4 results reflect earning resilience, operational efficiency, and strong cost control. Technically, it's trading within a constructive higher-high pattern. Confirmed support above ₹150 and maintaining above the swing zone boosts the probability of reaching the upside targets. A break below ₹120–₹125, however, could negate this bullish setup.
  
  Disclaimer:lnkd.in/gJJDnvn2