20% downside risk still persists MT ; Long term upside 100%
Updated
- In the short term, 
UBER price can go down to test $47 at 200 SMA on weekly timeframe.
- This will present a solid opportunity to buyer Uber at an attractive valuation.
Risks & Opportunities:
- Many investors are selling it because of AV i.e waymo & robotaxi by tesla.
- These AVs are not a risk for at least 3-5 years. On top of that, Uber is a global platform which allows one to use the same app in various countries.
- AVs are capital intensive and will eat up lot of capital from Google & Tesla. It is not scalable beyond US where there's huge population like Asia or where the roads aren't good, traffic signs are confusing. Therefore, there will always be a demand for rideshare with an actual driver.
- Rideshare with driver will always be cheaper to operate in countries where population is high & labour is cheap like south America, asia, south-east asia. It is capital light because car is of the cab driver whereas for AV, the car needs to be modified, infrastructure needs to be maintained, software updates, car maintainence etc can't compete with rideshare with human driver.
- Uber is a "verb" for ride hailing and can be used as a benchmark for right pricing as local taxi drivers might dupe tourists.
- CEO Dara is amazing and has turned Uber from a loss making company to a profit generating machine. His execution is top class.
- I remember when Uber & Lyft used to trade hand in hand till 2022. But Dara's execution proved Uber to be a rideshare winner.
- Uber should perform well even if we hit a recession because in a recession although there would be demand compression but the supply of drivers will increase ( gig economy ) so price paid to driver will decrease ( simple supply & demand ) which will lead to stabilization of margins.
- People ain't stopping to buy food from uber eats as they are too lazy to cook and won't stop taking rides if they have to go from A to B. Plus, in a recession, people are likely to invest less in buying new car which can be seen from cooling down of auto industry despite several rate cuts.
Disclaimer:
- I'm nibbling Uber as it goes down and want to build this as my biggest position for a safe & asymmetrical returns of 60-100%+
UBER price can go down to test $47 at 200 SMA on weekly timeframe. - This will present a solid opportunity to buyer Uber at an attractive valuation.
Risks & Opportunities:
- Many investors are selling it because of AV i.e waymo & robotaxi by tesla.
- These AVs are not a risk for at least 3-5 years. On top of that, Uber is a global platform which allows one to use the same app in various countries.
- AVs are capital intensive and will eat up lot of capital from Google & Tesla. It is not scalable beyond US where there's huge population like Asia or where the roads aren't good, traffic signs are confusing. Therefore, there will always be a demand for rideshare with an actual driver.
- Rideshare with driver will always be cheaper to operate in countries where population is high & labour is cheap like south America, asia, south-east asia. It is capital light because car is of the cab driver whereas for AV, the car needs to be modified, infrastructure needs to be maintained, software updates, car maintainence etc can't compete with rideshare with human driver.
- Uber is a "verb" for ride hailing and can be used as a benchmark for right pricing as local taxi drivers might dupe tourists.
- CEO Dara is amazing and has turned Uber from a loss making company to a profit generating machine. His execution is top class.
- I remember when Uber & Lyft used to trade hand in hand till 2022. But Dara's execution proved Uber to be a rideshare winner.
- Uber should perform well even if we hit a recession because in a recession although there would be demand compression but the supply of drivers will increase ( gig economy ) so price paid to driver will decrease ( simple supply & demand ) which will lead to stabilization of margins.
- People ain't stopping to buy food from uber eats as they are too lazy to cook and won't stop taking rides if they have to go from A to B. Plus, in a recession, people are likely to invest less in buying new car which can be seen from cooling down of auto industry despite several rate cuts.
Disclaimer:
- I'm nibbling Uber as it goes down and want to build this as my biggest position for a safe & asymmetrical returns of 60-100%+
Trade active
- Seems like bulls are buying the dip around 59-61 range. If big buy orders start flowing in then it will create a FOMO buying as people know it's undervalued.
Uber eats for christmas anyone?
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