USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

FX_IDC:USDINR   U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
The chart shows an ATH of 83.69 whereas the on-shore markets high is believed to be 83.49 in this move. Thank God that the pair did not move beyond 83.70 else it would have been a disaster. Also that the currency pair is drifting back in to the rectangle. The market will try to position itself for covering the Imports on any dip. Markets were expecting huge flows to happen towards the annual closing and it went the other way. We atre back in the same old range of 83.00-83.30.

A few observations
a. Expect the range of 83.20 - 83.45 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range.
b. There is divergence seen in the charts
c. The currency pair does not seem to follow DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals

A few more observations:
Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months.
• The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70
o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects

• Next couple of weeks is crucial. The final hope remains at 83.70. If this level breaches on a closing basis, then the Alligator pattern will kick-in and it would be a confirmed move towards 85.70 in the near future.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.


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