USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

FX_IDC:USDINR   U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
The pair finally closed below 82.80 after nearly 6 months. The pair was traded between 82.92 and 82.66. The good part is that the upside has gradually brought down from 83.30 to below 83. The Currency market seems to have lost the shine as most of the currencies are moving in a narrow range waiting for a trigger event. We can expect a consolidation between 82.40 and 82.90.

A few observations
a. The currency pair does not seem to follow the DXY, Stocks or the Precious metals
b. There is divergence seen in the charts
c. Expect the range of 82.40 - 82.92 would hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range.

A few more observations:
Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months.
• The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70
• As noted in our 3rd July Blog:
o A deeper correction is long overdue. The market is expecting 82.70-83.35 will be protected.
o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects

• The currency pair is at a crucial level on a trend line from Nov 22, a break now or not in near future will be known this month
• The next couple of weeks are crucial. We will get to know if we are heading towards 82.30 or 83.50

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.


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