USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

FX_IDC:USDINR   U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
The currency pair is consolidating between 83.35 & 83.62 for the third consecutive week. It is observed that the currency pair is drifting back in to the top of the rectangle. The indications are that the pair may break the barrier at 83.65 and move higher towards 83.80. Any daily close beyond 83.80 is a clear indication of the Alligator formation opening its mouth in which case we may see 84.20 sooner. The market will try to position itself for covering the Imports on any dip. We are back in the same old range of 83.30-83.62.

A few observations
a. Expect the range of 83.30 would hold for the week and there could be attempt to break higher both on account of global cues and technical outlook.
b. There is divergence seen in the charts
c. The currency pair seems to have its own agenda and reflect the sentiments similar to CNY currency.

A few more observations:
Continue to keep the following input for quick reference though it is repeated for the past 8 months.
• The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70
o Ultra-low Vols may be a huge risk and there could be sharp move happening when no one expects

• Next couple of weeks is crucial. The final hope remains at 83.80. If this level breaches on a closing basis, then the Alligator pattern will kick-in and it would be a confirmed move towards 85.70 in the near future.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.


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