FlowState

USD/JPY: Upside Target Reached, Breakout Pressure?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Another retest of an ascending trendline has transpired after price failed to break through a cluster of offers following the latest 100% proj target achieved before the slight roll over. Note, the 2nd leg of this ongoing bullish cycle has gone for a total of 152p, an increase of over 50% from the previous leg up (99p). What this means is that even if setbacks occur short-term, the market structure is still suggestive of a broad bullish trend as long as the ascending trendline off sub 110.00 is respected. Be aware, the current ‘true risk on’ environment (DXY down, SP500 & US30Y up) tends to lead to safe haven flows causing extra supply pressure on the JPY. With a P-shaped volume profile structure, and the downside still capped by the trendline, the path of least resistance is still higher. The breakout of the ascending trendline would be a warning sign that 111.15-20 may be revisited next.


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