WTI crude oil recovered nearly 5%, supported but still limited

Aug 1

USOIL rebounded sharply nearly 5% on Wednesday, far from the nearly 2-month low reached on Tuesday after the assassination of the leader of Hamas in Iran, investors fear the conflict in the Middle East could widen and the volume US crude oil inventories boosted. The Federal Reserve sent the market a signal in September to cut interest rates, and the US Dollar index dropped sharply, also creating momentum for oil prices.

Government data showed US crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week, while the market expected a decline of 1.1 million barrels. Crude oil inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since January 2021.
The news that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran has increased tensions in the Middle East overnight. The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% on Wednesday, which also supported oil prices. The Fed kept interest rates steady but left open the possibility of reducing borrowing costs at its next meeting in September.
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ alliance consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia will meet today (Thursday). The alliance is expected to maintain current production policies and lift some output cuts starting in October.
During this trading day, investors also need to pay attention to deeper market developments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, pay attention to new news on the geopolitical situation, pay attention to the US ISM manufacturing PMI for July and initial unemployment numbers. US claims for the week ending July 27.

On the daily chart of WTI crude oil, despite a very strong recovery since the lower edge of the confluence price channel with the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level, WTI crude oil is currently limited in its recovery by the Fibonacci 0.50%.

Meanwhile, the bearish structure is still unaffected with the price channel as the main trend and pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21).

As long as WTI crude oil maintains price activity within the channel and below Ema21, the technical outlook remains bearish with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 77.10 – 75.07USD
Resistance: 78.52 – 79.94USD

Aug 1

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WTI oil also received a boost from a decline in oil and gasoline inventories in the US, a positive signal for demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil reserves in the US decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week, while gasoline reserves decreased by 3.7 million barrels.

Aug 19

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Aug 19

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OIL FALLS MARGINALLY AND BRENT CONTINUES TO TRADE BELOW $80.. WHAT IS AFFECTING OIL MOVEMENTS?

Oil prices fell during Monday's trading, for the second day in a row, with Brent crude continuing to trade below $80 per barrel, after touching its lowest levels since August 9 for the second session amid investor concerns about oil demand levels in China, the world's largest importer of crude, after very negative data last week.

Aug 26

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Oil prices increased +0.035% after tensions between Israel and Lebanon continued to escalate over the weekend.

In terms of technical analysis, WTI oil prices rebounded before reaching the important support level around 72 USD/barrel. With concerns about US demand, oil prices may have more room to recover.

Sep 9

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Crude oil prices rebounded on news that a hurricane could hit the US Gulf Coast by mid-week, with the US National Hurricane Center saying yesterday that the weather system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to turn into a hurricane before reaching the northwestern Gulf Coast.

Sep 16

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Oil prices (USOIL) recovered slightly to about 68.34 USD/barrel (+1.08%).