VXN - NQ Volatility Weekly - Significant Falling Wedge
When in doubt, Zoom Out has been suggested for as long as we have been trading.
Alexandra reminds me of this tried and true Axiom when Counter-Trends Develop.
Confirmation in the Weekly Time-Frame supports the BULLs, of this there can be
very little doubt, it is a large falling wedge of extreme range.
It looks terrible for the SELL.
And yet we saw 1343 Ticks come off the NQ within the downtrend, barely a blip
to the Upper Trend Line only to fail again.
A ~6% move down in NQ generated a 50% move in VXN.
Institutions/Funds profited from their Put buying Spree as Implied Volatility
had been crushed again. Step and repeat... same as it has been for a long time.
There are always anomalies in Weighted Indexes - TSLA by example was falling down
the mountain and kissing dirt... BUT... implied VX in TSLA was rising quickly as PUT
Buyers began to double down, triple down, and begin a degenerative campaign against
the Heavy Weights who hold Tesla. Tesla is a Protected entity and has a decidedly large
weighting within its Index.
For 12 straight days, Put Buyers were smoked, used as lighter fluid for a relenting grind
higher and higher.
Anomalies occur, the Heavy Weights always catch the Bid to prop, and when there's fuel
a match is merely a few feet away. Once again the Tesla Dumpster Fire was put out
with Gasoline.
With the VXN feeling the Crush, having broken 23.52, 22.12, 21.32, 20, and 19.73, then
18.60. It's a beat down that only the Chevchenko's can deliver.
So where is the Lower Boundary, we'll know as we head into EPS and VX Settle.
More importantly, where is the UPPER BIoundary as it serves to provide indications as
to whether 4/5's completion ends there or an Overthrow of this Weekly Trendline can
occur, signaling much larger issues ahead as 5/5 completes.
We shall see, it will take a monumental effort to keep this in check as Yields are quite
clearly a threat to the TECH Complex. There are a large number of Additional Threats
beyond Yields.
We are entering a cautionary period for TECH, as we maintain it will fail.
By all appearances, one would expect the exact opposite, and there is the challenge.
Trade safe~!
- HK
Alexandra reminds me of this tried and true Axiom when Counter-Trends Develop.
Confirmation in the Weekly Time-Frame supports the BULLs, of this there can be
very little doubt, it is a large falling wedge of extreme range.
It looks terrible for the SELL.
And yet we saw 1343 Ticks come off the NQ within the downtrend, barely a blip
to the Upper Trend Line only to fail again.
A ~6% move down in NQ generated a 50% move in VXN.
Institutions/Funds profited from their Put buying Spree as Implied Volatility
had been crushed again. Step and repeat... same as it has been for a long time.
There are always anomalies in Weighted Indexes - TSLA by example was falling down
the mountain and kissing dirt... BUT... implied VX in TSLA was rising quickly as PUT
Buyers began to double down, triple down, and begin a degenerative campaign against
the Heavy Weights who hold Tesla. Tesla is a Protected entity and has a decidedly large
weighting within its Index.
For 12 straight days, Put Buyers were smoked, used as lighter fluid for a relenting grind
higher and higher.
Anomalies occur, the Heavy Weights always catch the Bid to prop, and when there's fuel
a match is merely a few feet away. Once again the Tesla Dumpster Fire was put out
with Gasoline.
With the VXN feeling the Crush, having broken 23.52, 22.12, 21.32, 20, and 19.73, then
18.60. It's a beat down that only the Chevchenko's can deliver.
So where is the Lower Boundary, we'll know as we head into EPS and VX Settle.
More importantly, where is the UPPER BIoundary as it serves to provide indications as
to whether 4/5's completion ends there or an Overthrow of this Weekly Trendline can
occur, signaling much larger issues ahead as 5/5 completes.
We shall see, it will take a monumental effort to keep this in check as Yields are quite
clearly a threat to the TECH Complex. There are a large number of Additional Threats
beyond Yields.
We are entering a cautionary period for TECH, as we maintain it will fail.
By all appearances, one would expect the exact opposite, and there is the challenge.
Trade safe~!
- HK
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.