PHAM REGRESSION STRATEGY DEFINITIONS

Updated

This is not an idea. This reference for the future re-introduction of Pham Regression Strategy (PRS). PRS is versatile, can be used by exclusively or inclusively, by itself or adapted to your trading style.

PRS currently runs on 3-4 indicator systems. I call it "indicator system" because each of them is a layering of a specific type of indicator. For example a singular simple moving average like 50-day MA is one indicator. A moving average ribbon is a set of moving averages that closely follow each other: like 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-, 50-period moving average. But it is still "one" indicator in the sense that it is limited to a specific time frame. Whereas a moving average ribbon system (and I will introduce a script later to feature this idea), will allow you to see MUCH MUCH MORE THAN YOU THOUGHT WAS POSSIBLE. This is because it illustrates several "sets" of moving averages that can be defined against each other. This will define trend on every time frame made possible by supporting software and computing power. This will also explicitly define what is meant by up or down and bull or bear. While this may seem to be too much information right now, I PROMISE IT IS MUCH MORE SIMPLE THAN IT LOOKS ONCE WE GET THE DEFINITIONS DOWN AND GET ON THE SAME PAGE FIRST. In the future, I will attempt to boil it down to 2 systems, 1 price and 1 volume. But this part of the work must become before that.

Honestly, If you are a successful experienced trader, I can get you immersed in 10 minutes. In order to make this accessible to regular people, this part of the work is unavoidable at one point or another. So it's best that I get started on this now. This system, once popularized, I believe will become the future foundation of technical analysis. Furthermore, it will eliminate the need for 80% of indicators that exist, 90% when it comes to commodities, 98% when it comes to gold specifically.

That's all for now. I will write and write and write here for a while before the re-introduction of PRS. In the mean time, I will post shorter ideas to compliment this process but will be less involved in trade support (i.e. that's the idea and you are on your own, SIZE YOUR POSITIONS AND MANAGE YOUR RISK!!).

Thank you for reading. Will update later.

- Minh Quang Pham, Saturday June 13th, 2020.

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PART ONE: MOVING AVERAGE SYSTEM

First, a moving average is an average of a specific period. So if you are on 1-hour bars, and the standard MA(9), that means any point on the line is an average of the previous 9 bars or 9 hours.

So what leads MA (9), easy MA(8). That also means that price is MA(1) and PRICE LEADS EVERYTHING. This is true for any type of price based periodic derivatives. For example: simple moving average or SMA, exponential moving average or EMA, and linear regression curve or LRC.

to be continued...

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.. in the mean time, this is MAR by Jacob Amos. This is on SMA setting. His defauts are 5-10-15- and so on to 100. Great indicator by the way for disciplined, experienced traders, but the question is this: how are you supposed to forecast what it's about to do?

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I still consider MAR an indicator and not an indicator system. I'm going to port my Infinite Moving Average from to Tradingview and post the script and directions for it next. That in order to illustrate what I mean by "moving average system".

to be continued...

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... in the meantime here is a snapshot from investing.com:

invst.ly/r4b92

In this case, the bolded MA'S are what I called majors (have explained in previous ideas but will explain again). THEY ARE ALSO THE MEDIANS FOR THE BOLLINGERS YOU SEE. I am trying to get both sets of indicators on 1 indicator script so you don't have to deal with 2.

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... to be continued...

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Before we continue, this is evidence that YOU CAN PREDICT THE NEXT MOVE UP as challenged in the MAR indicator chart. This is the same move:

REBOOT, THE ENDING: WE ARE STILL GOING UP.

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For those that dont know, tradingview has a replay button on the right side of ideas chart that will load up to current bars so you can see it replay. You can click on the previous chart posted and see the forecast play out. To make sure you are not wasting your time, you can check out my previous ideas first and determine if its worth your time. I can list the greatest hits, but you need to see the development process for yourself.

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This is the new script for PIMA:

Pham Infinite Moving Average (PIMA) Version 3.1

I ran out of time to stack PACB Bollinger's on top bc of script modifications.

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Directions for PIMA: Pham Infinite Moving Average.

The idea here is 6 layers MA ribbons, separated by a factor of 3. The bolded lines are called majors because they identify a specific period. The default periods are for 72 days on 45-min bars divided by 3.

So they layers are:
Orange 72 days
Purple 24 days
Gray 8 days
Red 61.333 hours (bc each day is only 23 hours long on 45 min bars)
Blue about 21 hours
Black abour 7 hours

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TECHNIQUES -- FIRST, EASY RALLIES

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I CAN GO ON AND ON AND ON ... BUT ADD IT TO YOUR CHART AND BACK TEST FOR YOUR CONVICTION.

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So the notes I've added in the last hour is the same notes that go into the indicator. There's so much more I want to say, explain, and give examples for. But really no time to say it all. I just wanted to give you guys a a new tool as an introduction to what PRS is about.

The big question you might have is why have you not seen it from me before? For reactive trading it will help you A GREAT DEAL. But mapping out what PRICE WILL REALLY DO, IT IS TERRIBLE COMPARED TO PIRL, or Infinite Regression Layering. I have said one point before that they are more powerful when they are side by side, that is probably the best answer.

NOTE THERE IS A TYPO SOME WHERE THAT SAID ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR 15 MIN AND 5 MIN BARS, THAT'S WRONG. IT SHOULD SAY NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

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So when I have time next we will hash out the meaning of CHANGE OF TREND ON PIMA. Add applicable bollingers (ala PACB). Maybe provide a second script that merges the two before the discussion of PIRL.

To be continued...

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SHORT ESSAY ON TREND AND MOMENTUM IN INFINITE MOVING AVERAGE

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PLEASE EXCUSE THE TYPOS, I HAVE TO GET A LOT OUT IN LIMITED TIME.

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So when I layer Bollingers on top for the majors (the bolded) moving averages, you will get something like this:

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Notes for for chart above: This is still 2 separate scripts, I will combine and deliver PIMA+PACB together. Just some notes first. In order to make things run smoother, I've turned off some of the MA's. Once you understand it, you won't "need" all of them, just most of them to understand the twists and turns. I have 4 bollingers on, but there are options for 5. They will match they majors or bolded moving averages in their period. So that means that is also their medians. I only have fill on for 2 of them as to make easier to visually process. You can change them in the options if you want.

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*** THE POINT OF KEEPING THE THE FACTOR 3 IS TO GET A UNIFORM DEFINITION OF TREND. SO WHEN YOU GO FROM 405 TO 135 TO 45 TO 15 TO 5, ONLY THE COLORS CHANGE. THE SHAPE WILL NOT. ***

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VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE: TRADINGVIEW TOOK DOWN MY INDICATORS FOR CONTACT IMFORMATION BC IM NOT A PREMIUM MEMBER. I'LL FIX THAT AND GET IT BACK UP.

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GOOD NEWS: I PUBLISHED VERSION PIMA VERSION 4.1!! Here is the link to it:

Pham Infinite Moving Average (PIMA) Version 4.1 for commodities

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BAD NEWS. PIMA NEEDS SOME BUGS IRONED OUT... SIGH.

Will try again.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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