51 trillion U.S. debt will land + if the non-farm payroll falls
Updated
This week, gold and silver continued to fluctuate and fall. Before the key turning point on the 18th, I thought it would continue to fluctuate and rebound, but there was another break on the 25th. Judging from the current structure, the overall situation is still dominated by complex shocks. From the perspective of the current structure, the overall situation still depends on the support of 1934. From the perspective of this week, the reasons for the continuous shock this week are as follows:
1. The two parties in the United States are close to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, supporting the dollar to put pressure on safe-haven gold.
2. The U.S. economic data released this week is generally positive, driving up market bets on the Fed’s interest rate hike in June. According to CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 50.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.00%-5.25% is 49.4%; the probability of maintaining interest rates at the current level by July is 25.5% , the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 50.0%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 24.5%.
3. The central bank's gold purchases and physical gold purchases support the overall upward trend in gold prices.
The above factors are the key to the continuous decline of gold and silver. Although it finally gained support here in 1934, the overall situation is still weak. The key point in the later stage is the pressure of 1986 and 2050. Therefore, it is very difficult to judge this week, and we can only observe further. The layout of several times has not been successful and there is a little backlash. We will look at the structure next week and then observe further.
Focus on the data next week:
At 15:55 on the 31st, Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) was 5.6 high in May
20:50 United States --- Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman and 2025 FOMC voter, Boston Fed Chairman Collins delivered opening remarks at the "Fed Listening" event.
At 17:00 on the 1st, the unemployment rate in the euro zone in April (%) was 6.5 6.5 high
02:00 United States --- The Fed releases its Beige Book on economic conditions.
At 20:30 on the 2nd, the seasonally adjusted change in non-agricultural employment in the United States in May (10,000) was 25.3 18 high
20:30 U.S. May unemployment rate (%) 3.4 3.5 high
On the news side, the focus will begin to increase sharply next week, and the key data to watch include Chicago PMI in the United States in May, changes in API and EIA crude oil inventories in the United States, CPI in the Eurozone in May, changes in ADP employment in the United States in May, and changes in the U.S. ADP employment in May. Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment.
1. U.S. PMI: The U.S. Chicago PMI recorded 48.6 in April, a record high since August 2022. It is a barometer that reflects the comprehensive development of manufacturing production, orders, prices, employees, and delivery dates. On May 31, the United States will announce the May Chicago PMI, which is expected to be 47, slightly lower than the previous value of 48.6. If it is lower than expected, the overall probability of being bullish on gold and silver is higher.
2. Non-agricultural employment in the United States: Non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 253,000 in April, an increase of 185,000 more than expected, setting a record for the 12th consecutive month that exceeded expectations. The non-agricultural employment data for February and March were revised down. February's figure was revised down to 248,000 from 326,000, and March's figure was revised down to 165,000 from 236,000. Low 149,000. The U.S. unemployment rate in April was 3.4%, lower than the previous value of 3.5% and the expected 3.6%, once again hitting a 53-year low set in January this year.
On June 2, the United States will announce the non-agricultural and unemployment rate in May. The market expects that the non-agricultural increase in May will be 180,000, which is lower than the previous value of 253,000. The market expects the US unemployment rate to be 3.5% in May, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.4%. From the current point of view, next week's non-farm payrolls may be more profitable than gold and silver, but if it is not as expected, the overall price can be further pushed up, which must be paid attention to.
The major events that investors need to pay attention to this week include the minutes of the European Central Bank's May monetary policy meeting, the speeches of officials such as Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Mann, Boston Fed President Collins and Philadelphia Fed President Harker.
Technically, gold and silver continued to fluctuate and fall this week, but the rate of decline began to slow down. From the perspective of the current time period, it is expected that complex fluctuations will occur at low levels in the future, and such fluctuations are expected to be seen on the 31st. Zhou focused on the turning point on the 31st, and then on the 2nd. In June, I think that there will be a big explosive market for gold and silver, and when the turning point is the most important, I will not announce it here for the time being. This intraday strategy has been announced. From the point of view, the key point is to focus on the breakthrough between 1986 and 1934.
Judging from the current structure, it is now the adjustment of the 4th wave, and I think this is very strong with the previous adjustment of the 2nd wave, and the 2nd wave is adjusted to 160 US dollars, and this time it is also adjusted to about 150 US dollars. So it's almost time.
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