Gold 1H – Price Reaction Ahead of U.S. CPI Data

XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader
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📈 Market Context
Gold prices remain steady around $3,975, as traders await the U.S. CPI data release later today — a key event that could shape expectations for the Fed’s next rate move.
If inflation cools, the dovish sentiment may boost gold’s safe-haven appeal; however, a hotter CPI print could trigger renewed dollar strength and short-term pressure on XAUUSD.
Market volatility is expected to spike near the release, so liquidity grabs and false breaks are likely before the true direction forms.
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🔎 Technical Analysis (H1 / SMC Style)
• The recent Change of Character (ChoCH) confirms short-term bearish control after breaking the bullish structure near 4017.
• FVG Sell Zone (4015–4017) aligns with premium imbalance and prior liquidity — ideal for short setups if price retests that zone.
• BOS to the downside was confirmed at 3960, showing sellers in control.
• The discount zone 3908–3910 is a strong demand area where buyers may step in after liquidity sweep below 3910.
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🟢 Buy Zone: 3908–3910
SL: 3900
TP targets: 3920 → 3940 → 3960+
🔴 Sell Zone: 4015–4017
SL: 4022
TP targets: 4000 → 3985 → 3970
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⚠️ Risk Management Tips
• Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS confirmation before entering either side.
• Use partial position sizing around CPI release — volatility may cause large wicks.
• Watch for liquidity hunts near 3980–3990 before CPI, then confirm structure direction.
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✅ Summary
Gold is consolidating below key resistance while awaiting U.S. inflation data.
Smart money may engineer a liquidity sweep toward 4015–4017 (FVG) before resuming the bearish leg into 3910.
However, if CPI comes in softer than expected, buyers may defend 3908–3910, sparking a recovery back toward 3980+.
🔔 Stay alert around CPI release hours — expect manipulative price action and confirm structure breaks before committing to directional trades.