Hello, many times we have been told (and I believe) that btc and gold are comparable.
But BTC has an advantage over gold. Gold indeed, already had the chance to have its price discovery in the last decades, and actual fluctuation are only due to the changing and contingent market conditions (whose bull run was called in early december 2019 by the way). BTC still has to be understood, we did not "discovered" its intrinsic price yet. But we can use gold as away to reverse engineer the BTC price. I did that in a simple but yet effective reasoning (at least, what I think to be an effective reasoning) many months ago in the related idea below. Here, I will provide another result based on the same idea but from a different angle.
As you can see from the chart which is a ratio of gold and btc, BTC has not yet had its price discovery, but we are slowly going towards it. Every halving brought an increase in price that led to a significant decrease of the ratio. To me the linearity and the harmony of this long term movement is astonishing and confirms the tight bond between the two assets.
Let me help you to translate this chart into real prices:
- before the first halving the ratio (the fair price) of 100ounces of gold vs 1 btc was 750 (100 ounces = 750btc).
- after the 2012 halving, the ratio was 7.5x. Every run has psychological factors involved, so the price of btc reached higher values (the ratio was lower), but eventually retested the 7.5 level before continuing the trend down, meaning that it was the fair value.
- After the 2016 halving, the same thing happened, and the fair value was 0.4 bitcoin perbrick of gold (with a peak/fomo level/overshooting level of 0.075).
Now, should the same ratio and linearity be maintained for the 2020 halving, next year we will have a 0.04 ratio, meaning that every brick of gold will be worth 0.04 btc. With gold at 2,000 it perfectly implies a 50,000$ worth Bitcoin.
Again, it is not the tightening ratio itself which is surprising, as this would happen with any other asset as btc has been growing exponentially during the last decade. It is rather the harmonic movement that actually shows there is a true relation between the two assets. This guys can be our Holy Graal.
Let me know what you think!
But BTC has an advantage over gold. Gold indeed, already had the chance to have its price discovery in the last decades, and actual fluctuation are only due to the changing and contingent market conditions (whose bull run was called in early december 2019 by the way). BTC still has to be understood, we did not "discovered" its intrinsic price yet. But we can use gold as away to reverse engineer the BTC price. I did that in a simple but yet effective reasoning (at least, what I think to be an effective reasoning) many months ago in the related idea below. Here, I will provide another result based on the same idea but from a different angle.
As you can see from the chart which is a ratio of gold and btc, BTC has not yet had its price discovery, but we are slowly going towards it. Every halving brought an increase in price that led to a significant decrease of the ratio. To me the linearity and the harmony of this long term movement is astonishing and confirms the tight bond between the two assets.
Let me help you to translate this chart into real prices:
- before the first halving the ratio (the fair price) of 100ounces of gold vs 1 btc was 750 (100 ounces = 750btc).
- after the 2012 halving, the ratio was 7.5x. Every run has psychological factors involved, so the price of btc reached higher values (the ratio was lower), but eventually retested the 7.5 level before continuing the trend down, meaning that it was the fair value.
- After the 2016 halving, the same thing happened, and the fair value was 0.4 bitcoin perbrick of gold (with a peak/fomo level/overshooting level of 0.075).
Now, should the same ratio and linearity be maintained for the 2020 halving, next year we will have a 0.04 ratio, meaning that every brick of gold will be worth 0.04 btc. With gold at 2,000 it perfectly implies a 50,000$ worth Bitcoin.
Again, it is not the tightening ratio itself which is surprising, as this would happen with any other asset as btc has been growing exponentially during the last decade. It is rather the harmonic movement that actually shows there is a true relation between the two assets. This guys can be our Holy Graal.
Let me know what you think!
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Or simply you don't want to risk it?
Trade forex, oil, crypto, indices, and keep 80% of the profits you make, while losses are covered!
Check it out now → ftmo.com/en/?affiliates=2427
