🔥GOLD TREND ANALYSIS FOR NEXT MONDAY

The gold market experienced a sharp correction ahead of Friday's close. The price retreated significantly from the high of $2,431, eventually settling at $2,343 levels by the end of the trading day. This change is influenced by many factors. On the one hand, the overheating trend of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that inflationary pressure still exists, which has put certain pressure on market sentiment. On the other hand, the speeches of hawkish officials from the Federal Reserve further strengthened the market's expectations for the trend of the US dollar, pushing the US dollar exchange rate to break through the 106 mark. In addition, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East still poses a threat to the market, and its potential impact cannot be ignored. Overall, the market is highly volatile, and investors should remain cautious and pay close attention to market dynamics.

In the short term, the price of gold began to rise continuously after trading sideways near 2380, broke through the high of 2400 during the US trading period, and continued to climb strongly to around 2431. However, unexpectedly, the price of gold fell sharply in the evening, falling by as much as $100. While we know the market may have peaked, it is difficult to determine where the top will be because we cannot accurately assess the market's risk aversion. However, the market peak usually meets three conditions: accelerated rise, accelerated decline and continued decline. This bull market started at 1810, jumped short and opened high, and failed to cover the gap between 1810-1830, and then continued to rise. It dates back to two years ago during the Russo-Ukrainian war.

At present, the overall performance of the gold market is that the daily K-line rises and falls, forming a strong downward trend of single Yin, and driving the weekly K-line to form a shooting star, which appears to be very strong. The stochastic indicator changes from a second golden cross to a dead cross. In the short term, you can consider following the daily K-line's dead cross for short positions. However, Friday's sharp decline caught people off guard and could lead to a lower opening or continuation of the decline next Monday.

On the 4-hour chart, the third stage of divergence is highlighted. The stochastic indicator has formed a dead cross and is biased toward the short side. The lower track support is near 2318. This is the only long position that can be considered next week. On the whole, the short-term gold operation advice next Monday is mainly to go short on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The top should focus on the 2360-2365 resistance range in the short term, and the bottom should focus on the 2318-2315 support range.

Comment:

Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds near 2360-2365, stop loss 6 points, target around 2340-2330, break the position and look at the 2320 line

Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back around 2318-2320, stop loss by 6 points, target around 2330-2340, and look at the 2350 line if the position is broken

Comment:

At the beginning of the Asian market on Monday, gold prices jumped as high as $2,372.45 per ounce at the opening as Iran launched missiles at Israel late Saturday night, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. However, since most of the missiles were intercepted and no deaths were reported; Israel informed the United States that it does not intend to significantly escalate the conflict; risk aversion failed to continue to rise, and the current gold price fell back to US$2,354.19 per ounce. If the situation in the Middle East does not deteriorate further, , then the gold price faces the risk of peaking in the short term.

Judging from the current situation, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may continue to attract investors' attention, but it is expected that it will not be able to provide further upward momentum for gold prices until the situation further escalates. On the contrary, judging from the experience of "boots landing", bulls who made profits in the early stage may take the opportunity to take profits, which may trigger a correction in gold prices or a high and volatile operation. As rising tensions in the Middle East prompted investors to seek shelter in safe-haven assets, gold prices rose to more than US$2,400 per ounce on Friday, hitting a record high of US$2,431 per ounce, rising for the fourth consecutive week, but heavy losses in late New York trading It fell more than US$100 to close at US$2,344.61 per ounce, highlighting the strong demand for profit-taking in the market.

This trading day needs to focus on the monthly rate of U.S. retail sales, which is known as "horror data". The market is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month; this week will usher in the speeches of many Federal Reserve officials such as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Investors need to pay close attention to if The Fed continues to send hawkish signals, which may prompt a correction in gold prices