Bitcoin is, ostensibly, in a bubble that is about to collapse. In theory, we're either in the blow-off top, approaching the 5th wave, or about to teeter out and start breaking down and collapsing. These are arguably the most common theories outside of bull mania, and frankly, they're pretty well substantiated concerns that people should care about.
That being said, what we learned on the venture from 4.9k --> 2.9k --> 5.9k is that Bitcoin will dump. Bitcoin will also bounce. Bitcoin is exceedingly bullish and fundamentally is still quite far away from achieving a more widespread-level of adoption. Based on future projections, it is also very undervalued for the amount of Bitcoin available.
There are similarities between now and when a very large number of people thought Bitcoin would collapse around 4.4k to 4.6k and there were a tremendous amount of short positions opened. This mistake was exploited with remarkable efficacy by large players as short squeezes triggered the most volume in Bitcoin history. More volume than on the way to 4.9k and more volume than on the way to 2.9k.
What's interesting to note on the OBV oscilator is last night's dump was similar volume to the dump to 2.9k. The dump to 2.9k was a $1,400 move, whereas last night's move was a $500 move.
Right now OBV and SQZ indicate reversal. Willy21 indicates reversal, and also worth noting, is the Willy Moving Average has continually trended upward from the dump to 2.9k.
Everything we've experienced so far is still with Bitcoin above the cloud. Last night's dump also bounced off the major support line.
What people believe can happen and what is actually happening are two different things.
Next major resistance is $5,800-$5,850. One has to be very careful at this level as it's either a new ATH or a double top between there and $5,950.
In one corner, you have the bears who believe the bubble will collapse and the recent run is merely an exit strategy.
In the other, bulls, who, while wounded, taste, desire, and long for 7-10k.
I believe that since right now on the 4H it looks like we're merely in one giant bull flag and Bitcoin is Bitcoin, that $5,800 and $5,900 will be re-tested. Since the $6,000 mark is a major psychological point where full fever sets in, I believe it will most likely double-top at $5,950 in a bump-and-run reversal sort of situation, so I very much recommend if you're long to take profits at 58xx or 59xx and re-evaluate the situation. 50% closure of position would be strong if you can accept you may have to buy back in at a loss over $6,000.
What yesterday's dip also points out in terms of volume and momentum is that although it was a large volume $500~ downswing, when Bitcoin truly corrects, we're most likely going to be dealing with numbers that drop in the thousands.
The upcoming situation is something that both bulls and bears will think they know what's happening amidst. But, what is actually happening may be different.
The road up the mountain is often steep and winding, after all.
That being said, what we learned on the venture from 4.9k --> 2.9k --> 5.9k is that Bitcoin will dump. Bitcoin will also bounce. Bitcoin is exceedingly bullish and fundamentally is still quite far away from achieving a more widespread-level of adoption. Based on future projections, it is also very undervalued for the amount of Bitcoin available.
There are similarities between now and when a very large number of people thought Bitcoin would collapse around 4.4k to 4.6k and there were a tremendous amount of short positions opened. This mistake was exploited with remarkable efficacy by large players as short squeezes triggered the most volume in Bitcoin history. More volume than on the way to 4.9k and more volume than on the way to 2.9k.
What's interesting to note on the OBV oscilator is last night's dump was similar volume to the dump to 2.9k. The dump to 2.9k was a $1,400 move, whereas last night's move was a $500 move.
Right now OBV and SQZ indicate reversal. Willy21 indicates reversal, and also worth noting, is the Willy Moving Average has continually trended upward from the dump to 2.9k.
Everything we've experienced so far is still with Bitcoin above the cloud. Last night's dump also bounced off the major support line.
What people believe can happen and what is actually happening are two different things.
Next major resistance is $5,800-$5,850. One has to be very careful at this level as it's either a new ATH or a double top between there and $5,950.
In one corner, you have the bears who believe the bubble will collapse and the recent run is merely an exit strategy.
In the other, bulls, who, while wounded, taste, desire, and long for 7-10k.
I believe that since right now on the 4H it looks like we're merely in one giant bull flag and Bitcoin is Bitcoin, that $5,800 and $5,900 will be re-tested. Since the $6,000 mark is a major psychological point where full fever sets in, I believe it will most likely double-top at $5,950 in a bump-and-run reversal sort of situation, so I very much recommend if you're long to take profits at 58xx or 59xx and re-evaluate the situation. 50% closure of position would be strong if you can accept you may have to buy back in at a loss over $6,000.
What yesterday's dip also points out in terms of volume and momentum is that although it was a large volume $500~ downswing, when Bitcoin truly corrects, we're most likely going to be dealing with numbers that drop in the thousands.
The upcoming situation is something that both bulls and bears will think they know what's happening amidst. But, what is actually happening may be different.
The road up the mountain is often steep and winding, after all.
Comment:
This type of pattern can also occur on a stunted breakout to 6.1-6.3k. Keep your heads up and watch for FOMO if we get to that area.
Trade active:
And here we are at stage 1. This is very difficult and choppy to trade because pressure towards 6500 will be very high by retail traders and there will be many early shorts.
Be careful here and remember, FOMO is your enemy.
Be careful here and remember, FOMO is your enemy.
