Industrial stocks have been rangebound for most of the year, but now they might be breaking out.

Today’s weekly chart features the SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF, which holds stocks in groups like aerospace, general manufacturing, transportation and construction. The main pattern is the pair of lines at $120 and $126.

The lower price was near a weekly low in late February. XLI bounced there again in mid-April and mid-June. Sellers tried to break it last week but failed. The resulting false breakdown is a potentially bullish reversal pattern.

Next, peaks occurred around $126 in early April and mid-May. XLI tried to break out in late July before getting swept lower with the broader market. But now it’s back above the old resistance. It’s also on pace for a potential record weekly close, which could interest some longer-term momentum players.

Finally, retail sales have beaten estimates for two straight months and jobless claims have eased after increasing in June and July. That stronger economic backdrop may favor industrials, which are mostly viewed as cyclicals.

Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF (XLI)
1-year: +15.79%
5-years: +64.30%
10-year: +146.69%
(As of July 31, 2024)

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