EPISODE 7/11: US CONSUMER DISC-CYCLICALITY AND BULLISH TRENDLINE
Updated
Episode 7/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of July 2019
Brief Explanation of the chart:
XLY- Consumer Discretionary sector index has proven to be one of or if not the best performing sector since 2009. "Rubber-band" theory of recessions does support this bounce in performance based on the negative sentiment in 2009 during which the Discretionary sector was one of the worse performing benchmarks. This is mainly because of the strong correlation of XLY to the economic cycle.
Following the close above 42$ in 2011-12, which top was formed prior to the recession; XLY has been in a bullish channel supported by a strong bullish momentum. This can be seen from the chart as buyers have always found strength in the 14/21 Monthly EMA's (blue lines). It doesn't get more bullish than this. Part of the reason for the recent good performance since Trump took office is 2016 is the tax cuts, which directly translated into more disposable income available for discretionary investments.
The upside targets have been labelled, but this is with the assumption that a US-China trade deal will go through and Trump will win 2020. The structural supports are labelled as support zones. There is really not much to analyse based on the chart.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and learn more in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated!
-Step_Ahead_ofthemarket-
Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors:
EPISODE 6: US MATERIALS ( XLB ):
EPISODE 5: US INDUSTRIALS ( XLI ):
Brief Explanation of the chart:
XLY- Consumer Discretionary sector index has proven to be one of or if not the best performing sector since 2009. "Rubber-band" theory of recessions does support this bounce in performance based on the negative sentiment in 2009 during which the Discretionary sector was one of the worse performing benchmarks. This is mainly because of the strong correlation of XLY to the economic cycle.
Following the close above 42$ in 2011-12, which top was formed prior to the recession; XLY has been in a bullish channel supported by a strong bullish momentum. This can be seen from the chart as buyers have always found strength in the 14/21 Monthly EMA's (blue lines). It doesn't get more bullish than this. Part of the reason for the recent good performance since Trump took office is 2016 is the tax cuts, which directly translated into more disposable income available for discretionary investments.
The upside targets have been labelled, but this is with the assumption that a US-China trade deal will go through and Trump will win 2020. The structural supports are labelled as support zones. There is really not much to analyse based on the chart.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and learn more in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated!
-Step_Ahead_ofthemarket-
Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors:
EPISODE 6: US MATERIALS ( XLB ):
EPISODE 5: US INDUSTRIALS ( XLI ):
Note
Monthly RSI. Bullish channel support levels at 50.
Note
Quarterly XLY. Even smoother and cleaner trendline support at the 14/21 Quarterly "Momentum" EMA's(Blue lines).
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