XMRUSD Trend Analysis from January 2017

Mar 9, 2018

Opera has introduced the first crypto mining blocker built into the browser. This gives me more confidence about Monero moving forward as these botnets see some "costs" to doing business. Eventually ordinary miners will have a shot as all browsers implement these methods. If anything Monero has helped the overall network improve its security with the most egregious being Tesla's servers left unprotected without a password.

The hard fork to MoneroV also has brought in a lot more volume, maybe 3-5X more and so I'm looking at Monero again as a good long-term privacy coin. The hardfork to MoneroV has been pushed off to April 30th, which means we could see some good correlated price action if BTC continues to dip.

XMR has really held up with the dramatic fall in BTC and I wouldn't attribute this to growth necessarily because the hard fork talk has probably created more speculative interest in XMR over the last week or so and kept prices higher than what might be "fair". This influx of speculators could lead to a bigger dip relative to BTC going forward.

We can see the positive uptrend goes back to at least January (I think this is a Kraken XMRUSD chart and it doesn't show anything prior to January) 2017.

Given these price levels a reasonable target for entry might be in the $150 to $240 range. $230-$240 could be strong support, so some additional factors will need to be taken into account as the price action unfolds.

Mar 9, 2018

Note

Given the current ADX the trend is neutral and the price is roughly in the middle of the trading range. We want to see a stronger ADX to provide some guidance on an ideal target for selling or buying.

Mar 9, 2018

Note

150ish is a critical level because breaking this would likely lead to a drop below $100 and a test of $80-$85. It will be important to gauge the overall state of the markets should a dip to $150 occur, noting especially whether BTC has bottomed and is showing a reliable trend peak/reversal point.

Mar 9, 2018

Note

It's telling that XMRUSD is down 15.5% in the last 24 hours because that provides fairly strong evidence that speculators on the MoneroV hard fork have mostly bailed since the snapshot date has been pushed back.

We should anticipate a bullish move closer to the snapshot or at least consideration of a significant increase in volume going into April (especially if combined with a bottoming out around the target price levels).

Mar 9, 2018

Note

It's telling that the rest of the market (i.e. BTC, LTC) is mostly seeing a double top whereas XMRUSD has this lopsided double top where MoneroV hard fork speculators clearly entered the market to pump the price more relative to other cryptos.

And now that price has dipped back to the neckline on BTC, LTC, and XMR that suggests those speculators have been mostly cleared out of their positions.

Mar 9, 2018

Note

So hard fork speculation could reasonably account for around 15% upside in Monero if you look at the percentage move between the two "tops".

Mar 9, 2018

Note

Since the original hard fork was (I believe, going by memory) Mar. 14th, the price move started about 2 weeks prior perhaps trying to time the move with a breakout above an inverse H&S pattern. This could be the work of some group, especially out of Asia, after the XRP pump based on yet another questionable Coinbase rumor.

It can be useful to follow these groups or just certain people on crypto twitter. As the April hard fork comes into play it will be useful to look for potential patterns that the hard fork pump might align with unless the overall trend already looks positive and positions have already been taken.

Mar 10, 2018

Note

In light of the comments by an ex-CFTC chairman that crypto has not likely "burst" the market seems to reacting favorably and Bitcoin is driving the rest of the market. Since XMR has bounced back to close inside of the upward channel this poses well for an entry with significant upside over the weekend when these kinds of price movements tend to happen.

Mar 14, 2018

Note

One thing that I haven't considered is whether MoneroV is part of a pump and dump scam. Since it is just a knock off of Monero being "open source" doesn't mean more than being largely a cut and paste job like LItecoin.

Also, I wonder if those speculating on Monero prices movements are simply profiting from the trade rather than trying to procure free coins. That being said, Litecoin Cash drove a lot of people to Litecoin and there seems to have been no drop off at all after the hard fork other than from Bitcoin correlated price movements.

Mar 19, 2018

Note

I am holding bags on this one though I could've exited with a profit and I've been profiting off dips. Prior to writing this I knew a lot less about market timing with indicators than I do now. Overall, with the hard fork ahead XMR should still stay fairly strong especially if BTC reverses or stabilizes in price.