Trend is your friend & the fallacy of catching reversalsHere in this video, I discuss with you a losing trade which I took today and what we can learn from it.
I also share with you important things regarding gaps , and how a beginner is always trapped in reversals and why it's profitable to stay on the current side of the trend.
Follow @piyushrawtani if you find this video helpful .
Niftyoutlook
Nifty Future - Educational This Nifty Future Chart i have used in this Educational Tutorial is to summarize how many parameters keep playing in disguise on Daily Charts which is possible to track properly only in Short Term Trades .
The Trade Setups for Longs / Shorts are those which i have personally Taken in markets in recent times for short term setups . The Overall Risk Reward is positive till date but not as expected due to high Volatile Markets in last 1 year
XABCD Patterns used in this chart is a casual approach to show how things start making sense once the pattern is completed :)
ABCD Pattern used is to Project Nifty Future Probable Target in coming days
Ongoing Long Setup :
Reason 1 : The Last Long Entry which was made around 15th of July is a case of Trend Change Expectation as per Time Cycle , If u notice the projected path of ABCD Pattern (from weekly chart) hasn't moved as expected but there was a price decay instead of time so this trade made a lot of sense
Reason 2 : First Entered this trade around 15th of July which was clearly a Buy and i have published this idea under my profile during the day, but with following days Nifty Future hasn't even shown a single day of weakness on Daily Charts on closing basis.
How i Projected Targets in advance:
All Targets Projected in advance are Fibonacci levels of last swings i personally use 1.27 & 1.61 (to Project Initial & Profit Targets respectively) but if market keeps rolling without correction then i am happy to hold with trailing Stops.
This is my First Educational Content for my friends/followers , Tried my best to explain the rational on chart which you can practice by urself using Bar Replays and can find my Entry Reasons which are mostly retracements of last swings .
Intraday Trade Setups are totally different as most of these patterns goes unnoticed due to scarcity of time ( attaching few NIFTY ideas i shared in last few days). I will try to make another tutorial for Intraday Trade setups which i mostly trade
The downside is as you start trading lower time frames our/your success rate too keep diminishing but the game is to win only via Proper Risk Reward Management in each and every single trade :) which is the hardest task but not an impossible one
Do Comment , share and "LIKE" if you find this info valuable to use .
Attached below few Related Ideas posted under my profile in recent time.
Happy Hunting ,
Chintamani
Disclaimer.
I am not SEBI registered analyst.
My studies are for educational & General purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor if you have plans of trading or investing.
You yourself hold sole responsibility of profits and your losses arising of above shared info
NIFTY REVIEW | 20-07-2021NSE:NIFTY
It open with gap down in the range of 15720.
It gave the significant Bullish Candle at 9.:30 , which break the level of 15685 zone. Which shows the bearish sign in the market.
But as per our scenario 2 we were expecting gap down till 15645 Zone but today that level of 15645 zone reached with the 3rd candle at 9:45am. And then it took reversal to test 15685 zone and faced the resistance.
And as per our scenario 2 this zone was the entry zone for PE/Short side and it hit our 1st target as per our first target and it was easy 50 points.
I have also mentioned 2nd entry in the Chart. Most of trader might have also taken that entry as well.
Some trader might have also get the 3rd entry as In 2nd half it again went up to test 15685 zone and failed again to break it above this level. And gave a very good move of 50points again. So it was the same 2nd trade at the same levels on the same day.
I am posting it to explain, working of price action at different levels. So sometimes if Nifty doesn't open as per our assumption then we have to follow our levels to get the trade. This is what happened today.
Do comment if you have any doubt. Also comments if my ideas and levels are helping you to understand price action.
Nifty 50 Bullish Reversal Harmonic Pattern Nifty 50 in its all-time high and has started a sideways movement which has supported by Shark harmonic pattern in the hourly chart.
The expected move could be until D point i.e. 12878 to 13010 level downwards. We can find quality support on that price point.
Please create your strategy accoudingly.
NIFTY INDEX TREND SETUP NIFTY INDEX TREND SETUP
-NIFTY WITNESS ONE OF THE WILDEST SWING THIS WEEK
-THE CRUCIAL PART THAT I AM EXPLAINING EVERONE IS THAT 9950 WAS NOT BREACH ON A WEEKLY CHART AS WELL ON DAILY
-THE SHORT COVERING RALLY IN THE INDEX PROVED TO BE VERY VITAL
-THIS INDICATES THE STRENGTH IN BUY ON DIPS MARKET
-20 AND 50 EMA WERE TESTED GAPS WERE CLOSED AND THE PRICES MOVED ON
-WHAT IT CONFIRMED ON A DAILY CHART IS A "FALSE BREAKOUT DOWN"
-200-EMA IS FALLING
-INDEX IS STALLING
-NIFTY CAN KEEP CRAWLING TOWARDS 10440(61.8%) ZONE
NIFTY TRADE SCENARIO
-WHENEVER THERE IS A FALSE BREAKOUT WE EXPECT FIRST THE OPPOSITE BOUND TO BE TESTED (10330)
-"BULLISH MARABUZO" CANDLESTICK PATTERN VISIBLE
-NIFTY HOLDS ON TO ITS SUPPORT OF 9950
-I KNOW SGX IS INDICATINGA NEGATIVE START BUT STILL NOT BROKENDOWN I EXPECT MARKET TO RECOVER ON MONDAY
-CRUCIAL TO REGAIN 10030 WHICH IS ALSO ONE OF MY CRUCIAL SUPPORT LEVEL AS WELL AS 100-EMA ZONE
-NEXT LEVELS TO BE TESTED
10130
10165
10220
10275
10330
-ON THE DOWNSIDE
9880
9830
9750
-WILL ALL ACT AS SUPPORT FOR THE MARKET
"WHAT IS CONFIRMED IS A VISIBLE RISING WEDGE PATTERN FOR NOW"
"INITALLY I THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE A BULLISH CHANNEL" (CHECK PREVIOUS CHARTS)
"BUY ON DIPS" RECOMMENDED
"MY VIEW IS CLEAR WE CAN BREAK OR TEST 10330"
NIFTY: Intraday Supply and Demand Zones-- 8400-8500 was a supply zone for Nifty and today it was managed to close above this zone. Next supply zone @ 8950-9050 and major supply zone @ 9300-9500. On the downside minor support @ 8650 and 8400-8500.
-- Demand Zones: 8650 / 8400-8500
-- Supply Zones: 8950-9050 / 9300-9500
Nifty: Intraday Trade Plan
Today Nifty final closing was 11992 (below its supply zone @ 12000-12010). Tomorrow may be Nifty will trade in a wide range. If Nifty will sustain below 12000 then I may short Nifty OTM call and if it will sustain above 12000 then it may test 12060, in this case, I may avoid the trade.
Trade Well
NIFTY: Intraday Trade plan for Option Selling Hello,
Finally today Nifty closed below its major demand zone @ 12085-12120. Now, 12085-12120 is a major supply zone and 11975-12000 is a major demand zone. As I mentioned in yesterday's post today, I made a short position in 12100 calls and carried this position. Future selling may not be a good juicy trade so I will make my position in option writing in the 11975-12100 range.
Nifty: Intraday Trade PlanYesterday I was bearish but today it opened the gap up and closed near the demand zone.
Demand Zone: 12085-12115
Supply Zone: 12160-12170
Resistance: 12300
Tomorrow if it will sustain above 12170 then I may go long. I will be more confident once it will sustain above 12200, in this case, I may add more qty in the long side.
If it will sustain below 12085 then I may go short.
No trade zone: 12085-12175
Thank X
Nifty: Enjoyed Short Side Trade ?Hello,
As I have mentioned in my yesterday's Nifty Post for Intraday Trade. I have mentioned my bearish view on Nifty.
Now Nifty Supply zone @ 12085-12115 and Next Demand Zone @ 12025-12035 and 12950-12975. My view is still bearish but tomorrow expecting a wide sideways move.
Trade well
Nifty: Weekly Analysis: "Bhav Bhagwan Che"Hello,
Nifty is ready for the big move in this week and the maximum possibility is that this move will be on the downside.
On the upside, it's difficult to trade above 12200-12300 zone. I will change my view once it will trade above 12300 in this coming week.
I will watch 11700 and11600 zone, in any correction nifty will take support from 11700 or 11600 levels. If it will break 11600 then another 100 points downside will open.
In short below 12200 Nifty will be sell on rise for me. and my final targets are 11950-11900-11850-11800-11700.
Trade Well
Nifty: Intraday Trade Plan Hello,
Nifty Major Supply Zone @ 12200 and Supply zone @ 12060.
I am expecting Nifty to be sideways tomorrow.
If Nifty will trade above 12200 then only I will take a long position.
If it will break 12080 levels with volume then I will take a short position or else I will wait to sustain below 12060 for short position.
Trade Well
Nifty: Intraday Trade Setup for Expiry Nifty: Intraday Trade Setup for Expiry
As I have mentioned in my previous day's posts, I am buying Nifty on every breakout of its supply zone. Now I am in that position that If tomorrow Nifty will open 100 points gap dow then also I will be in a profit.
The trend is your friend and " Bhav Bhagwan Che". Received many messages who took a short trade and now they are stuck. They are bearish in the market and on every strong momentum they made a short position (In some case analysis may go wrong is a different thing but don't have a knowledge of analysis is a different thing).
As per my view in the short term trend, neither I am bullish nor bearish and in a long term time frem I am bullish but this view doesn't impact my intraday trading.
Anyways, Tomorrow If Nifty will trade in the 12050-12120 zone then I will trade in option writing. If Nifty will sustain above 12135 then I will go long in Fur for the target of 12200.
Trade Well.
Nifty Analysis For tomorrow major demand zone is 11875-11890 and a strong supply zone is 12086-12118.
Tomorrow if it will sustain above 11975 then it may test its next supply zone @ 12085-12120, in this scenario I may go long in Future. If it will sustain below 11975 then I may sell out of the money call and put option.
Thank x
Updated Levels for The NiftyHello,
Nifty has broken the major demand zone @ 11915-11930. Now the short term chart is damaged.
On Saturday Nifty closed @ its major demand zone @ 11595-11640. Sustain below this zone another 80-125 points downside range will open and it may test 11520 and 11490-11480 zone. On the upside first supply zone @ 11710-11720.
I want to see its trading range on Monday for at list 30 mins to 1 hour then only I will take a trading call.
I will decide once the market will open.
Trade Well.
Nifty is Ready to Test Below 12000 Levels.Hello,
As I have mentioned in my previous post that everyone is waiting for the gap filling process and expecting bounce from this level. Market will never give easy money...Find the link below for that post.
Some people are now talking about 11600. Tomorrow if market will trade below 12000 then they will become more bearish. Be careful there are 80% chances that these level may not come.
Major Demand zones @ 11965-11985 and 11915-11930
Trade Well
NIFTY: Now Everyone is Happy that Gap Filled...Hello, As I said in my yesterday post that once Nifty will sustain below 12100 it may test 12035-12050.
Now problem is that 12035-12050 level was on radar for many retail traders because of gap. Many traders also made long position from this gap. It will be the best business if market is this much easy. As per my analysis still there is a 50% chance that Nifty will test below 12000 level and make bottom near 11950-12000 zone. Ads I believe "bhav bhagvan che", I will wait for the price conformation before take a long trade.
Trade Well.
NIFTY is getting ready to make New Highs.Hello,
As I mentioned in my yesterday post that I am not bullish in Nifty for short term period.
12100 is a last support. Once it will sustain below 12100 in intraday it may test 12050-12035 zone. In coming days in case If Nifty will sustain below 12035 then 11965-11985 zone. I will change my view from bearish to bullish @ 12035-12050 and 11965-11985 zones and take a trade according.
Nifty should test any of this level on or before budget day. After budget again Nifty may resume it's uptrend.
Trade Well.
Nifty Weekly Analysis - Still Correction is PendingHello,
Nifty is in a bullish trend in all higher time frem but still one small correction is pending which will be around to 12000-12050 zone.
Before this correction 12300-12345 will be the major supply zone and 12000-12050 and 11975-12000 will be the strong demand zones.
I am not expecting one way fall or one way upside because there are multiple supports at downside and resistance at upside. So I will create long or short position in option writing instead of Future.
Trade Well
NIFTY: Are You Bullish .... ?Hello,
As I have mentioned my yesterday post that If Nifty will sustain above 12225 then I may go long. Today I was Long in the Nifty and exited with some profit points.
I have observed that buying strength was missing today. I don't think that 12100 is a good support and it a bottom of this correction which is started from 12420. My view is remain same which I have shared in my earlier posts that still gap Filling is pending, this is just a bounce and major support @ 12000-12050.
Strong Supply Zone @ 12295-12345
Minor Demand Zone @ 12190-12225
I prefer to take a position in Juicy trade so I may take a short position If it will come to 1300-12345 zone or once it will sustain below 12190. I will avoid long side trade in Nifty.
I will update this post if I will change my mind during the intraday and will shade my trade here.
Shared the Link of some of my today's Intraday Trades.
Trade Well