BUDGET 2024: Technical Outlook & Money Flow in Different SectorsNSE IT SECTORS NSE:CNXIT
TREND: POSITIVE
India IT sector is currently on an upward trend.
After a bullish Pole & Flag pattern was spotted on the chart, a breakout occurred leading to a surge in index and the formation of a bullish Pennant pattern.
Encountering resistance at the 38,600 level, the IT index underwent a correction and consolidation phase.
During this consolidation, a Rounding Bottom pattern emerged, suggesting a potential continuation of the trend.
Since the breakout, the index has successfully maintained levels above the breakout point and is steadily climbing higher.
NSE FMCG SECTORS NSE:CNXFMCG
TREND: POSITIVE
The chart shows a strong uptrend.
In the past, there was a bullish Pole & Flag pattern formation, resulting in a surge after the breakout.
The index faced significant resistance at 58,000, causing a correction and consolidation.
A Cup & Handle pattern appeared emerged in the chart, suggesting a potential continuation of the trend.
The recent breakout in the cup & handle pattern suggests that the FMCG index has managed to stay above the breakout level and is gradually moving higher.
NSE METAL SECTORS NSE:CNXMETAL
TREND: NEGATIVE
The metal industry underwent a period of consolidation time and again in the past.
Reaching a peak near the 10,200 level, the metal index consolidated again, and a recent breakdown suggests a potential downward movement.
Looking at the downside, the 8,800 level could serve as a solid support, leading to a possible rebound in the index.
NSE MEDIA SECTOR NSE:CNXMEDIA
TREND: NEGATIVE
A bullish Ascending Triangle pattern was visible in the chart earlier.
Instead of breaking upwards, the index experienced a breakdown, marked by a powerful bearish marubozu candle.
Furthermore, the support level was breached, leading to a notable decline.
The index eventually found support and traded within a box pattern.
Following the breakout, the index rallied but encountered resistance at the former support level, now acting as a resistance post-breakdown.
It is anticipated that the Media index will continue to decline and potentially find support around the 1,750 level.
Nse
NIFTY 50 (BULLs VS BEARs) Date - 13th March 2024
Time - 10:05 AM
After seeing today's move of gap up opening and then filled the gap again.
FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE
1. This Volume indicator is more useful than ordinary horizontal and time base volume indicator.
2. Its Flexible to use and you can put wherever you want to identify at that particular time who are the dominators (BULLS OR BEARS), who made that particular move in market.
3. As we can see in chart, I have put 2 Fixed range volume tools for 2 different times, in that Red Lines come out it is showing POC (Point of Control) for that selected range.
4. If Current price is below POC line than we can say Bears are in Dominance , as per current situation in Nifty 50.
5. If Price roaming above POC line means Bulls are in all over Dominance so far.
So, after using this tool we can identify within dark volume range (shown in chart) sluggish movement expected and Until Price won't break POC line and High-volume range either side strong and rational move should not expected.
Lower the volume at any particular price faster the movement we can expect.
Options Decoded: Intrinsic Value, Moneyness RevealedCracking the Code: Understanding Intrinsic Value and Moneyness in Options Trading
Welcome to the journey of unraveling the mysteries of options trading. Today, we'll demystify two crucial concepts: Intrinsic Value and Moneyness. Let's dive in.
# Moneyness in a Nutshell
In options trading, Moneyness is the magic word that describes the relationship between the option's strike price and the current price of the underlying asset. It's like deciphering the secret code to assess an option's potential profitability.
At-the-Money (ATM) Options:
An option is ATM when its strike price closely aligns with the current market price of the asset. No profits or losses just yet.
Example: If a stock is at ₹1,000, an ATM call and put option would both have a strike price of ₹1,000.
In-the-Money (ITM) Options:
ITM options have a strike price favorable for profits if exercised immediately. They come with a higher premium.
Example: With the stock at ₹1,000, a call option with a ₹950 strike is ITM, and a put option with a ₹1,050 strike is also ITM.
Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Options:
OTM options have a strike price unfavorable for immediate profits. They have a lower premium.
Example: If the stock is at ₹1,000, a call option with a ₹1,050 strike is OTM, and a put option with a ₹950 strike is OTM.
Moneyness is a dynamic concept. An option that's ATM now can become ITM or OTM as the underlying asset's price moves.
# Demystifying Intrinsic Value
Now, let's spotlight Intrinsic Value, the hidden treasure within an option. Intrinsic Value is the real, tangible value an option holds.
For Call Options:
- Intrinsic Value = Spot Price - Call Option Strike Price
Scenario 1: If Bank Nifty is at ₹40,000 and the call option strike is ₹39,000,
- Intrinsic Value = ₹1,000 (Profitable)
Scenario 2: Call option strike at ₹40,500,
- Intrinsic Value = ₹0 (Non-Negative)
Scenario 3: Call option strike at ₹41,500,
- Intrinsic Value = ₹0 (Non-Negative)
For Put Options:
- Intrinsic Value = Put Option Strike Price - Spot Price
Scenario 4: Put option strike at ₹41,000,
- Intrinsic Value = ₹1,000 (Profitable)
Scenario 5: Put option strike at ₹39,500,
- Intrinsic Value = ₹500 (Profitable)
Scenario 6: Put option strike at ₹38,000,
- Intrinsic Value = ₹0 (Non-Negative)
Remember, Intrinsic Value can't go negative. It represents the concrete worth of the option based on the current market conditions.
Mastering these concepts is like wielding a powerful sword in the options trading arena. Stay tuned for more insights into the fascinating world of financial possibilities!
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Power of 25, 75, and 125-Minute Timeframes in the Indian MarketSelecting the right time frame for technical analysis is a crucial decision for any technical analyst. In the Indian market, the trading session lasts for 375 minutes, starting from 9:15 AM and ending at 3:30 PM. While many traders commonly use the 30-minute, 1-hour, and 2-hour time frames, these intervals often result in incomplete candles, which can distort the accuracy of the analysis. Instead, opting for the 25-minute, 75-minute, and 125-minute time frames can provide more complete data, leading to more informed trading decisions.
Drawbacks of traditional time frames:
When using a 30-minute time frame, there are 13 candles formed, with the last candle representing only 15 minutes of trading. This disrupts the technical analysis process. By switching to a 25-minute time frame, traders can overcome this issue and work with 15 complete candles per trading day.
Traditional 1-hour time frames produce 7 candles, including a final 15-minute candle, which interrupts the smooth flow of technical analysis. By adopting a 75-minute time frame, traders can obtain 5 complete candles, offering a more comprehensive perspective on price movements.
Instead of confining analysis to a 2-hour time frame, which results in an incomplete final candle, traders can harness the power of a 125-minute time frame. With 3 complete candles per trading session, each representing a 125-minute interval, a more comprehensive understanding of price dynamics can be achieved.
Benefits:
Enhanced accuracy in analysing price action, as each candle represents a complete interval of 25, 75, or 125 minutes.
Reduced gaps in price action, as each candle becomes a complete unit of time.
Clearer depiction of trends with fewer distractions from incomplete candles.
Improved visibility of trends, as each candle provides a more representative snapshot of the price action.
A more holistic view of the market, aiding in the identification of key support and resistance levels. If you utilize concepts like RBR, RBD, DBR, and DBD, it is recommended to use these time frames, as the presence of an incomplete candle can inadvertently impact your analysis. You may mistakenly consider the last incomplete candle as a base or leg candle, which can affect your overall analysis.
Conclusion:
In the Indian stock market, precision and accuracy are vital for successful trading. By embracing unconventional time frames like 25 minutes, 75 minutes, and 125 minutes, traders can enhance their technical analysis capabilities and gain a competitive edge. Although these specific time frames are available through TradingView's paid plans, traders without access can still utilize traditional time frames. However, it is essential to recognize the limitations and potential disruptions caused by incomplete candles. Embracing the power of these alternative time frames unlocks a clearer and more comprehensive view of the market, empowering traders to make confident trading decisions.
This article is written by Afnan Tajuddin with the aim of encouraging Indian traders to adopt powerful timeframes commonly used by professional traders, to enhance their technical analysis skills.
If you found this article helpful, please consider following me for more analysis and educational articles. Your likes and comments are appreciated, as they motivate me to provide more analysis for you. If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the comment box below.
Thank you for reading this educational article.
Some tips for beginners to get started in stock marketHere are some tips for beginners to get started in the stock market and for those looking to become pro traders---------
Start with the basics: Before diving into the stock market, make sure you have a solid understanding of the fundamentals of investing, such as how the stock market works, how to read financial statements, and the different types of investment vehicles available.
Set realistic goals: Determine your investment goals and risk tolerance to create a portfolio that suits your needs. Keep in mind that investing is a long-term strategy, and it's essential to have patience and discipline.
Do your research: Conduct thorough research on the companies or sectors you plan to invest in. Look for companies with strong financials, a competitive advantage, and a clear growth strategy.
Diversify your portfolio: Diversification is key to managing risk in the stock market. Invest in a mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets to spread your risk across different sectors and industries.
Keep an eye on the market: Stay up-to-date with the latest news and trends in the stock market. Monitor your investments regularly and be prepared to make adjustments if necessary.
Learn from your mistakes: Investing involves risk, and it's normal to make mistakes. Use your losses as an opportunity to learn and refine your strategy.
Consider professional help: If you're new to investing or don't have the time or expertise to manage your portfolio, consider working with a financial advisor or a robo-advisor to help you make informed investment decisions.
Keep emotions in check: It's easy to get caught up in the emotions of the market, but it's essential to maintain a level head and stick to your investment strategy.
Have patience: Successful investing takes time and patience. Avoid chasing quick gains and focus on long-term growth.
By following these tips, beginners can start building a solid foundation for investing in the stock market, while more experienced traders can refine their strategies and continue to grow their portfolios.
BEGINNERS RULE :1. Before starting any new venture, we must learn the basics of that subject.
So, learn the basic ABCD of trading.
2. Beginners should avoid the Futures and Option (f&o) trading.
First, one needs to get a good grip over the cash equity segment.
3. Learn technical analysis and try to master any one strategy and stick to it.
4. Avoid dependence on anyone for too long,
"Trust your own setup always”
5. Don't be impressed so quickly and start dreaming after seeing other trader's earning or profits screenshot.
6. 'Simplicity is the best policy.' Keep your analysis simple and stick to basics.
7. Backtest your new setup for at least 3 months to find out the Return on Investment (ROI) percentage.
8. Price Action is above all. Don't complicate your study with too many indicators/tools.
We have come here to earn money, not to complete a Ph.D.
9. Avoid business/finance TV channel recommendations.
Don't follow it blindly.
10. Mistakes are fine but try to avoid committing again and again.
11. Use proper and safe trailing stop-loss.
Keep learning and earning.
Happy profit making :)
Large Base Can Potentially Find ''MULTIBAGGER STOCKS''Nagreeka Exports has BO of long 4.3 yrs base with 7x volume . Can be bought on every dips for the target levels as mentioned on the chart.
Educational Points
Large Base
1 - Early rally
2 - First point of profit booking/sell off
3 - Base formation after profit booking/sell off - this is the point to consider adding the stock to the watchlist(supply getting absorbed) but not in the buy list.
4 - Smart Money action, taking the prices to the previous high which should act as a resistance
5 - JOIN THE PARTY AT BREAKOUT, Important point to consider is Volume at BO
6 - Conservative Confirmed Buying
Examples of Large Base Formation could be Nagreeka Exp
Wish You Happy & safe trading
Views are for ‘’EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY’’ trade at your own risk.
"Always Respect Risk"
Happy Trading
Jai Hind Jai Bharat
Pure Price Action Trading - Nifty/Banknifty Hello Traders! Here we gonna learn how one can trade Nifty/Banknifty using pure price action and get better results
Assuming that one knows what is Support and Resistance & know about candlesticks
So traders, all you need is to draw the support/resistance levels on your chart, here I've draw S/R levels in Banknifty and
timeframe I'm using is 15 mins for Intraday trading.
After plotting the Support/Resistance levels once the market opens we'll observe the market trend and we'll trade as per
the trend. So here we can see on 15 mins time frame that #Banknifty was making Higher high and Higher low so
as per that we can say it's a short term uptrend and on the current day the market opens below the previous swing
high and candle formation open = high indicates selling pressure
So here after the 15 min 1st candle closes on the small time frame of 5 min we can see a candle rejection from S/R zone
here we can take entry, it's #Banknifty so as an option buyer we'll short market by buying a PUT of near Out of the Money
After we'll set out stop loss before the entry candle in 5 min time frame and lot size is according to risk management
then here comes a flip zone, a S/R zone which act as flip zone that market can reverse or continue, at here we'll trail our SL to
cost, and on the chart one can see the candle gave a small pullback from flip zone S/R level but pullback was weak and market
continued to fell from broken support zone
Later we can see how prices reacting from support/resistance levels and finally it reversed from support zone
Price action is beauty, one can draw support/resistance levels and take action as per the price movement, candlesticks and trend
play an import role
Using The Fibonacci Retracement and Extension levels I've explained how can can use Fibonacci levels in trading using example of NSE:TATA STEEL
. Firstly know your trading perspective, and choose your chart time frames accordingly
. Now use higher time frame chart and draw FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT TOOL from bottom to top(in Uptrend)
and top to bottom (in downtrend) for current trend.
. Mark the levels using horizontal line, near stock is trading currently
. Use smaller timeframe to get retracement levels in uptrend or in downtrend, and now make Fibonacci extension levels from top to bottom(in uptrend)
and bottom to top(in downtrend) for current swing
. Mark all the important levels, these will work as support and resistance
. Now, using RSI,MACD,EMA sets you can trade your position for these levels
HAPPY LEARNING AND START INVESTING
Study of BEL(Falling wedge and 200 SMA Support)BEL was forming falling wedge type pattern
it was getting support form 200 SMA( 2 time bounced)
Entry above 98
facing resistance near 92 to 98 also 50 SMA was in this zone
by seeing volume one can clearly see that in negative day volume was drying up but
in positive day volume were good