The Jan to Dec of Technical Analysis - 1 strategy per month1. January - The Value at Play
Before we start discussing the different technical chart patterns, we need to have some clarity on how buying and selling happens on stocks and options. Every trade has a buyer or seller. That means at a specific point in time, for a specific price there are 2 conflicting thoughts
Someone who thinks the price is too cheap
Someone who thinks the price is damn expensive
The guy who thinks the stock/option is cheap is ready to buy and the guy who thinks it is expensive and it is a good time to sell.
Just think, how is it that two people can have conflicting mindsets about the same instrument at the same time? I am 100% sure that both of them cannot be right, one of them is making a wrong decision. Over time - 5 minutes, 50 minutes, 5 hours, 50 hours, 5 days, 50 days, or 500 days - whatever the period be, that particular instrument will tick away from the quoted price - either move up or move down.
This leads to the important question - what is the fair value? If you have an internal price gauging mechanism - you can quickly calculate if the price quoted is below or above the fair value. Wow, that looks exciting - can you give me the shortcut to calculate the fair price?
Unfortunately, there is no holy grail that does it for you, over time you need to develop that tool or spreadsheet. Have you heard the saying, “Veterans are good stock pickers” - It is mainly because of their experience in the markets. They have developed the intuition to guess the fair value when they see the ticker tape without relying on a spreadsheet or calculator.
The first rule is “Never buy anything at a premium and never sell anything at a discount”. This rule does not guarantee that you will not lose money - but it is a filter that weeds out poor decision-making. The question arises - how do I calculate the fair price of a stock or options strike?
A good place to start would be to start reading “The Little Book of Valuation: How to Value a Company, Pick a Stock and Profit (Little Books. Big Profits) by Aswath Damodaran” - you can even finish the book in 2 straight hours. It gives some insights into valuation techniques.
Most valuation methods available in the markets are part of “Fundamental Analysis”, you might ask me - “What does that have to do with Technical Analysis?”. My answer is everything. Technical Analysis is the process of guessing the future price by looking at the historical data. But what the stock/option has to do with the price today is mostly due to fundamental reasons. A mix of fundamental + technical study is much better than pure fundamental or pure technical analysis.
These days lot of people have turned to options trading as a side gig to make some extra money. Someone would have told them, that it is easy to make money in options trading. The biggest mistake they make would be to short-sell a strike too cheap and buy a strike too pricey. Option premiums do not move in a linear pattern and are totally different from the valuation techniques used to gauge the underlying. If you are able to calculate the fair value of a particular strike with some level of accuracy - then you can avoid selling it cheap and buying it pricey. More often than not, not taking a trade would be the best trade there is. If something is way above your price level, choose not to buy. If way below, choose not to sell. Have faith that a better opportunity will come and gather the courage to skip the trade.
There are 2 option types - CALLS and PUTS. The option strikes above the current trading price are called CALLS and the strikes below the price are called PUTS. The premiums of these far-away strikes are not that easy to calculate or guess, mainly because the prices are derived by a few factors like price movements, time, level of uncertainty & the interest rates in the markets.
This makes options trading like a double-edged sword. You get it right - it will reward you more than you can imagine. You get it wrong - it will take away what you have and more. I think hard guessing the fair value of a particular strike of a stock or index is 10 times more complicated than assessing the intrinsic value of that index/stock. This means if you took 15mts to find out the fair value of say “PQR” stock, you might take 150+ minutes to assess the price of a strike say 2600 CE when PQR is trading at 2500. The challenge here is that, once you calculate the fair price - the goal post would have shifted. A change in time will affect the strike prices as “time” is a variable that contributes to its value - so it is a moving target.
Now tell me, what would you call someone when they say “Options trading is easy”, “You can make 100000 in 1 month with just Rs1000 capital”, “100% guaranteed success in options trading…” etc.
The next thing to know is the difference between trading and investing. Both are tools intended to make money but the main difference is the “time” component. Investing is usually done with no particular “time” value in mind whereas trading is done for a specific “time period”. That is why you hear people say, I have bought “XYZ” stock for the long term - Even if it appreciates in price say 10% in 10 days, the investor may not sell it. Partly because they do not want to miss out on further gains after selling.
On the other hand, trading is done with a specific time frame in mind. The trader is only worried about the prices during that window. What happens after that is none of this botheration. The fear of missing out seldom affects the trader because they know their next opportunity will come if they keep looking.
Time has more relevance & weightage than you can possibly imagine. In fact, price is relative to time and it is not the other way around. You can physically measure this concept in options trading wherein strikes go to zero value on the expiry date. The major index options have weekly expiry and the stock options have monthly expiry. So a particular strike will go from “X” value to “0” value in a week. Also important to note that during this lifecycle the strike could swing between X to 4X to 100X to 0.5X to 0.2X and end at 0 after the expiry. The prices of a strike are much more volatile than their underlying - this is the main reason options trading is a double-edged sword.
Generally, people do not respect time. Most of them respect money more than time. The decisions they make are usually to save money even if it means to waste time. If you are into stock markets - that should change. Even though your purpose is to make money - you should give the due credit to the “time factor”. Let me explain with an example. A trader buys 100 qty of ABC at 1500 intending to sell it at 1600 once the results are out. If on the results day the prices drop to 1400 - that trader will say “Let me not book the loss, I will hold it for some more time for the prices to recover”. In this particular instance, the trader is not ready to book the loss but hoping that his money will recover. Most long-term investors are traders who forget to close their trades.
A trader has to have a 180-degree opposite mindset of an investor because we are playing with limited resources. If your money is blocked on a particular trade for a period longer than your calculation - then it is 100% true that you will not be able to take another trade when there is an opportunity. No trader in the world has unlimited resources and unlimited leverage but all of them have got the exact same amount of time per day. If you know how to manage the time - the money will find a way.
This comes to the final segment of this chapter - “Value at Play”. It means the amount of money adjusted for the time factor to the reward it brings in. You might be familiar with the word “Value at Risk” (VaR). Value at Play is something similar but not measured in the same way.
.... to be continued...
Tradingstrategies
Bar Counting and Trading Setup.NSE:BAJFINANCE
In this video, we have discussed how you can count the bars to identify when a pullback is ending and use it for a trading setup to trade with the trend.
The Full setup is explained in the video, Watch and share with your friends.
Give a like and comment with your views or queries.
Keep learning,
Happy Trading.
Thank you
Turbo Breakout Setup: High-Probability Trades with Precision.NSE:CNXFINANCE
Hello Traders,
In this video, I have explained a Breakout trading setup that will generate only high-probability breakout trades, that have high success rate than another breakout.
The setup is based on a pure price action structure and does not require any indicators just we are using volume as a confirmation tool.
Why does this setup work?
The logic is very simple
let's talk about the 1st variation of this setup:- Fake Breakout
as you can see in this setup most of the time the structure completes after a fake breakout.
So that fake breakout means the short sellers in the correction phase trying to defend there stop loss and make prices go down but what do you think for how long they will be able to defend that zone when buyers' strength is increasing? so after that when buyers push the price a little above-failed breakout zone the price hits short sellers stop losses and include new buying at that level to push prices toward the sky.
What about scenario 2nd:- NO failed breakout but horizontal range inside trend resistance line.
When the trend Resistance line and horizontal line break at the same price point it invites many traders to put a limit order above that horizontal line and most of the short sellers also have put their stop loss when that zone hit the price again and start moving towards the sky.
Other factors and detailed setup have been explained in the video.
Any setup is useless without a pre-defined stop loss cause you need to focus on capital protection first then you can aim for profits.
Always take calculated risks and use proper position sizing.
This is only for educational purposes only.
Always trade with stop-loss.
I hope you found this idea helpful.
Please like and comment.
Share with Your Friends.
Keep Learning,
Happy Trading!
How to select the Stocks for INTRADAY Trading #tradingstratergyHow to select stocks for Intraday or short term.
We can do this in two ways.
First one, using manual method and the second one is using screeners
For day trading, we need to complete the trading in the first 1:15hours or last 1:15 hours i.e at 2:15 pm as the volume tends to be more by this time, in between, the market will be in the consolidation oe else, it will be setting for a new trend.
123 Reversal Bearish Pattern TradingSetup
The 123-chart pattern is a three-wave formation, where every move reaches a pivot point. This is where the name of the pattern comes from, the 1-2-3 pivot points.
The structure of 123 chart pattern
The pattern appears after three price movements, which form three pivot points and a confirmation level.
Pivot point 1.
This is a turning point that the price formed during the trend. If a price breaks the previous trendline after it formed pivot point 1, the pattern will be more reliable.
Pivot point 2.
The next turning point is very likely to form outside of the previous trendline or channel. This is a good indication that the trend might be ready to end and reverse.
Pivot point 3.
Pivot point 3 is crucial for 123 reversal chart patterns. The point must not exceed the pivot point 1 (in the worst case it might be on the same level) for the pattern to be valid.
Confirmation level
The confirmation level is our entry point in the market. It is located at the same level as pivot point 2. When price breaks through this level open the trade.
Target level
To set the target trader needs to connect 1 and 3 pivot points with a line. The size of your 123 pattern equals the vertical distance between Line 2 (which is a horizontal line at the level of 2 pivot point) and the midpoint of Line 1.
123 chart pattern stop loss setup
It is highly important to use stop loss when trading the 123 chart pattern. The stop loss should be set under pivot point 3 in the bullish trend reversal, and above in the bearish one. In the condition of high market volatility, the price might get pushed beyond the 2 pivot point for a while. That’s why it will be a good idea to set stop-loss slightly beyond the 3 pivot point, as this will prevent stop loss from being activated.
123 Reversal Pattern Trading23 reversal setup is a basic on-chart formation, that warns about upcoming trend reversal.
Setup
The 123-chart pattern is a three-wave formation, where every move reaches a pivot point. This is where the name of the pattern comes from, the 1-2-3 pivot points.
123 pattern works in both directions. In the first case, a bullish trend turns into a bearish one. And the second picture presents the opposite, a bearish trend turns into a bullish one.
The structure of 123 chart pattern
The pattern appears after three price movements, which form three pivot points and a confirmation level.
Pivot point 1.
This is a turning point that the price formed during the trend. If a price breaks the previous trendline after it formed pivot point 1, the pattern will be more reliable.
Pivot point 2.
The next turning point is very likely to form outside of the previous trendline or channel. This is a good indication that the trend might be ready to end and reverse.
Pivot point 3.
Pivot point 3 is crucial for 123 reversal chart patterns. The point must not exceed the pivot point 1 (in the worst case it might be on the same level) for the pattern to be valid.
Confirmation level
The confirmation level is our entry point in the market. It is located at the same level as pivot point 2. When price breaks through this level open the trade.
Target level
To set the target trader needs to connect 1 and 3 pivot points with a line. The size of your 123 pattern equals the vertical distance between Line 2 (which is a horizontal line at the level of 2 pivot point) and the midpoint of Line 1.
123 chart pattern stop loss setup
It is highly important to use stop loss when trading the 123 chart pattern. The stop loss should be set under pivot point 3 in the bullish trend reversal, and above in the bearish one. In the condition of high market volatility, the price might get pushed beyond the 2 pivot point for a while. That’s why it will be a good idea to set stop-loss slightly beyond the 3 pivot point, as this will prevent stop loss from being activated.
The target level of 123 continuation pattern
The target of the “continuation 123 pattern” measures the same way as usual. The only exception is that in this case, you should take pivot point 3 as a starting one of your target.
How to set an alert for BankNifty Intraday Strategy [5min TF] ? Set Alert on 77% Profitable Bank-Nifty Back-tested Intraday Strategy with FREE TRIALS
Trend Follower Intraday for 5 minute Time-Frame (Adjustable) , that has the time condition for INDIAN | CRYPTO | FOREX Markets
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Unlike the Free Scripts - Risk Management , Position Sizing , Partial Exit etc. are also included .
Send us a Message to know more about the strategy.
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The Timing can be changed to fit other markets, scroll down to "SQUARE-OFF TIME" to know more.
The commission is also included in the strategy .
The basic idea is when ,
1) EMA1 crosses above EMA2 , is a Long condition.
2) EMA1 crosses below EMA2 , is a Short condition.
3) Green Section indicates Long position.
4) Red Section indicates Short position.
5) Allowed hours specifies the trade entry timing .
6) ATR STOP is the stop-loss value on chart , can be adjusted in INPUTS.
7) Target 1 is the 1st target value on chart , can be adjusted in INPUTS.
8) RISK is Maximum Risk per trade for the intraday trade can be changed .
9) Total Capital used can be adjusted under INPUTS.
10) ATR TRAIL is used for trailing after entry , as mentioned in the inputs below.
11) Check trades under the list of trades .
12) Trade only in liquid stocks .
13) Risk only 1-5% of total capital.
14) Inputs can be changed for better back-test results, but also manually check the trades before setting alerts
15) SQUARE OFF TIME - As you change the time frame , also change the square-off time to the candle's closing time.
Eg: For 3min Time-frame , Hour = 2Hrs | Minute = 57min
16) Strategy stops for the day if you have a loss .
17) COMMISSION value is set to 10Rs and SLIPPAGE value is set to 1 . Go to properties to change it .
Apply it to your charts Now !
Send us a message for FREE TRIALS | Instant Access
Thank You ☺
Gap up / gap down intraday strategy with simple entry / exitI get queries from a lot of people who don't want to study technical analysis much.
They're just focused on getting a predefined trading strategy, which they can use effectively in the market without looking much at the charts .
So, in this video, I share a strategy which has been given really good results and it works a lot of times and I believe the probability of this particular strategy is close to around 65 to 70%.
It has simple entry and exit rules, and you can only apply this particular strategy when the market opens gap up or gap down.
See, whenever the market opens gap up or gap down, there is high volatile period of the market during the beginning half an hour or an hour.
And in that period of time,if you place a trade, then you have a good probability if market moves as per expectation.
As you can see these days, nifty and back nifty have been creating gap up and gap down opening almost on a daily basis.
In this case, the first rule is that if the market opens gap up by more than half a percent.
So for example, if bank nifty opens gap up by more then 200 points. , then only you can apply this strategy.
And on the other hand, if nifty opens gap up or gap down by more than 50 or 60 points, then only you should think of applying this particular strategy.
Small gaps do not count in this strategy.
So if bank nifty gaps down or gaps up by only 50- 60 points, then avoid this strategy altogether.
See, whenever the market is opening gap up or gap down, there are two possibilities.
The market might continue the current trend.
For example, if the market opens gap up, the chances are that the market might move higher, or the other possibility is that the market might go sideways the whole day.
So ,in this case, whenever you see the market opening gap up or gap down by more than half a percent, just have to follow this simple procedure.
Just plot the 15 minute chart with a 20 exponential moving average.
Why 20 exponential moving average because the market usually gets good support and resistance around the 20 moving average.
You can expect the market to stall around the moving average for a lot of times if you take a trade.
So ,you just have to plot the 15 minute chart, and if the market gaps up or gaps down, you just have to watch the first 15 minute candle.
So if the market opens gap up and it forms a bullish candle.
Then , what you can do is you can sell puts if price breaks the first 15M candle high. You can sell puts with the stop loss at the low of the candle.
If the market comes below the low of the candlestick the first 15 minute bar, then you exit your position and book the loss.
Why sell puts?
The idea behind selling puts is that during the first 15-30 minutes, the volatility is on a very higher side during that period.
And if at that point of time you start to sell options, then with the passage of time, as the market starts to move sideways, the volatility reduces.
And, what occurs is a concept called IV Crush.
The volatility starts to reduce very quickly and that will give you a benefit if you sell a put, even if the market goes sideways.
So for example, the market formed a very big bullish candle, and the criteria is if it crosses the high of the candle ,sell puts .
So, the whole day, if the market is moving sideways/upwards , the volatility crush will start to happen.
And with the passage of time, you'll start to see the benefit of the IV Crush and the time decay.
So this is a very handy strategy which you can apply.
Always remember, keep the stop loss below of the first 15M candle.
It's a very effective technique, and it's based upon gap openings.
And ,the first 15 minutes usually tell us who is on the stronger side, who's winning , buyers or sellers.
So make sure the gap is big and whatever bar is being formed in the first 15 minutes.
If the bar is bullish, you sell a put If the price crosses the high of that candle stick, and stop plus below the low of that candlestick.
It's an effective rule based strategy and you can back test it on nifty and bank nifty.
And you can also check its reliability, its effectiveness, you can also add this particular strategy in your tool kit.
So I hope this strategy will provide some sort of value to you in your trading.
And if you find the video helpful, don't forget to like this and share it and also comment your thoughts.
Thank you very much and take care.
Pure Price Action Trading - Nifty/Banknifty Hello Traders! Here we gonna learn how one can trade Nifty/Banknifty using pure price action and get better results
Assuming that one knows what is Support and Resistance & know about candlesticks
So traders, all you need is to draw the support/resistance levels on your chart, here I've draw S/R levels in Banknifty and
timeframe I'm using is 15 mins for Intraday trading.
After plotting the Support/Resistance levels once the market opens we'll observe the market trend and we'll trade as per
the trend. So here we can see on 15 mins time frame that #Banknifty was making Higher high and Higher low so
as per that we can say it's a short term uptrend and on the current day the market opens below the previous swing
high and candle formation open = high indicates selling pressure
So here after the 15 min 1st candle closes on the small time frame of 5 min we can see a candle rejection from S/R zone
here we can take entry, it's #Banknifty so as an option buyer we'll short market by buying a PUT of near Out of the Money
After we'll set out stop loss before the entry candle in 5 min time frame and lot size is according to risk management
then here comes a flip zone, a S/R zone which act as flip zone that market can reverse or continue, at here we'll trail our SL to
cost, and on the chart one can see the candle gave a small pullback from flip zone S/R level but pullback was weak and market
continued to fell from broken support zone
Later we can see how prices reacting from support/resistance levels and finally it reversed from support zone
Price action is beauty, one can draw support/resistance levels and take action as per the price movement, candlesticks and trend
play an import role
Triangle Chart Patterns , Descending Chart PatternDescending chart pattern is a type of Triangle chart patterns . Descending chart pattern is formed when price is taking a support and forming continuous lower heights. Adequate buy or short area would be after the price gives a breakout . Descending pattern you can short or buy as well . Wait for the price to give a breakout and enter in which ever direction the breakout is given .
Please Share , Follow and Like if this content was useful and you gained some knowledge.
Trader... Cricketer & YOU: Part 2A batsman’s (trader’s) approach to his batting (trading plan) depends on
Whether he is playing:
- Test match (Long term investment)
- One day International ( Medium term)
- T20 match ( Short term / Leverage trade)
- Or for that matter a Rain hit T20 match ( Intra day High leverage high risk trade)
While playing a test match a batsman’s
- Focus is on avoiding temptations
- Keeping patience & willingness to leave a lot of deliveries
- Looks to hit when the ball is in his area of strength
- May score at slow pace but focus is on scoring big over period of time as he is aware & relaxed that time is on his side
While playing a T20 game
- looking to score at high strike rate but overall runs per match still restricted due to limitations of just 20 overs per match
- willing to take very high risks sometimes almost every delivery
- risks losing his wicket often
In ODIs
- tries to have a balanced approach
- looks to build his base & take calculated risk
- Unlike T20 match, batsman knows he has more time & hence can focus on planning, preparing and attacking at the opportune moment & revising his plan if there are deviations (after reading & getting a feel of the pitch, fall of wickets, targeting supposedly weaker bowler or last 10 overs, etc)
So what’s the similarity from trader’s perspective
Let’s see
A Test match trader / investor can
- Avoid the temptation of trading every trade
- Keep patience & should be willing to leave a lot opportunities he is unsure of
- trade when the price & trade set up is in his comfort level where he understands the risk & knows reward potential is far higher than risk involved
- focus on sustainable trades & stay in the market for a longer time
A T20 trader
- intraday / short term / leverage trader
- looks for higher leverage trade for higher reward potential on relatively less capital
- but overall profits per trade gets limited as leverage trades have a daily / weekly / monthly cut-off time
- hence many a times a high leverage trader cannot take full advantage of the complete potential movement in the stock
- often he also risks his capital (Wicket) as even a slight movement in the opposite direction can lead to Capital erosion
Medium term trader
- Looks to capture a decent opportunity & is willing to give the trade set up the time it deserves
- Uses trailing Stop loss to adjust as per markets movements
- Leverages only when he understands risk :: reward ratio and considers it to be favorable
- Does not risk by over-leveraging
Some food for thought…
I leave you with some numbers & stats, you decide what exactly you are looking for from trade…
- In T20 matches Virat hits a 6 every 24 deliveries on an average
- Compare this stat with his innings in the on-going IND vs SL test - scoring 243 runs in 287 deliveries but no sixes at all in such a big inning
- Although Virat’s ratio of scoring 6s in Test is very less
- he has an impressive 19 centuries in just 62 Test matches with a high score of 243
- compared to just 4 centuries in 226 T20 games with a high score of 113
- in the balanced format i.e ODIs, he has 32 centuries in 202 ODIs with a High Score of 183
Player is the same, ability is the same, capability is the same… but game format is different & players adjust to different format with different mentality and different strategies
If we analyse these numbers further, to score a big hundred, on an average, Virat requires
- just 3 matches in Tests,
- 6 matches in ODI format
- but requires a massive 56 matches in T20
So what are you looking for scoring 6s (taking higher risk) or scoring big over time (taking less risk)
Remember it is not about which format is good or bad, it is more about adjusting & blending yourself to fit in different time horizons and having realistic expectations with understanding of risk involved
Understand and be clear with your objectives before you enter a trade
Take care
To be cntd…