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Every Trader Has a Profitable Setup-Few Have the Mind to ExecuteHello Traders! Most traders spend years searching for the perfect strategy. They change indicators, timeframes, mentors, and markets again and again. But here’s the uncomfortable truth most people avoid: The problem is rarely the setup. The problem is execution. 1. A Good Setup Is Useless Without Discipline Many traders already have a setup that works on paper. Backtesting shows profits, but live trading tells a different story. Why? Because discipline disappears when real money is on the line. A setup only works when it is followed exactly as designed. 2. Fear and Doubt Kill Execution Fear makes traders exit early. Doubt makes traders skip valid entries. Overthinking makes traders add unnecessary confirmations. The setup did not fail. The mind interfered. 3. Traders Change Strategies to Escape Responsibility After a loss, it feels easier to blame the strategy. Switching setups feels productive, but it avoids the real issue. Consistency cannot be built on constant change. Execution improves only when responsibility is accepted. 4. The Market Rewards Repetition, Not Intelligence You do not need to be smarter than the market. You need to execute the same rules again and again. Edge comes from repetition, not creativity. Professional traders win because they do fewer things, not more. 5. The Real Edge Is Psychological Stability Sticking to rules during losing streaks. Not increasing risk after winning streaks. Treating every trade as just one of many. This is what separates consistent traders from emotional traders. Rahul’s Tip: Before searching for a new strategy, ask yourself one honest question: “Did I execute my current setup exactly as planned for the last 50 trades?” Most traders already know the answer. Conclusion: Every trader eventually finds a setup that can make money. Very few traders develop the mindset required to execute it calmly, repeatedly, and without emotion. Profitability begins the day you stop changing strategies and start mastering execution. If this post resonated with your trading journey, like it, share your thoughts in the comments, and follow for more mindset driven trading education.
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by TraderRahulPal
3
Sensex - Weekly review Dec 15 - Dec 19Friday's movement was choppy, and the price is now testing the intermediate resistance at the 85300 zone. Next resistance is at the 85500 zone. Buy above 85320 with the stop loss of 85180 for the targets 85460, 85580, 85740, 85900, 86060, 86220, 86400 and 86560. Sell below 84960 with the stop loss of 85100 for the targets 84840, 84700, 84540, 84400, 84240, 84080 and 83900. As per the daily chart, the price is testing the trend line, and it has to break and sustain above it. Always do your analysis before taking any trade.
BSE:SENSEX
by vanathi
2
Bajaj Finance: Impulse Complete, Correction in ControlBajaj Finance completed a clean five-wave impulsive advance , topping out near ₹1,102.5 , followed by a clear loss of momentum. Since that peak, price action has shifted from trend to overlap , signaling a corrective phase rather than continuation. Structurally, the decline is unfolding within a descending channel , fitting well with a W–X–Y corrective structure . The internal swings remain choppy and overlapping — classic correction behavior — with price respecting the channel boundaries so far. During the impulsive rally ( Waves 1–5 ), the 50 DMA acted as dynamic support , confirming strong upside momentum. Post the top, price has slipped below the 50 DMA and is now oscillating around it, indicating momentum fatigue . A sustained hold below the 50 DMA, combined with a rollover in the average , would reinforce the short-term bearish / corrective bias , with the average potentially flipping into dynamic resistance . From a price projection perspective, the ongoing Wave Y is favoring a move toward key Fibonacci retracement levels . The 0.618 retracement near ₹945 stands out as a high-probability reaction zone , while a deeper flush could extend toward the 0.786 retracement near ₹903 if downside pressure accelerates. Risk is clearly defined. A sustained break above the upper boundary of the corrective channel would invalidate the W–X–Y interpretation and signal a structural shift back toward strength . Until then, the path of least resistance remains corrective . Bottom line: The impulsive phase is done. The market is digesting gains. Structure — not emotion — favors patience and respect for the corrective channel. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BAJFINANCEShort
by WaveXplorer
1
IDBI Bank an opportunity to play disinvestment by Government IDBI Bank – Multi-Timeframe Technical View blended with disinvestment opportunity. IDBI Bank is trading near ₹99.8, testing a crucial long-term resistance zone around ₹100, visible on monthly and weekly charts. On the monthly timeframe, the stock has formed a strong rounded bottom from the ₹35–40 zone and is in a clear structural uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. A decisive breakout above ₹100 will mark a major trend reversal and can unlock a fresh long-term leg. On the weekly chart, price has been consolidating between ₹85–100 for several months, indicating healthy base formation after a strong rally. RSI around 57 remains in a neutral-positive zone, suggesting room for further upside without overbought conditions. Volumes have gradually improved during up-moves, supporting accumulation. On the daily chart, price is attempting a breakout from a short-term consolidation, with RSI near 54, showing improving momentum. Sustaining above ₹100 on a closing basis is key for continuation. Inverse H&S Pattern, Cup and Handle Pattern are also visible in different time frames. Trade Setup (Positional) Buy: On daily close above ₹100 Target 1: ₹112 Target 2: ₹125 Stop Loss: ₹92 (below consolidation support) Reasoning: A confirmed breakout above ₹100 can trigger momentum buying and short covering, while ₹92 acts as a strong demand zone. Risk-reward remains favorable for positional traders. Trend remains bullish as long as price holds above ₹92.
NSE:IDBILong
by goldendays703
1
Big Cycle Big Move (HINDZINC)Friends, W. D. Gann theory involves many important concepts, such as the correction that occurs after a stock reaches its all-time high. If this correction is at least 50%, it can create a good buying zone. This pattern has been observed in many stocks before( Bharat Dynamics Ltd / Angel One Ltd etc), and today, we're looking at a chart where a correction of more than 50% has occurred. ATH 807 50% correction 807/2 = 403.50 When the stock starts moving up again, it typically tries to touch its previous all-time high, and after breaking through it, there's a chance of it going another 10-20% higher.. And to understand this kind of situation, looking at small time cycle won't work, you'll have to find the major highs and lows on the chart. Here, a 144-trading day cycle has been used. Friends, nothing works 100% in the market, but there's always a possibility. You tell me, will it be able to retest its all-time high?
NSE:HINDZINCLong
by askbiswanath2025
1
Nifty - Weekly review Dec 15 to Dec 19The price is consolidating and testing the psychological level of 26k. Both bulls and bears are trying to take hold of it. Buy above 26040 with the stop loss of 25980 for the targets 26080, 26120, 26180, 26240, 26280 and 26340. Sell below 25900 with the stop loss of 25950 for the targets 25860, 25820, 25760, 25700, 25660 and 25600. As per the daily chart, the price has closed above the trend line, and it should sustain above it to move up further. Always analyse before taking any trade.
NSE:NIFTY
by vanathi
NATIONALUM | Weekly Chart | Positional ViewOn the weekly timeframe, NATIONALUM is showing a clear trend reversal structure after a prolonged corrective phase. The price has formed a rounded bottom pattern, indicating gradual accumulation and a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Such structures generally reflect smart money participation rather than short-term speculative moves. The highlighted zone around ₹245–₹250 acted as a strong resistance in the past. Price has now broken above this level with strong weekly candles and increased volume, confirming a valid breakout. This zone is expected to act as a major support on any pullback. Post breakout, the stock is maintaining higher highs and higher lows, which confirms the start of a medium-term uptrend. The price structure suggests healthy continuation with intermediate consolidations rather than a vertical move. Based on the pattern height projection, the stock has the potential to move towards the ₹340–₹350 zone over the medium to long term, provided the broader market remains supportive. Invalidation / Risk Management: The bullish structure remains intact as long as price holds above ₹240–₹245 on a weekly closing basis. A weekly close below this zone may weaken the setup. Additional observation: Strong ROCE & ROE, healthy margins, improving EPS, reasonable dividend yield, and low debt provide fundamental comfort to the technical breakout. Disclaimer: This view is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Please do your own analysis before taking any trade.
NSE:NATIONALUMLong
by PowerOfTA
XAUUSD H4 Medium Term Rising Channel and Key Liquidity ZonesXAUUSD H4 – Medium-Term Rising Channel and Key Liquidity Zones Gold reacted sharply after touching the trendline, with the primary focus next week on buying pullbacks in line with the dominant trend PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN STRATEGY Trend-following buy strategy on a corrective move into key support and liquidity areas Primary buy zone: 4175 – 4203 Technical context: this area represents a previously validated support zone and a clear pool of downside liquidity Price expectation: a corrective dip into support, absorption of selling pressure, followed by a potential rebound back toward the upper balance area Position management: If price shows a strong reaction and H4 candles hold above the support zone, maintaining a swing-long bias remains favoured. If price breaks decisively below support, risk should be reduced and deeper levels monitored. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY STRATEGY Deeper pullback buy opportunity near the lower trendline of the rising channel Alternative buy zone: near the lower boundary of the rising channel, aligned with long-term liquidity Technical context: this area acts as the last line of defence for the medium-term bullish structure and is suitable for longer-term positioning Price expectation: a deeper liquidity sweep followed by recovery, reaffirming the rising channel KEY TECHNICAL POINTS On the H4 timeframe, price continues to trade within a rising channel. The sharp 100-point drop after touching the upper trendline highlights profit-taking pressure at higher levels The 4175 area and the lower channel trendline remain the most important liquidity zones for trend-aligned buying Upper resistance and the FVG-liquidity zone are better suited for trade management rather than aggressive new longs MACRO AND MARKET CONTEXT Markets are reacting to growing expectations of a potential shift in future Federal Reserve leadership and policy direction. The probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair has increased, alongside comments indicating a preference for significantly lower interest rates. Such expectations may remain supportive for gold in the medium term, although short-term technical corrections should still be respected after strong upside moves. RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING Avoid chasing price near the upper boundary of the rising channel. Any sell positions should be treated as short-term countertrend trades and only considered with clear rejection signals. The bullish scenario weakens if price breaks and fails to reclaim the rising channel structure. Remain alert to volatility around policy-related headlines and key economic data, as liquidity sweeps are likely.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
BTC/USD 1 Day Time Frame Live intraday BTC/USD price (1‑day timeframe): ~$90,368 USD (with a high near ~$92,705 and low near ~$89,560 today) — updated in real‑time. Real‑time exchange aggregator sites also show similar live ranges: • BTC ranges roughly $89,500 – $92,700 (24h low/high) on major exchanges. • Live price data from CoinMarketCap & CoinGecko shows ~$90,100 – $92,300 in recent pricing. 📊 Daily (1D) Key Levels — BTC/USD Support Levels (bullish buffers where price may bounce): S1: ~$90,200 – $90,300 — near current trading zone and pivot support. S2: ~$87,600 – $88,000 — secondary support zone from recent range structure. S3: ~$85,500 – $86,000 — stronger support if sellers push deeper. Resistance Levels (sell pressure zones / breakout targets): R1: ~$94,800 – $95,000 — first upside resistance from pivot targets. R2: ~$97,000 – $97,500 — medium‑term resistance from recent range highs. Psychological / higher area: ~$100,000 round number. Traders watch this as a big breakout level if BTC climbs above R2. (Observed market behavior) 📈 Daily Price Range (Current 24h) Approximate intraday price band: Low: ~$89,500 High: ~$92,700 This defines today’s 1‑day candle range — useful for intraday support/resistance decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Knowledgehub
Inflation Nightmare Continues1. Understanding the Inflation Nightmare Inflation refers to a sustained rise in the general price level of goods and services, reducing the purchasing power of money. When inflation remains high for a prolonged period and becomes difficult to control, it turns into an “inflation nightmare.” This nightmare is characterized by persistent cost pressures, declining real incomes, policy dilemmas, and economic uncertainty. In many economies, inflation has stopped being a short-term shock and has become a structural problem, affecting households, businesses, and governments alike. 2. Persistent Rise in Cost of Living One of the most visible effects of continuing inflation is the relentless rise in the cost of living. Prices of essential items such as food, fuel, housing, healthcare, and education continue to increase faster than income growth. Middle-class and lower-income households suffer the most, as a larger portion of their earnings goes toward necessities. Even salaried individuals with stable jobs find it increasingly difficult to maintain their previous standard of living. 3. Erosion of Purchasing Power High inflation steadily erodes purchasing power. Money saved today buys fewer goods and services tomorrow. Fixed-income groups such as pensioners, retirees, and low-wage workers are hit hardest because their incomes do not adjust quickly to rising prices. Over time, this erosion discourages savings and pushes people toward risky investments just to preserve wealth. 4. Food Inflation and Supply-Side Pressures Food inflation plays a central role in prolonging the inflation nightmare. Factors such as climate change, erratic monsoons, droughts, floods, rising fertilizer costs, and supply chain disruptions push food prices higher. Since food constitutes a significant share of household expenditure, especially in developing economies, even moderate food inflation causes severe social and political stress. 5. Energy Prices and Fuel Shock Energy prices remain a major driver of inflation. Rising crude oil, natural gas, and electricity costs increase transportation, manufacturing, and logistics expenses. These higher input costs are passed on to consumers, creating second-round inflation effects. Fuel inflation also affects public transport fares and freight costs, amplifying price pressures across the economy. 6. Global Factors Fueling Inflation The inflation nightmare is not limited to one country; it is global in nature. Geopolitical conflicts, trade disruptions, sanctions, and de-globalization trends have increased the cost of imports and reduced supply efficiency. Currency depreciation in emerging markets further worsens inflation by making imported goods more expensive, particularly energy and technology-related products. 7. Wage-Price Spiral Risk As inflation persists, workers demand higher wages to cope with rising living costs. While wage hikes are necessary for survival, they can lead to a wage-price spiral. Businesses facing higher wage bills raise product prices, which in turn triggers fresh wage demands. This self-reinforcing cycle makes inflation harder to control and prolongs the nightmare. 8. Impact on Businesses and Profit Margins Businesses face rising input costs, higher borrowing rates, and uncertain demand. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable because they have limited pricing power and thinner margins. Many companies are forced to either reduce output, compromise on quality, or pass costs onto consumers, further fueling inflationary pressures. 9. Central Bank Policy Dilemma Central banks play a critical role in fighting inflation, but persistent inflation puts them in a policy dilemma. Raising interest rates helps control inflation but slows economic growth, increases unemployment, and raises borrowing costs. Keeping rates low supports growth but risks allowing inflation to spiral out of control. This delicate balance makes policy decisions more complex and politically sensitive. 10. High Interest Rates and Borrowing Stress To curb inflation, central banks often increase interest rates. While this helps cool demand, it also raises EMIs on home loans, personal loans, and business credit. Households delay spending, and companies postpone expansion plans. High interest rates can eventually lead to economic slowdown or even recession, deepening public anxiety. 11. Government Fiscal Challenges Inflation increases government expenditure on subsidies, welfare schemes, and interest payments on debt. At the same time, governments face pressure to reduce taxes or provide relief to citizens. Balancing fiscal discipline with social support becomes increasingly difficult, especially for developing economies with limited resources. 12. Rising Inequality Persistent inflation worsens income and wealth inequality. Wealthier individuals often hold assets like real estate, equities, or commodities that appreciate with inflation, while poorer households rely on cash incomes and savings that lose value. As a result, the gap between rich and poor widens, leading to social tension and dissatisfaction. 13. Decline in Consumer Confidence When inflation remains high, consumer confidence weakens. People become cautious, postpone discretionary spending, and focus only on essentials. Reduced consumption affects business revenues, slows economic growth, and increases the risk of stagflation—a situation where high inflation coexists with low growth. 14. Impact on Financial Markets Inflation uncertainty creates volatility in financial markets. Equity markets struggle as higher interest rates reduce corporate earnings valuations. Bond prices fall as yields rise. Investors constantly rebalance portfolios to hedge against inflation, often favoring commodities, gold, or inflation-protected assets, which further shifts capital flows. 15. Long-Term Economic Damage If the inflation nightmare continues unchecked, it can cause long-term economic damage. Investment slows, productivity growth weakens, and innovation suffers. Economic planning becomes difficult for both households and businesses, reducing overall efficiency and confidence in the system. 16. Psychological and Social Stress Beyond economics, inflation creates psychological stress. Constant worry about rising expenses affects mental health, family stability, and social harmony. Public frustration often manifests in protests, political pressure, and demands for policy changes, increasing social instability. 17. The Road Ahead Ending the inflation nightmare requires coordinated efforts. Structural reforms, supply-side improvements, stable monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and global cooperation are essential. Short-term relief measures must be balanced with long-term solutions to ensure sustainable price stability without sacrificing growth. 18. Conclusion The continuation of the inflation nightmare is one of the most pressing challenges facing modern economies. It affects every layer of society—from households and businesses to governments and financial markets. Persistent inflation erodes purchasing power, fuels inequality, distorts investment decisions, and creates policy dilemmas. Addressing it requires patience, credibility, and well-coordinated economic strategies. Until inflation is firmly under control, the nightmare remains far from over.
NSE:ICICIBANKEducation
by TechnicalExpress
XAUUSD Wave 5 Completed, Entering an ABC Correction CycleXAUUSD – Wave 5 Completed, Entering an ABC Correction Cycle Weekly Plan Summary Gold has completed Wave 5 with a very strong impulsive move and is now entering an ABC corrective phase to complete the Elliott Wave structure. For the coming week, the primary strategy is to look for SELL opportunities at the Fibonacci resistance zone 4316–4320, followed by BUY reactions at the major liquidity area around 4215. 1) Elliott Wave – Why the Market Is Likely Entering an ABC Phase The recent rally shows clear end-of-Wave-5 characteristics: strong momentum, long candle bodies, followed by a sharp downside reaction (profit-taking and liquidity withdrawal). Once Wave 5 is completed, the market typically transitions into an ABC correction to rebalance supply and demand and complete a full Elliott Wave cycle. ABC Structure Based on the Provided Chart A-leg: Price drops into the 4259–4262 zone (the first reaction area of the correction). B-leg: Price retraces back towards 4316–4320 (the Fibonacci SELL zone on the chart). C-leg: Price continues lower towards 4215 (POC + major liquidity cluster formed late last week) — this is the primary target of the correction. 2) Key Price Levels Sell Zone (B-leg): 4316 – 4320 (Fibonacci resistance) Near Support (A-leg reaction): 4259 – 4262 Mid Support: 4238 – 4241 Main Target / Liquidity Area: 4215 (POC + major liquidity cluster) Scenario Invalidation Level: 4191 If price breaks below this level, the structure will need to be reassessed. 3) Trading Scenarios for the Coming Week Scenario 1 (Preferred): SELL at the End of the B-leg Sell: 4316 – 4320 SL: 4326 (a clear break above the sell zone) TP1: 4262 TP2: 4240 TP3: 4215 Logic: The B-leg is usually just a corrective pullback within the broader ABC structure. Selling at the Fibonacci resistance provides a better risk-to-reward ratio than chasing shorts in the middle of the range. Scenario 2: BUY Reaction at the End of the C-leg Buy: Around 4215 (preferably with a clear reaction) SL: 4191 TP1: 4240 TP2: 4262 TP3: 4290 – 4310 (if structure reverses and the uptrend resumes) Logic: 4215 is both the POC and a major liquidity zone, often acting as a “magnet” to complete the C-leg before the market forms a new cycle. Alternative Scenario: If Price Breaks and Holds Above 4320 If price breaks above 4320 and closes clearly on H1 above this level, the ABC correction may be delayed, and gold could extend higher towards the next resistance zone. In this case: Do not stubbornly hold SELL positions. Shift mindset to waiting for pullbacks to BUY in line with the trend. 4) Fundamental Context – Volatility May Increase, Supporting a Correction Phase Philadelphia Fed Governor Anna Paulson stated that interest rate cuts have “removed some of the insurance” against risks in the labour market. She also emphasised that the labour market is under pressure but has not yet broken. This keeps the Fed in a cautious stance, a backdrop in which gold often experiences sharp liquidity sweeps before aligning with its technical structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
ROLEXRINGS: Trendline BO & IPO Base Bounce, Chart of the WeekFrom IPO Highs to back to IPO Base: Can Rolex Rings Break the Downtrend After 64% Crash? After Promoter Buying and Decent Mangment Commentary Post Q2 FY26 Amid US Tariff, Let's Decode in This Week's "Chart of the Week" As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. Price Action: - The stock has witnessed a severe downtrend from its peak of approximately ₹280 in mid-2024 to a low of ₹99.48, representing a decline of approximately 64% from peak levels - The chart displays a classic bearish trend characterized by lower highs and lower lows throughout 2024 and into 2025 - Price action shows the stock trading near its 52-week lows, with current price around ₹111 after bouncing from the ₹99.48 IPO Base Trendline Analysis: - A descending trendline has been drawn connecting the highs from mid-2024 through late 2025 - This trendline has acted as strong dynamic resistance, rejecting price advances multiple times - The trendline currently extends downward toward the ₹100-110 zone, suggesting continued bearish momentum unless broken decisively - The stock broke this trendline with good volumes recently, as evidenced by the spike in volume to 76.29M from an average of 6.23M. Volume Spread Analysis: - Average volume: 6.23M shares - Recent surge: 76.29M shares (more than 12x average) - Volume spike coincides with the trendline breakout attempt and bounce from lows - This extraordinary volume surge suggests significant institutional or promoter buying interest - Volume pattern shows accumulation at lower levels, which is a positive sign - Higher volumes during bounce from support indicate strong conviction in buyers Base Formation & Support Levels: Key Support Zones: - Primary Support (IPO Base): ₹98-120 zone - This was the IPO issue price and has historical significance as a psychological support level - Immediate Support: ₹99.48 - The recent low established, which acted as a strong bounce point - Secondary Support: ₹100 - Round number psychological support - A potential base formation is emerging in the ₹99-120 range after months of decline Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: ₹130-140 zone (previous support turned resistance) - Intermediate Resistance: ₹160-170 (multiple rejections in this zone during the downtrend) - Major Resistance: ₹180-200 zone (previous consolidation area) - The descending trendline acts as dynamic resistance currently around ₹150-160 - Ultimate Resistance: ₹240-280 zone (peak highs from 2024) Technical Patterns: Descending Channel: - The stock has been trading within a well-defined descending channel since mid-2024 - Lower boundary of channel approximately at ₹100, upper boundary following the drawn trendline - Recent price action suggests potential channel breakout attempt Double Bottom Formation (Potential): - The chart shows a potential double bottom pattern forming around the ₹100 level - First bottom at ₹99.48 (recent low) - Second bottom would need to be confirmed near similar levels with higher low - Neckline resistance would be around ₹140-150 zone - This pattern, if confirmed, could signal trend reversal Falling Wedge (Forming): - The narrowing range between descending trendline and support suggests a falling wedge pattern - Falling wedges are typically bullish reversal patterns - Breakout above the trendline with volume could trigger significant upside My Key Technical Observations: - The stock has been in a sustained downtrend for approximately 18 months - Recent price action shows signs of exhaustion at lower levels - Trendline break with massive volume is a significant development - The stock is oversold and due for a technical bounce - Risk-reward ratio favors long positions from current levels with stop loss below ₹99 My Technical Outlook: Bullish Case: - Trendline breakout with exceptional volume - Support holding at IPO base (₹118) and recent low (₹99.48) - Potential reversal patterns forming - Oversold conditions on longer timeframes - Smart money accumulation evident from volume analysis Bearish Case: - Long-term downtrend still intact until sustained breakout - Multiple resistance levels overhead - Weak fundamental performance in recent quarters - Sectoral headwinds persist Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop: Company Overview: NSE:ROLEXRINGS , headquartered in Rajkot, Gujarat, is among India's leading manufacturers of forged and machined bearing rings and automotive components in the private sector. The company boasts a forging capacity of 144,750 metric tons per annum (MTPA) and an annual machining capacity of 73 million pieces. It serves clients across India and 15 international markets spanning North America, Europe, and Africa. Product Portfolio: - Bearing Rings (approximately 45-47% of revenue): Ball bearing rings, cylindrical, tapered, and spherical types for automotive, railways, industrial, and wind turbine applications - Automotive Components (approximately 53-55% of revenue): Transmission components (gear blanks, ring gears, sun and pinion, shafts), engine components (pulleys, cam lobes), chassis components (wheel hubs, Gen2 and Gen3 bearing components, output shafts, CVJ components), and exhaust system components Sector Analysis: Auto Components Industry: Industry Challenges (2025): The auto components sector has faced significant headwinds through 2025, with demand moderation across passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and two-wheelers impacting component manufacturers. The sector is experiencing increased competitive intensity, with OEMs exerting pressure on suppliers to reduce costs while simultaneously demanding higher quality standards and faster delivery cycles. Growth Drivers: - Domestic automobile demand remains relatively robust - Electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid segment growth (company derives 8% of FY25 revenue from this segment) - China+1 strategy benefiting Indian manufacturers - Localization push by global OEMs Financial Performance Analysis: Recent Performance (Q2 FY26): Rolex Rings reported net sales of ₹271.38 crores in Q2 FY26, marking a 6.93% sequential decline from ₹291.58 crores in Q1 FY26 and a 9.62% year-on-year drop from ₹300.27 crores in Q2 FY25. Net profit declined 9.94% quarter-on-quarter to ₹44.34 crores from ₹49.16 crores in Q1 FY26. Margin Pressure: Operating margins (excluding other income) have declined from a peak of 22.89% in June 2024 to 20.21% in September 2025, a contraction of 268 basis points over five quarters. This margin compression reflects pricing pressures and unfavorable product mix shifts. Profitability Metrics: - PE Ratio: 19.97 - PB Ratio: 3.24 - ROE: 17.48% (latest quarter, down from historical average of 22.12%) - ROCE: 26.44% Key Fundamental Challenges: US Tariff Impact: While the company had previously guided for 14-16% top-line growth for FY26, management has now moderated this to "early teen growth" if US tariffs persist, with higher growth expected in FY27. The company notes that US customer-related volumes have slowed considerably until there is clarity on the final trade deal. However, there's a 25% US custom duty waiver in major portion of exports to US, effective from November 1, 2025. Export-Domestic Mix: - Exports: 51-52% of revenue - Domestic: 48-49% of revenue - Bearing rings export business facing subdued global demand, particularly in industrial segment - Auto components export business showing resilience, especially in Europe and Mexico Positive Developments: Strong Order Book: The company has Rs 1.75 billion of order inflows expected to flow from Q2FY26, which can be ramped up to Rs 2.5 billion in FY27. The management expects 15% blended growth for FY26 and 10% growth guidance for FY27. Operational Excellence: The significant EBITDA margin expansion in Q1FY26 to 26.5%, up from 21.9% in Q4FY25, demonstrates management's strong grip on cost control and operational efficiencies. The company has successfully commissioned a 9MW solar plant (expected to be operational by December 2025), adding to existing 17.08MW capacity, which aids margin improvement. Balance Sheet Strength: The company has transitioned to a net cash position from previous debt levels, demonstrating strong cash management. For FY26, management has guided a much lower capital expenditure of ₹30-35 crore, which can easily be funded by internal accruals. Strategic Positioning: Market Position: Rolex Rings ranks top 5 amongst 130 active competitors in the forging and machining space. The company is benefiting from the China+1 theme, receiving improved traction from the US and Europe as an alternative to Chinese suppliers. Customer Diversification: The company is actively diversifying its customer base and expanding into value-added products for EVs/Hybrids which require complex machining and fetch approximately 200 basis points higher margins over standard offerings. Strengths: - Strong domestic market presence - Diversified product portfolio across bearing rings and auto components - Healthy order book visibility for FY26-27 - Improved operational efficiency and margin trajectory (when excluding tariff headwinds) - Net cash position providing financial flexibility - Competitive positioning in forging capacity Risks: - Export market volatility due to global trade tensions and tariffs - Sustained margin pressure from OEM cost reduction demands - Subdued growth in commercial vehicle and industrial segments - High dependence on automotive sector cyclicality - Revenue degrowth trend in recent quarters Valuation Perspective: At current levels around ₹111, the stock trades significantly below its historical highs and near book value. While near-term challenges persist, the long-term structural growth story of India's automotive sector, coupled with the company's strong market position and improving operational metrics, presents a compelling risk-reward opportunity for patient investors. Management Outlook: The company anticipates recovery in bearing rings business by Q3-Q4 FY26 and expects full recovery in export markets to take four to six quarters. The management remains confident about achieving EBITDA margins of 23.5-24% in FY26 and over 24% in FY27, supported by improved operational leverage, product mix enhancement, and benefits from renewable energy investments. Full Coverage on my Newsletter this Week Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:ROLEXRINGSLong
by Karanshah137
3
NIFTY at a Pause: Consolidation Shapes the Near-Term TrendIndian equity markets ended the week on a slightly softer note, with the benchmark NIFTY slipping 0.53% on a weekly basis. While a supportive rate cut by the US Federal Reserve helped improve global sentiment and led to two consecutive sessions of gains, the broader trend remains mixed. Adding to this, India VIX dropped 2.01% to 10.11, suggesting calm market conditions. ◉ Technical Setup: Key Pattern in Focus On the daily chart, NIFTY is forming a rising wedge pattern and has recently bounced from its trendline support. ● Typically, a rising wedge reflects bearish undertones, especially near maturity. ● However, if the index manages to break above the upper resistance line and sustain, it could invalidate the bearish setup and shift sentiment positively. ● On the flip side, a decisive breakdown below support may open the door for a meaningful correction in the coming sessions. ◉ Important Levels to Watch Based on open interest data, two critical zones are emerging as key for the current monthly expiry: ● Strong Support: 25,900 – 26,000 ● Strong Resistance: 26,400 – 26,500 With no major triggers visible in the near term, NIFTY is likely to remain range-bound, consolidating between these levels. ◉ Strategy: Trade Smart, Stay Selective Traders should maintain a moderately cautious stance in the current setup. ● Book or protect profits near higher levels. ● Avoid aggressive long positions until a clear breakout above 26,400–26,500 is confirmed. ● Prefer a stock-specific approach, focusing on names showing relative strength, while keeping risk management front and center.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
MRPL AnalysisTHIS IS MY CHART OF THE WEEK PICK FOR LEARNING PURPOSE MRPL- The current price of MRPL is 148.95 rupees I am going to buy this stock because of the reasons as follows- 1. It's retesting the zone which acted as a great resistance in 2007 as well as 2017. So it's a quite old level of interest and now, that zone can act as good support. 2. It got a good buying force in 2023-2024 and went up by almost 450+% and then went into correction. In last few weeks, it has moved up by 50% and then went into small correction. 3. It is showing better relative strength as it stood strong in volatile times including last few weeks. 4. The risk and reward is favourable. 5. The stock has very small free float which is better for some good move. Promoters have got some great holding (mostly government backed) 6. Another good part- The overall sector has shown some decent strength and have good momentum. I am expecting more from this in coming weeks. I will buy it with minimum target of 35-40% and then will trail after that. My SL is at 127.45 rupees. I will be managing my risk.
NSE:MRPLLong
by Its_Bhushan
Eicher Motors Near the Edge: Wedge TightensEicher Motors has seen a strong advance in recent months, but the current price structure suggests the move may be losing momentum . Price is forming a rising wedge with higher highs and higher lows, where the lower trendline is rising faster than the upper one — a classic sign of compression and weakening upside strength . Despite price holding near recent highs, the advance has become increasingly overlapping, indicating buyer fatigue rather than fresh accumulation. Such behavior is typical of late-stage trends , where upside progress slows even as prices drift higher. No reversal has occurred yet. The structure remains intact until price delivers confirmation. A decisive daily close below the rising wedge support would signal a bearish resolution, while sustained acceptance above the wedge resistance would invalidate the setup. For now, this remains a watch-and-wait structure , with risk skewed toward a downside resolution if support gives way. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:EICHERMOTShort
by WaveXplorer
Seeing vs Believing: Multi-Pattern Structure vs Single-Line BOOn the left, the weekly chart is mapped as a full A+ type setup, where multiple structural elements work together instead of relying on a single, convenient line. -A red counter trendline marks a series of lower-high rejection points, visually defining the “least liquidity” supply line that price has repeatedly respected. -A dotted parallel channel outlines a broader multi-pattern context. -A dashed hidden line adds another layer of structure, hinting at less obvious inflection zones that are not visible at first glance but often align with prior reactions. -Finally, an orange line represents a higher time frame resistance level, bringing in a top-down perspective so that the current weekly price action is seen in relation to a dominant, bigger-picture barrier. On the right, by contrast, the chart is reduced to a single white line drawn in a way that “forces” the candles to appear as if they are breaking out. This is a great example of chart psychology in action: instead of objectively mapping all relevant patterns, many traders draw what they want to see—one clean breakout line—ignoring hidden structures, multi-timeframe confluence, and complex pattern overlap. The intention of this post is purely observational and educational, not forecasting. It aims to show how a professional, multi-pattern approach (CT lines, channels, hidden lines, and higher timeframe levels) can radically change the way a chart is interpreted compared to the simplistic, single-line breakout mindset that dominates retail thinking. Disclaimer: This post is for educational and illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a registered financial professional before making any trading decisions.
NSE:CENTURYPLYLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – Week 3 of December 2025 1. Momentum Weekly (W1): Weekly momentum is approaching the overbought zone. There is a high probability that in the coming week, W1 momentum will enter the overbought area and start showing signs of a bearish reversal. Daily (D1): D1 momentum is currently in the overbought zone and preparing to turn down. We need confirmation from a clear bearish D1 candle. Once confirmed, the market is likely to enter a corrective move lasting approximately 4–5 days. H4: H4 momentum has already turned bearish. However, it still needs around 2–3 more H4 candles to reach the oversold zone, indicating that short-term downside momentum remains intact. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Weekly Timeframe (W1) On the weekly chart, wave X (purple) appears to be in its final phase. Price is currently trading near the base of wave W, suggesting a high probability that this structure is forming a flat correction. Key characteristics of a flat pattern: - Price can retrace back to the origin of wave W. - It may even exceed the W low/high and create a marginal new extreme. - However, this breakout is typically limited before price reverses to complete wave Y. In the current context, weekly momentum has not yet confirmed a bearish reversal. Therefore, the possibility of one final upward push in wave X cannot be ruled out before a larger decline begins. Daily Timeframe (D1) On the daily chart, wave X (purple) is developing as an ABC structure. At present: - The red wave C has already completed a 5-wave internal structure. - Price is now trading within the green wave 5 of wave C. With D1 momentum already in the overbought zone, there is a high probability that green wave 5 is nearing completion. Once this wave ends, price is expected to decline to form wave Y. However, an important caution remains: - D1 momentum has not yet confirmed a bearish reversal. - Therefore, attempting to catch the exact top of wave X carries risk. - As discussed on the weekly timeframe, flat corrections can allow price to equal or slightly exceed the wave W level before reversing. H4 Timeframe Looking more closely at the H4 structure: - The 5-wave sequence (1–2–3–4–5 in green) within the red wave C has completed. - Wave 5 reached its projected target near 4334, after which price started to decline sharply. H4 momentum still requires 2–3 candles to reach oversold conditions, suggesting: - The current bearish leg still has room to extend. - The most probable scenario is a continuation lower toward the POC zone (green line) around 4215 – 4187, followed by a corrective bounce. If this scenario unfolds: - The current decline is likely forming wave 1 down of a new 5-wave structure for wave Y. - The subsequent recovery would be wave 2, typically unfolding as an ABC corrective move. - This wave 2 rally would provide a high-probability sell opportunity, especially if H4 momentum rebounds into the overbought zone again. 3. Key Notes & Risk Awareness One critical point to emphasize: - Weekly momentum is preparing to enter the overbought zone and potentially reverse. - Daily momentum is already overbought. - This momentum confluence suggests that the coming decline could be more extended, aiming to push weekly momentum back toward oversold conditions. In practice, weekly momentum often requires multiple oscillations (commonly around three reversals) to complete a full corrective cycle. Therefore: - Patience is essential during this phase. - Avoid prematurely adopting a long-term bullish bias. - Always wait for price action confirmation. This analysis represents a directional warning and scenario planning only. All expectations must be confirmed by real-time price behavior. 4. Conclusion For the upcoming week, the primary bias favors a bearish corrective phase. Detailed trading plans (entries, stop loss, and targets) will be updated daily as new price data becomes available.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD H4 Lana Weekly AnalysisXAUUSD (H4) – Lana’s Weekly Outlook: Waiting for pullbacks to Fib 0.618 & 0.50 within major liquidity zones 💛 Higher-Timeframe Trend (D1) Gold is revisiting the previous all-time high (ATH), but volume strength has not yet been convincing enough to confirm a strong breakout. Primary Tracking Timeframe Timeframe: H4 Method: Fibonacci + trendline + liquidity zones + support/resistance Plan: Lana avoids chasing price and prefers to BUY at discounted areas around Fib 0.618 and 0.50. Market Context for the Coming Week US Treasury yields, especially on the long end, remain elevated, increasing short-term volatility in gold. Fed commentary continues to signal a cautious stance, while political uncertainty in the US may make gold flows more unpredictable. As a result, Lana prioritises trading clearly defined price zones rather than trying to predict every short-term swing. H4 Technical View (Medium Term) Gold’s current trading range is relatively wide. After a strong impulsive move, the market often needs a “cooling-off” phase to rebalance liquidity. On H4, the two most important zones align between Fibonacci retracement levels and major liquidity areas, making them ideal zones to wait for pullbacks before continuing with the trend. Key Price Zones Lana Is Watching 1) Buy Zone 1 – Fib 0.618 (Preferred) Entry: 4216 – 4220 SL: 4210 This is a high-quality Fibonacci discount zone and an area where strong price reactions are likely if larger flows step in to support the trend. 2) Buy Zone 2 – Fib 0.50 + Strong Support (Deeper Buy) Entry: 4171 – 4175 SL: 4165 This scenario plays out if price sweeps deeper liquidity before rebounding. Lana considers this a safer entry in terms of location, but it requires patience. Trading Scenarios for the New Week Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY on Pullbacks Lana prefers to wait for price to retrace into 4216–4220, or deeper into 4171–4175, before entering trades. If price reacts positively, upside targets will focus on rebounds towards higher resistance zones and the nearest recent highs. Secondary Scenario – If Price Remains Elevated If price stays in premium territory with strong volatility, Lana does not recommend late entries. Instead, the focus is on observing price reactions and waiting for pullbacks into the predefined zones for cleaner, lower-risk execution. Lana’s Notes 🌿 Every setup represents a probability, not a certainty. Stop loss is always predefined, and position sizing should be moderate to withstand gold’s wide volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Minda Corp: Structure Over PredictionMinda Corp has spent a long time facing rejections at higher levels, which is clearly visible on the left side of the chart. Those rallies failed because price could not sustain above structure. The recent phase shows a change in behaviour. Instead of sharp rejections, price is now holding above key support and compressing inside a rising structure. This kind of tightening usually reflects indecision before expansion. At this stage, the chart is not about prediction or targets. It is about waiting for price to confirm direction. A clean breakout and hold above the structure would signal continuation, while failure to hold support would invalidate the setup. This study focuses on how price reacts at important levels, not on guessing future moves. What separates my approach from others is that I don’t chase moves — I wait for price behaviour to confirm them.
NSE:MINDACORP
by siripireddyvenu
$BTC: Technical Breakdown (High-Probability Bearish Setup)CRYPTOCAP:BTC : Technical Breakdown (High-Probability Bearish Setup) Market Structure Shift Bitcoin has Already lost $107000 major bullish support and is sustaining below it, confirming a bearish market phase. The Head & Shoulders distribution pattern is fully validated. Head & Shoulders Measurement As per classical H&S rules, the 162% extension target of the pattern has already been achieved on the downside, indicating: 🔹 Pattern completion 🔹 Cycle top likely formed 🔹 Transition from bull to bear phase Fibonacci Retracement (Macro Bear Framework) Measured from bear-market low → cycle top, Fibonacci levels project: 0.382 Fib: ~$56,700 0.5 Fib: ~$44,000 → key bear market acceptance zone 0.618 Fib: ~$35,000 → strongest macro support / worst-case scenario Current price action still reflects a healthy macro retracement, not capitulation. Liquidity & Imbalance Despite the bearish structure, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) remains unmitigated in the $98,000–$100,000 range. This level may act as a liquidity magnet before the next impulsive leg down. Bias & Scenarios Primary bias: Bearish Relief rally possibility: $98K–$100K (FVG fill) Next downside leg: $70K–$60K, then deeper Fib supports Conclusion With H&S 162% target completed and structure broken, BTC remains bearish by technical definition. Trade only with confirmation, manage risk, and respect all valid scenarios. NFa & DYOR
Short
by CryptoPatel