Nationalum - looks good this weeknationalum - national aluminium company limited
In Monday’s (13-feb-2023) session, the stock formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart which is pointing to a bounce against the current downtrend, at least for the time being. A counter-trend rally to 81.15 can be seen in this week, from the 78.90.
disclaimer: note this is just for education purpose to analyze the candle stick pattern, rsi and expected next levels as per fibonacci levels. this is not buy or sell call, any trading on this counter will be at your own risk.
Analysis
My precious-s-s-s EPSIn the previous post , we began looking at the Income statement that the company publishes for each quarter and year. The report contains important information about different types of profits : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, and net income. Net income can serve both as a source of further investment in the business and as a source of dividend payments to shareholders (of course, if a majority of shareholders vote to pay dividends).
Now let's break down the types of stock on which dividends can be paid. There are only two: preferred stock and common stock . We know from my earlier post that a stock gives you the right to vote at a general meeting of shareholders, the right to receive dividends if the majority voted for them, and the right to part of the bankrupt company's assets if something is left after paying all debts to creditors.
So, this is all about common stock. But sometimes a company, along with its common stock, also issues so-called preferred stock.
What advantages do they have over common stock?
- They give priority rights to receive dividends. That is, if shareholders have decided to pay dividends, the owners of preferred shares must receive dividends, but the owners of common shares may be deprived because of the same decision of the shareholders.
- The company may provide for a fixed amount of dividend on preferred shares. That is, if the decision was made to pay a dividend, preferred stockholders will receive the fixed dividend that the company established when it issued the shares.
- If the company goes bankrupt, the assets that remain after the debts are paid are distributed to the preferred shareholders first, and then to the common shareholders.
In exchange for these privileges, the owners of such shares do not have the right to vote at the general meeting of shareholders. It should be said that preferred shares are not often issued, but they do exist in some companies. The specific rights of shareholders of preferred shares are prescribed in the founding documents of the company.
Now back to the income statement. Earlier we looked at the concept of net income. Since most investments are made in common stock, it would be useful to know what net income would remain if dividends were paid on preferred stock (I remind you: this depends on the decision of the majority of common stockholders). To do this, the income statement has the following line item:
- Net income available to common stockholders (Net income available to common stockholders = Net income - Dividends on preferred stock)
When it is calculated, the amount of dividends on preferred stock is subtracted from net income. This is the profit that can be used to pay dividends on common stock. However, shareholders may decide not to pay dividends and use the profits to further develop and grow the company. If they do so, they are acting as true investors.
I recall the investing formula from my earlier post : give something now to get more in the future . And so it is here. Instead of deciding to spend profits on dividends now, shareholders may decide to invest profits in the business and get more dividends in the future.
Earnings per share or EPS is used to understand how much net income there is per share. EPS is calculated very simply. As you can guess, all you have to do is divide the net income for the common stock by its number:
- EPS ( Earnings per share = Net income for common stock / Number of common shares issued).
There is an even more accurate measure that I use in my analysis, which is EPS Diluted or Diluted earnings per share :
- EPS Diluted ( Diluted earnings per share = Net income for common stock / (Number of common shares issued + Issuer stock options, etc.)).
What does "diluted" earnings mean, and when does it occur?
For example, to incentivize management to work efficiently, company executives may be offered bonuses not in monetary terms, but in shares that the company will issue in the future. In such a case, the staff would be interested in the stock price increase and would put more effort into achieving profit growth. These additional issues are called Employee stock options (or ESO ). Because the amount of these stock bonuses is known in advance, we can calculate diluted earnings per share. To do so, we divide the profit not by the current number of common shares already issued, but by the current number plus possible additional issues. Thus, this indicator shows a more accurate earnings-per-share figure, taking into account all dilutive factors.
The value of EPS or EPS Diluted is so significant for investors that if it does not meet their expectations or, on the contrary, exceeds them, the market may experience significant fluctuations in the share price. Therefore, it is always important to keep an eye on the EPS value.
In TradingView the EPS indicator as well as its forecasted value can be seen by clicking on the E button next to the timeline.
We will continue to discuss this topic in the next publication. See you soon!
Banknifty Possible Trade for Friday Banknifty Support and Resistance For Day Trading 17 feb 2023
Support Zones
Frist Support Level For For Long Banknifty - 41645 -41690
Second Support Level For Long Banknifty - 41240 - 41280
Third Support Level For Long Banknifty - 40760 - 40800
Resistance Zones
First Resistance Level For Short Banknifty - 41920 -41970
Second Resistance Level For Short Banknifty - 42235 -42275
Third Resistance Level For Short Banknifty - 42675 -42700
Importent Signal for Banknifty Trading from Option Chain Data Analysis
Max Pain As per Option Chain Analysis – 41700
PCR ratio as per Option Chain Analysis – 0.76 ( Bullish )
Major Support as Per Banknifty Open Interest Analysis – 40800
Major Resistance as Per Banknifty Open Interest Analysis – 42300
Conclusion For Next Trading Days
Bankifty is given Bulish Move Rejected From Budget Day High , If closes above Budget Day High ,then you can go long with Stoploss of budget day High
Try To Buy Future Conract or Call Option Near Support Zone and Book Profit At Rsistance Zone
Try to Short Banknifty at every Resistaance and Book Profit Near Support Zone
Adani Group issue is major concern for market for now .
Stock Market Confirm News
Edelweiss Mutual Fund raises stake in Yes Bank shares in Jan 2023
Govt cuts windfall tax on crude oil, ATF, export of diesel
Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) stock of Indian Railways fell 2 per cent , It is a Finance Providing Company for Indian Rail .
intradayif price breaks the level then we can plan for long and if it is taking rejection from that level then we can plan for short.
both side potential
avoid first 15min breakout
wait for 15 min candle closing
targets are marked
if the breakout comes after 10:00 am then the probability of winning will be more.
follow risk management
do your own analysis
do workout
do meditation
start reading books
Smallcap Stock with great potential - MallcomA great proxy to India Capex Boom.
- Mental model = Consolidating Market share from unorganized market. Also, Import Substitution.
- Business Update:
GoI has upgraded their rating to 3 Star supplier.
-Technical:
Fall wedge pattern break out.
#Invested: Hence, Biased. Take your own call. :)
Falling wedge pattern breakout in SRFSRF
Key highlights: 💡⚡
✅On 1Hr Time Frame Stock Showing Breakout of falling wedge Pattern .
✅ Strong Bullsih Candlestick Form on this timeframe.
✅It can give movement up to the Breakout target of 2845+.
✅Can Go short in this stock by placing a stop loss below 2080-.
✅breakout this can give risk:reward upto 1:4+.
Falling wedge pattern breakout in TATACOMMTATACOMM
Key highlights: 💡⚡
✅On 1Hr Time Frame Stock Showing Breakout of falling wedge Pattern .
✅ Strong Bullsih Candlestick Form on this timeframe.
✅It can give movement up to the Breakout target of 1275+.
✅Can Go short in this stock by placing a stop loss below 1227-.
✅breakout this can give risk:reward upto 1:3+.
Inverted head and shoulder pattern in HAVELLSHAVELLS
Key highlights: 💡⚡
✅On 1D Time Frame Stock Showing Breakout of Inverted head and shoulder Pattern .
✅ Strong Bullsih Candlestick Form on this timeframe.
✅It can give movement up to the Breakout target of 1440+.
✅Can Go short in this stock by placing a stop loss below 1177-.
✅breakout this can give risk:reward upto 1:5+.
Symmetrical triangle pattern breakout in MFSLMFSL
Key highlights: 💡⚡
✅On 1Hr Time Frame Stock Showing Breakout of Symmetrical triangle Pattern .
✅ Strong Bullsih Candlestick Form on this timeframe.
✅It can give movement up to the Breakout target of 750+.
✅Can Go short in this stock by placing a stop loss below 712-.
✅breakout this can give risk:reward upto 1:5+.
NIFTY - a symmetrical triangle - 5 min.Nifty had formed a symmetrical triangle on 5 minutes time frame. If it breaks level of 17650 i.e breakdown of triangle can give us a 1st target of 17500 i.e 150 points and 2nd target of 17440. On the other side if breaks the level of 17800 i.e previous day high (PDH) can give us target of 17850 and 17970 levels.
Inverted head and shoulder pattern in APOLLOHOSP✅ APOLLOHOSP
Key highlights: 💡⚡
✅ On 1W Time Frame Stock Showing Reversal of Inverted head and shoulder Pattern.
✅ Strong Doji Candlestick Form on this timeframe.
✅It can give movement upto reversal target of 4830+.
✅ Can Go Short in this stock by placing stop loss Above 4120 or last swing Low.
✅ After breakout this can give risk:reward upto 1:2+.
Investment: BigBloc Construction - 6 monthsFundamental Pick:
Investment Horizon: 6 months
Target: 185-200
SL: 105
Logic :
Durability Score: 90 (out of 100)
Consistent Highest Return Stocks over Five Years - Nifty500
Company with high TTM EPS Growth
Effectively using its capital to generate profit - RoCE improving in last 2 years
Company with Zero Promoter Pledge
Double top pattern reversal in ICICIBANK.ICICIBANK
Key highlights: 💡
✅On 1Hr Time Frame Stock Showing Reversal of Double top Pattern .
✅ It can give movement upto the Reversal target of below 825-.
✅There have chances of breakdown of Support level too.
✅ After breakdown of Support level this stock can gives strong downside rally upto below 780-.
The income statement: the place where profit livesToday we are going to look at the second of the three main reports that a company publishes during the earnings season, the income statement. Just like the balance sheet, it is published every quarter and year. This is how we can find out how much a company earns and how much it spends. The difference between revenues and expenses is called profit . I would like to highlight this term "profit" again, because there is a very strong correlation between the dynamics of the stock price and the profitability of the company.
Let's take a look at the stock price charts of companies that are profitable and those that are unprofitable.
3 charts of unprofitable :
3 charts of profitable :
As we can see, stocks of unprofitable companies have a hard enough time growing, while profitable companies, on the contrary, are getting fundamental support to grow their stocks. We know from the previous post that a company's Equity grows due to Retained Earnings. And if Equity grows, so do Assets. Recall: Assets are equal to the sum of a company's Equity and Liabilities. Thus, growing Assets, like a winch attached to a strong tree, pull our machine (= stock price) higher and higher. This is, of course, a simplified example, but it still helps to realize that a company's financial performance directly affects its value.
Now let's look at how earnings are calculated in the income statement. The general principle is this: if we subtract all expenses from revenue, we get profit . Revenue is calculated quite simply - it is the sum of all goods and services sold over a period (a quarter or a year). But expenses are different, so in the income statement we will see one item called "Total revenue" and many items of expenses. These expenses are deducted from revenue gradually (top-down). That is, we don't add up all the expenses and then subtract the total expenses from the revenue - no. We deduct each expense item individually. So at each step of this subtraction, we get different kinds of profit : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, net income. So let's look at the report itself.
- Total revenue
This is, as we've already determined, the sum of all goods and services sold for the period. Or you could put it another way: this is all the money the company received from sales over a period of time. Let me say right off the bat that all of the numbers in this report are counted for a specific period. In the quarterly report, the period, respectively, is 1 quarter, and in the annual report, it is 1 year.
Remember my comparison of the balance sheet with the photo ? When we analyze the balance sheet, we see a photo (data snapshot) on the last day of the reporting period, but not so in the income statement. There we see the accumulated amounts for a specific period (i.e. from the beginning of the reporting quarter to the end of that quarter or from the beginning of the reporting year to the end of that year).
- Cost of goods sold
Since materials and other components are used to make products, accountants calculate the amount of costs directly related to the production of products and place them in this item. For example, the cost of raw materials for making shoes would fall into this item, but the cost of salaries for the accountant who works for that company would not. You could say that these costs are costs that are directly related to the quantity of goods produced.
- Gross profit (Gross profit = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold)
If we subtract the cost of goods sold from the total revenue, we get gross profit.
- Operating expenses (Operating expenses are costs that are not part of the cost of production)
Operating expenses include fixed costs that have little or no relation to the amount of output. These may include rental payments, staff salaries, office support costs, advertising costs, and so on.
- Operating income (Operating income = Gross profit - Operating expenses)
If we subtract operating expenses from gross profit, we get operating income. Or you can calculate it this way: Operating income = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold - Operating expenses.
- Non-operating income (this item includes all income and expenses that are not related to regular business operations)
It is interesting, that despite its name, non-operating income and operating income can have negative values. For this to happen, it is sufficient that the corresponding expenses exceed the income. This is a clear demonstration of how businessmen revere profit and income, but avoid the word "loss" in every possible way. Apparently, a negative operating income sounds better. Below is a look at two popular components of non-operating income.
- Interest expense
This is the interest the company pays on loans.
- Unusual income/expense
This item includes unusual income minus unusual expenses. "Unusual" means not repeated in the course of regular activities. Let's say you put up a statue of the company's founder - that's an unusual expense. And if it was already there, and it was sold, that's unusual income.
- Pretax income (Pretax income = Operating income + Non-operating income)
If we add or subtract (depending on whether it is negative or positive) non-operating income to operating income, we get pretax income.
- Income tax
Income tax reduces our profit by the tax rate.
- Net income (Net income = Pretax income - Income tax)
Here we get to the income from which expenses are no longer deducted. That is why it is called "net". It is the bottom line of any company's performance over a period. Net income can be positive or negative. If it's positive, it's good news for investors, because it can go either to pay dividends or to further develop the company and increase profits.
This concludes part one of my series of posts on the Income statement. In the next parts, we'll break down how net income is distributed to holders of different types of stock: preferred and common. See you soon!
At the beginning was the EquityWith this post, I am concluding the analysis of the company's balance sheet. You can read the previous parts here:
Part 1 - Balance sheet: taking the first steps
Part 2 - Assets I prioritize
Part 3 - A sense of debt
Now we know that every company has assets on one side of the balance sheet and liabilities and equity on the other side. If you add liabilities and equity together you get the sum of assets. And vice versa, if you subtract all of the company's liabilities from the assets, you get what? That's right, you get Equity . Let's discuss this important component of the balance sheet.
When a company is first established, it must have initial equity. This is the money with which any business starts. It is used for the first expenses of the new company. In the case of our workshop , the equity was the master's savings, with which he bought the garage, equipment, raw materials and other assets to start his business. As sales progressed, the workshop received the revenue and reimbursed expenses. Whatever was left over was used to boost the company's profit. So, our master invested his capital in the business to increase it through profits.
Making a profit is the main purpose for which the company's assets work, loans are raised, and equity is invested.
Let's see which balance sheet items are in the Equity group:
- Common stock (The sum of nominal values of common stock issued). Remember, when our master decided to turn his company into a stock company , he issued 1 million shares at a price of $1,000 per share. So $1,000 per share is the par value of the stock. And the sum of the nominal values of the stocks issued would be $1 billion.
- Retained earnings . It is clear from the name of this item that it contains profits that have not been distributed. We will find out where it can be allocated in the next post, when we start analyzing the income statement.
- Accumulated other comprehensive income (Profit or loss on open investments). The profit or loss of a company can be not only from its core business, but also, for example, from the rise or fall in the value of other companies' shares that it bought. In our example, the workshop has oil company shares. The financial result from the revaluation of these shares is recorded in this item.
So, the equity is necessary for the company to invest it in the business and make a profit. Then the retained earnings themselves become equity, which is reinvested to make even more profits. It's a continuous cycle of the company's life that bets on equity growth.
Which balance sheet items are of interest to me in the Equity group? Of course, I am interested in the profit-related items: retained earnings and profit or loss on open investments. The sum of nominal share values is a static indicator, so it can hardly tell us anything.
However, it is better to use information from the income statement rather than the balance sheet to analyze earnings, because only this report allows us to see the entire structure of a company's income and expenses.
So we conclude the general analysis of a company's balance sheet. To fully understand why it is needed, let's engage our imagination once again. Do you remember the example with the hotel ? We imagined that a joint stock company is a hotel with identical rooms, where you, as an investor, can buy a certain number of rooms (one room = one share). Think about what you would want to look at first before buying? Personally, I'd rather see photos of the rooms.
So, the balance sheet can be compared to such photos that we get from the hotel at quarterly and annual intervals. Of course, in such a case, the hotel will try to use special effects as much as possible in order to improve investors' impression of the photos released. However, if we track and compare photos over multiple periods, we can still understand: is our hotel evolving, or have we been watching the same couch in a standard room for 10 years in a row.
We can say that the balance sheet is a "photo" of the company's assets, debts and equity at the balance sheet date. And the balance sheet items I've chosen are what I look at first in this photo.
In the next series of posts, we will break down an equally important report, the income statement, and explore the essence of earnings. See you soon!