#banknifty"Good morning! As of August 16th, the global market sentiment is negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend is moderately bullish. The market might start with a gap-down. After that, if the market takes a pullback around the immediate support zone, we can expect a minimum 38% pullback. If it breaks the immediate support zone, then the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if the decline doesn't break yesterday's low, it might turn into a range-bound market."
Bankniftytrading
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 16/08/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 16-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Morning Mantra - 16th August 2023Dear All,
So once again we had witnessed the significance of 19300 level on Monday itself. As after making a low of around 19257 during the day, the Index ultimately gave us a positive closing of around 19434.
Well now we can observe a bullish reversal pattern, named as Hammer, on the Day chart setup of Nifty. So, we are now expecting a bounce back from the current levels. Whereafter, if Nifty takes a support at this level and manages to gives a positive closing of above 19550, then we will be in an aggressive buying mode.
Otherwise, until then, we will have to wait and watch for either a breakout of above 19550, or a breakdown below 19300 on closing basis.
In the meanwhile, it will be better to keep Rebalancing the Portfolio.
Besides, as per the chart of BankNifty, we can now observe the perfect formation of a Doji Pattern.
For which, just like we always say -
“A Doji Formation on the chart and a Fauji (soldier) on the Border is quite indicative of a safer zone for the Bulls”. So, as of now there’s a symbol of Reversal on the chart of BankNifty as well.
However, here again it will be better to wait for an either side movement, i.e., a breakout of above 44444 and a breakdown of below 43800 on closing basis.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Banknifty future chart analysis for 16.08.2023As you can see here price took nice rejection from Median Line , so it must go down but
here a little twist remains as you can see that bollinger bands are pretty
broad, so if price opens near same place where it left off then there is a
high chance that it will take support on bollinger bands standard deviation one
and may go in a sideways.
if price again goes below 44065, then you can again witness a burst and price will achieve all
targets downside.
in between 43862 is a strong support.
If price goes above 44356, then it may easily reach to the level of 44546, 44546
is a super strong resistance price may again go down to the level of 44205,
crossing above 44546 may push it towards 44725.
14 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Tests SR @ 44068 🐻🐻🐻Banknifty also made a decent recovery after the 482pts ~ 1.09% fall in the opening 20mts. It retraced 433pts by 15.00. And then fell a little to close out with only 0.2% losses @ 44090.
Even though the recovery was good, it was not as dramatic as Nifty50. And we are back at an important support/resistance level of 44068. So bank nifty has retested its old SR level before Nifty which still means the downtrend could continue a bit more. Earlier on I did mention in the last report that BankNifty is the leading indicator for trend in India vs NASDAQ in US.
Today’s close on the 1hr TF will give some proof for that. The final close is quite far away(below) the trend line and my 50 & 200 EMA is widening. The stance continues to be bearish with 44068 as the first SR and 43404 as the next SR.
Banknifty TradeSetup For 14-08-2023BankNifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows
Expectations: Trending Day
#Support: 44120
Sell below:44120 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 44020
Target 2: 44890
#Resistance: 44265
Buy Above: 44330- 44265 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level aggressive buy above supply zone. No fresh positions to be initiated in the supply zone before the price breaks on either side of the supply zone.
Target 1: 44412
Target 2: 44572
#Supply Zone: 44330- 44410 may act as a selling zone and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stop loss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
Banknifty future chart analysis for 14-08-2023As you can see here that bollinger bands are in squeeze mode, and price
after rejection from median line (Orange), taking support at standard deviation
two (Red), if price goes below standard deviation two , you may see a burst in
bollinger bands and price will go much lower side achieving all targets given
by me.
44624 is a strong resistance if price trying to retrace from here , go short for the target of
44341.
if price goes above 44624 then it may easily reach to the level of 44807, and may again retrace back to 44624,
crossing above 44807 may push it toward final target.
#BANKNIFTY ANALYSISTwo pattern coincidences on daily chart :-
First one head & shoulder breakdown, but I will wait for one more day for confirmation. ( This will happen after retest confirmation at 44520-44500 level).
Second pattern Cup & Handle pattern which is yet to breakdown & retest again at 44200 level.
Both pattern above gives target of 42650 level.
But yes I will wait for confirmation which we will get on Monday by 2nd half mostly.
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 14/08/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 14-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
11 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Top bear in overdriveBanks were just continuing the trend from yesterday. The first candle saw a swing of 247pts ~ 0.56%. From there they were holding it steady till 12.40.
Something interesting happened at the 13.00 candle which was a strong green of 128pts. HDFCBK, ICICI, SBIN, AXIS all were shooting up. What happened right after that was a super spike in RELIANCE (up 1.38% between 13.00 to 14.35). I assume the operators had to sell the banks to offset the points getting added by reliance.
We fell another 341pts between the 13.05 to 15.05 period further cementing the bearish trend.
I have fixed the trend line as per the ORANGE line shared yesterday as I felt it resonates better with the current situation. We have 2 sets of double tops & 1 set each of head-shoulder & inverse head-shoulder now. I wish to maintain full bearish stance until proven wrong.
Banknifty TradeSetup For 11-08-2023BankNifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows
Expectations: Trending Day
#Support: 44420
Sell below: 44420 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 44230
Target 2: 44050
#Resistance: 44605
Buy Above: 44605 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level agressive buy above supply zone.
Target 1: 44820
Target 2: 45050
#Supply Zone: 44600-44680 may act as a selling zone and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
10 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty RBI hikes CRR by 10%BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, banknifty has fallen 34pts ~ 0.08% (flattish). Compare this to Nifty which rose 0.8%. In our markets banks are the leading indicator, whereas in the US its the non-banks. That is why professionals look up to banknifty in India and Nasdaq in the US as leading indicators of trends.
BankNifty Today’s Analysis
We had a gap down opening and traded with no special punch till 10.00. The RBI Governor first announced the status quo on the repo rate of 6.5%. With the prices of food, groceries spiking, I think he made a bold move to keep the interest rate unchanged. This really excited the banks and we started to rally and took out the intraday high of yesterday.
The next 2 announcements tanked the markets, first he revised the inflation forecast for the current year to 5.4% (more pain to the poor). And then he announced a 10% hike in the cash reserve ratio that needs to be maintained by the banks (temporarily). Read the full minutes - click here.
The best way to control inflation is to reduce the liquidity in the markets, a higher CRR will do that - but is it more effective than increasing the repo rate only time will tell. The surprise announcement of withdrawal of Rs2000 notes would have added more liquidity into the system and most of these funds would have found their way into the financial markets (equity or debt). Banks may have to reassess their cash levels to maintain this additional 10% cash with RBI. It will be prudent to hear from HDFCBK, ICICIBK and SBIN on the impact (maybe we can expect a news/event in 1 week).
If you look at the 5mts chart, the fall of 499pts ~ 1.11% stands out. What is more dramatic is the low point went below yesterday’s swing-low unlike Nifty50. And the further price action was negative unlike flattish for Nifty50.
Credits to the bulls who held the ground pretty well even with so much of news/event and historically bubble style valuations. Or it could be because the bigger bears are still hibernating.
Dont be confused with a lot of trend lines. The blue one was there from yesterday, the orange line I drew today, because I felt the blue trend line may be too steep and misleading. What if the gap-up on 27th July was just a blip? If yes, the orange trend line that touches the close of 26th July should be more accurate.
The green highlight shows the double top as well as the H&S pattern in a falling market and respecting the trendlines. I wish to change by stance to 100% bearish for tomorrow.
Banknifty TradeSetup For 10-08-2023BankNifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows
Expectations: Volatile day
#Support:44760
Sell below: 44760 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level. agressive sell below demand zone.
Target 1: 44520
Target 2: 44280
#Resistance: 44920
Buy Above: 44920 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level agressive buy above supply zone.
Target 1: 45120
Target 2: 45380
#Demand Zone:44520-44615 may act as a buying zone and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Supply Zone: 44990-45080 may act as a selling zone and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
Falling channel in banknifty 1 hourHi All,
Banknifty is forming falling channel already broke and retested yesterday. 45092 will act as immediate resistance on upper side. If that breaks channel target 44550.
Please consider this is for educational purposes only and consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
09 Aug ’23 Post Mortem BankNifty + RBI MPC analysisBanknifty had a perfect W like pattern formed in the 5mts TF. Even though the rally from 13.50 to close was inspiring, it was not as fierce as on Nifty50. The fall of 441pts ~ 0.98% steals the limelight today.
Now was the 380+ pts reversal from the intraday low to close due to the RBI MPC outcome expectation tomorrow?
Some facts to consider.
The vegetable, fruits, cereal, and rice prices right now are totally overheated. A middle class family of four will outrun their budget. Even a household income of Rs50000 will fall short. More pain if they have 2 school going kids or ageing parents who need medical attention.
The sad thing is, even if RBI hikes the interest rate to control the inflation (which would have resurrected now) - it seldom goes into the control of Vegetable prices.
RBI’s rate hike will only reduce liquidity to the formal sector. The guy who owns a super speciality air conditioned hypermarket that sells tomatoes = YES!. The guy on the roadside selling tomatoes = NO. The small farmer who harvests 20 bags of tomates = NO.
I personally feel a hike of 25bps is overdue, mainly because fuel prices are rising and banks have reported decent quarter results - their balance sheet does not look that stressed out right now. Liquidity is not getting reduced that much and Inflation may hover around the upper band of 6% by the end of this festive season.
I guess the current product & service prices are unaffordable for the lower range of middle-class. The ultra poor get DBT, cash benefits and ration benefits from the Govt. - but the inflation hits them the most. I seriously think the poor people will opt-out from buying vegetables at these prices. The best solution they can pray for right now is a full blown depression.
On the hourly chart, banknifty has managed to stay out of the bearish territory in the 14.15 hourly candle. But the bears have not really lost control - a change in the status quo of RBI will tip the scale in their favor tomorrow. I am going with a 55% neutral and 45% bearish stance for tomorrow.
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 08/08/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 08-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
08 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Stance is neutral !The major reason Nifty50 stayed strong without falling much is banknifty. It did show an attempt to break free from the bearish trend, the opening rush of 279pts till 10.40 is proof for that. From there was loss of steam and a pull back of 204pts. Once this inverted V shape was completed - there was lack of direction or momentum. Options data also indicated a non-directional trend post 11.30.
The change in stance from bearish to neutral worked well for banknifty today. We have marginally closed above the trendline. But for a bullish breakout we need to take back the 45400-45600 levels soon - I am not sure if there is enough momentum for that right now.
If the trades taken on Finnifty today were positional in nature due to expiry, we may have an unwinding tomorrow. This could also pull back banknifty back to the bearish zone - so currently the best idea would be to wait for tomorrow’s price action.
Banknifty TradeSetup For 08-08-2023BankNifty important intraday levels to watch for 07-08-2023
#Support: 44800
Short if candle closes below 44800
#resistance: 45000
Long if candle closes above 45000
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 44630
Target 2= 44400
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 45135
Target 2= 45360
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea.
Queries will be answered in comment section.
Banknifty trade plan for 08-08-2023As we can see the pattern is yet to complete or break its neckline, until then this is not suitable for trading.
we can only expect a momentum when on upper side it breaks 45095 levels and on lower side 44279
Nifty has momentum yesterday as it gave breakout of the H&S with gap up & BN did not.