Q&A_ What is meant to never sell at a loss?Namaste!
You must have heard the words of great investor of all time.
Mr. Warren Buffett once said, “The first rule of an investment is don't lose . And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule."
Losing money means, in simple terms means, selling at a loss . People get fearful and sell when the stock starts falling. There can be unlimited reasons for this happening, we will never going to find it out. What we can do, is just two things:
Buy and Sell .
As long as our sell price is greater than our buy price, we're not losing: that's our purpose here . It is a very key thing and hard to implement though.
I often wonder why the retail people don't sell, when the stock get's them 3 times profit of their buy price. This is also the case with institutions. They don't sell, when the stock gave them 3 times, but they do, when the stock has been came down up to their buying price , and they get happy thinking, that at least I have saved my capital from eroding further. NO brother, you lost opportunity cost. As soon as you sell, some of the great minds and investor buy from you (including WB). It is very very simple logic, but people make it difficult. If you can somehow counter this, a gate to investing success will open.
Anyways, look at the stock Tata Steel. Many could have bought it and sold it at a loss, between a very long period of consolidation (i.e. 13 years).
Okay, let's assume, you could have bought the stock at around Rs 516 (which is an average of swing highs and lows). Buying at a high is another a very big mistake, but I will explain it any other time.
You would be getting a return of (132% price appreciation + 3% dividend yield for 13 years = Total 171% return). That's around 13% annual average returns.
Did you lose money?
A: Of course, who sold it at a loss, loosed money. But the people who held it for these years, have made 171% return at minimum. Congratulations, you beat the market.
I know some people will say me that, why did you chose Tata Steel, why not Rpower, Unitech, Rcom, etc.
Well, I couldn't have placed all eggs in one basket. Sure some of the stocks in my portfolio will get negative returns, and even become zero. But, I am 100% sure, than there will many companies in my portfolio, which will be compensating them, and eventually make me money.
Important: "Portfolio diversification isn't important to maximize gains, but to reduce risks" . Sure, you can add some risky stocks (like small and micro-cap) to increase your returns, but primary objective here is to reduce risks. But don't overdo it i.e. more than 2-3 companies in a portfolio of 10 companies.
And, I have a method which, doesn't allow me to add more of any stock, if it is continuously falling.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment carries an element of financial risk. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing. I already have some shares and may/will add more if I get another opportunity.
Candlestick Analysis
Investment_ TECHM (Tech Mahindra)Namaste!
I have selected another stock, which looks good to invest in. You must have wondering, why am I sharing only technology companies? Well, it is the sector which have fallen mostly.
I don't like to buy at highs. I like to buy at correction, when there is fear, when the weak-hands get panic and selling it. That's what many of the great investors do.
Anyways, TECHM is a stock, which have fallen around 48% from all time highs. Well, in my perspective, this stock, along with other technology stocks are on a sale . I would advice anyone to invest in because, it is a very good opportunity to do so. If you have been reading my articles, you will know why.
And remember, don't concentrate your portfolio in the IT Sector, by buying every stock in the sector. Please diversify.
You can either place GTT (Good Till Triggered) orders with your broker at a price 1017.50-1018 , or manually buy it if it crosses this crucial price level.
I would modify the entry, if it signals to do so based on my plan, and will update it here.
Q: Will it sky-rocket as soon as you buy.
A: NO. Investment takes time to show results, months or years. There are many many things which affect the stock performance. You can't figure out why is this happening.
What can you do is, buy and sell .
Please read previous articles, for reading more about the above thing.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment carries an element of financial risk. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing. I already have some shares and will/may add more if I get another opportunity.
Investment_ RBL BankNamaste!
RBL Bank has been fell hard, since the change of CEO, correcting about 90% from the all time highs.
According to me, there can be 2 main reasons:-
1. The Market is wondering if the CEO is a idle choice. RBL Bank is a private sector bank, and CEO came from a Public Sector bank.
2. The market is also thinking if this could be next Yes Bank . But, this is a complete different scenario than Yes Bank. You see, in any bank, NPAs are a crucial factor to consider. If there are increased or more NPAs, it hits any bank hard.
In the Yes Bank, Mr. Rana and company has given very big loans to some of the big companies. The companies didn't became successful and didn't earned profit. So they defaulted their loans. And it is called NPAs (Non-performing Assets), or you can say a lost money. . Whereas, it is a very different case in the case of RBL bank, except the opportunity cost (if the new CEO takes more and more time to make and run RBL Bank successfully).
Investment:
Q: What is the investment price?
A: If the price moves at or above Rs 96.35
Q: What if it becomes the next Yes Bank?
A: Don't invest more than 10% of your entire capital. And Never sell it at a loss.
Positional:
Q: Can I take it as a positional trade? At what price?
A: At or above Rs 96.35. SL is Rs 82.35.
Q: What is the target.
A: You can do either of the 3 things. a: 3 times your risk amount (Rs 138.35), b: Rs 153, c: Rs 279.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment and trading carries an element of financial risk. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing and trading.
Q&A_ How to read India VIX and what does it actually mean?Namaste!
India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices. From the best bid-ask prices of NIFTY Options contracts, a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days.
In simple words, it tells us the % market is expecting Nifty to move (whether up or down) in the upcoming 30 calendar days.
India VIX chart analysis:-
You must have noticed that each time VIX touch 10-11% levels, it bounces off. Did you ever think what is the annual average return of Nifty 50?
Well, it's around 12%. Don't forget, Nifty also has yearly dividend yield of around 1%, so the total becomes:-
India VIX support = 11%
Dividend yield of Nifty = 1%, total 12%.
I agree, the upper statement sounds non-sense, but in simple terms, it feels logical to me. VIX has to come down, for the Nifty to go up. In other words, we should be ready for a correction in Nifty, until the VIX touches 11% levels.
India VIX goes in the opposite direction than Nifty 50.
Why? Because, the long term trend of the Nifty is up. Hence, VIX will only rise, when there is a shift (expectation) to the downside.
Nifty50 chart analysis:-
1. Nifty has hit the strong weekly trendline resistance, this is the 4th time. I am expecting at least 1 more corrective rally on the downside, which makes it a 5 time resistance. The 5 number is based on the recent history of Nifty 50. Since 2016 to 2020, there were 5 supports, and 5 resistance in the same period.
2. ADX (Average Direction Index) is hovering around 22 points and sloping downwards. It generally means, the market isn't liking the short term uptrend, if it could, then ADX must rise.
Q: When the next correction starts, will all the stocks in the Nifty 50 fall?
A: No, but a small yes. All stocks will correct, but the overvalued will correct more.
Q: Should I wait for the correction to invest in?
A: Nope. You should start investing now, because many stocks in the Nifty 50 has been become undervalued due to this correction (like the IT sector except TCS). Choose them wisely. I don't recommend investing in more than 10 companies of the Nifty 50. Obviously, you should not concentrate your portfolio in any of the sectors, but diverse in the companies and sectors whose business you understand.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Q&A_ When to sell Ultratech?Namaste!
I often wonder why do retail people and even institutions sell when the stock has been already fell. Why didn't they sell when the stock was rising?
I follow a simple principal. Either sell it at a profit or don't sell.
Anyways, In the weekly chart of the ultratech, you must have noticed the circles I've drawn.
These circles represent the price as well as volume candles.
Rising prices should mostly be supported by the rising volumes. But in this case, the volume is falling. This can be a fake-breakout. And the number 3 is very strong indication.
This isn't the 1st time for Ultratech. The stock has proved the above statement two times previously.
Opinion to investors: Well, investors should never sell any stock they own. This isn't limited to this stock, but to any stock. But, if you were planning to add more (buy more) shares, you can wait for a correction.
Opinion to traders: Well, you can trail your stop loss to either Rs 6510 or Rs 6584. Again, both the prices has importance of their own, so don't get excited for the high SL price. The first price is based on the weekly candles and second is daily.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Investment_ TCSNamaste!
TCS has been one of the stocks which didn't corrected much in the "corona crash", dropping only similar to 30%.
The main reasons for this stability was:-
1. IT sector still offered it's employees a work from home opportunity, so it's business didn't affected that much.
2. TCS is the biggest company in the IT sector today, and it's share price has been very stable due to the fact that it didn't fell more than 30% since the year 2010.
3. So, again it fell 30% and it's price is trading near support level.
4. It's an very good investment opportunity, for the people who are very conservative in risk taking. Hence, they should not expect higher returns rather stability.
5. Investment price looks good at current price of Rs 3074.
6. More capital allocation can be done to this stock as compare to small and mid-cap due to the nature of stability. But not more than 20%.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Investment_ Disney_ Walt Disney CompanyNamaste!
Walt Disney is the biggest media company by market cap in the world. It has multiplied around 70 times (to date) since the IPO.
Talking around the current scenario, it had acquired Marvel for 4 billion dollars a decade ago which made 18 billion dollars to Disney. The point here is that it is taking good management decisions to adapt to changing business environments and killing the competition by acquiring them. And OTT platforms will be the future. TVs are a day of the past. They (OTT) platforms will charge a fees for almost every movie if not all in the coming decade. It will make them a lot of profit.
So, it is a good investment opportunity for Disney at current prices. The main reasons are following.
1. It has corrected >50% from all time highs. Buying after a correction is always a good idea, which has so much potential to maximize your returns in the long run.
2. If you look at the charts, you may notice that it is kind of creating a higher swing low, which is a good bullish indication. Value for money stocks tend to not easily fall in bear market or weak economy cycles.
3. OTT platforms are the future, where I think every movie will be charged money to be watched, making these OTT platforms a lot of money. This is my thinking please comment your idea.
3. Disney has been releasing the content, which is almost watchable with our families. Which is quite good because they are almost having audience of all the age groups. It's content is enjoyable from the age group of 10-60 years, in my opinion.
Investment at current prices is a good opportunity since the stock very rarely corrects below 55-60%.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Investment_ Redington IndiaNamaste!
Redington India is a good mid-cap pick considering it's fundamentals, very consistent EPS, and after a good correction.
It is a buy at current prices (Rs 126.55).
The logic is simple, if a company with good fundamentals available at a discount, then it's a perfect opportunity to invest.
Remember, never invest more than 10% of your capital in any particular stock. Diversification is a must for reducing risks.
I have shared many stocks till now and will share more in the future, in the tradingview platform. I expect anyone, who is reading these articles to do your own analysis, and pick the stocks of your choice. Make a perfect blend of sectors and stocks resulting in a market-beating portfolio.
The most important rule in Investing is, never ever sell at a loss. There are only two possibilities in my opinion, either the company goes bankrupt, or you make money.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
ABFRL - Bullish Swing ReversalNSE: ABFRL is closing with a bullish swing reversal candle supported with volumes.
Today's volumes and candlestick formation indicates strong demand and stock should move to previous swing highs in the coming days.
The stock has been moving along the horizontal support for the past few days which is indicating demand.
One can look for a 8% to 13% gain on deployed capital in this swing trade.
The view is to be discarded in the event of the stock breaking previous swing low.
#NSEindia #Trading #StockMarketindia #Tradingview #SwingTrade
BANKNIFTY preparing for something big..?As we can see BANKNIFTY remained sideways to volatile throughout the day as analysed in our previous post. We can see important demand zone beneath which is not allowing BANKNIFTY to fall further hence it could be a phase of accumulation and any breach of this zone could show a directional move so plan your trades accordingly everyone
RALLISH - Bullish Consolidation Breakout with VolumesNSE: RALLIS is closing with a bullish consolidation breakout candle supported with volumes.
Today's volumes and candlestick formation indicates strong demand and stock should move to previous swing highs in the coming days.
The stock has been moving along the horizontal support for the past few days which is indicating demand.
One can look for a 8% to 13% gain on deployed capital in this swing trade.
The view is to be discarded in the event of the stock breaking previous swing low.
#NSEindia #Trading #StockMarketindia #Tradingview #SwingTrade
Weak but very close to important SUPPORTAs we can see BANKNIFTY did showed weakness but had reversed strongly leading to very volatile session today. Moreover we can see BANKNIFTY taking support around 43350-43400 levels despite being weak as this level has not been tested much before hence unless BANKNIFTY closes below the zone, we can expect BANKNIFTY to remain sideways to volatile in coming trading sessions so plan your trades accordingly.
ZENTEC - Bullish Swing ReversalNSE: ZENTEC is closing with a bullish swing reversal candle supported with volumes.
Today's volumes and candlestick formation indicates strong demand and stock should move to previous swing highs in the coming days.
The stock has been moving along the horizontal support for the past few days which is indicating demand.
One can look for a 8% to 12% gain on deployed capital in this swing trade.
The view is to be discarded in the event of the stock breaking previous swing low.
#NSEindia #Trading #StockMarketindia #Tradingview #SwingTrade
More of FALL coming up in BANKNIFTY..?As we can see BANKNIFTY has finally broken off from the pattern through weak opening and has formed more like a bearish pinbar candle in daily TF showing weakness is both time frames. now if BANKNIFTY opens flat to strong and breaches last trading days low, we may again see some good unidirectional fall in both INDEX so plan your trades accordingly.
Positional or Longterm Opportunity in Rajesh ExportsGo Long above 454.8 for Targets of 636.3, 708.9, and 781.5 with SL 418.5
Reasons to go Long :
1. On a Weekly timeframe if we draw the Fibonacci retracement tool from the all-time swing low (point A) to the all-time swing high (point B) then we see stock took support from the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
2. Also a bullish candlestick pattern Bullish Hammer (marked with orange color) is formed around 0.618 Fibonacci level.
3. In addition to this there is a strong support zone (marked with green color), from which the stock is taking support and moving up.