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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Gold bounces off resistance-turned-support, Jackson Hole eyedGold prices have ended a two-day drop as traders look ahead to the key Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, where a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is highly anticipated. Gold has bounced back from its recent low, rebounding off the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a key previous resistance line. Positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest that gold could push past the $2,520 mark comprising the 50% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of its February-June move. Following that, the buyers can aim for $2,575 and potentially $2,600. On the downside, gold is supported by the 10-day EMA around $2,482 and a former resistance level now acting as support near $2,474. If gold drops below these levels, it could test the $2,465 mark and the 50-day EMA at $2,415. A further decline past $2,415 would need to break through a support line of around $2,410 and the $2,400 level to shift control to sellers. In summary, gold is on a positive path, but there are hurdles ahead before it can make significant gains.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Crude Oil rebounds toward 200-SMA as the key week beginsWTI Crude Oil posts more than 1.0% intraday gain early Monday, after declining in the last three consecutive weeks, as energy traders brace for a rollercoaster week comprising multiple central bank announcements and top-tier data. In doing so, the black gold takes clues from a nearly oversold RSI (14) amid cautious optimism in the market. However, bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beneath the 200-SMA keep the oil sellers hopeful of visiting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its December 2023 to April 2024 upside, near $75.30. Following that, a seven-month-old upward-sloping support line surrounding $74.40 will be a crucial level for the bears to conquer to keep the reins. In a case where the commodity prices remain bearish past $74.40, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward the previous monthly low of around $72.40. Alternatively, the WTI Crude Oil buyers’ ability to provide a daily close beyond the 200-SMA hurdle of $78.40 won’t give them the throne as a downward-sloping resistance line from early July, close to $79.50, will challenge further advances. Also restricting the commodity’s run-up is the $80.00 threshold and a two-month-old horizontal resistance region near $80.30-60. If the energy benchmark manages to remain strong past $80.60, the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of around $83.00 and the monthly high of $84.50 will lure the bulls. Overall, the market’s consolidation allows WTI crude Oil to lick its wounds but the bullish trend is far from the reach.
TVC:USOIL
by MTradingGlobal
Central Bank Breakout analysis to buyCentral Bank of India is a commercial bank. The Bank's segments include Treasury Operations, Corporate/Wholesale Banking, Retail Banking and other Banking business. The Treasury Operations segment includes dealing in government and other securities, money market operations and Forex operations. If we look at the chart: The market has broken multiple bullish pattern confirmations. It has a broken Sideways Range, Head and shoulder, while having a very strong volume at the breakout. If we look at the RSI, its crossing 60 to the upside can be a good sign of long-term bullish for the stock. Investors of short term traders can proceed with the stock as follows: you can execute the trade with R:R of 1:2. Plan of Action: Buy: above 69.40 Stop loss: 66 Target1: 75.75
NSE:CENTRALBKLong
by finnova_
100-SMA prods GBPUSD bears on BoE Super ThursdayGBPUSD stays defensive at the lowest level in a week, snapping a two-day losing streak, as the pair traders await the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcements, as well as the quarterly monetary policy report that makes the day a “Super Thursday”. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA puts a short-term trading floor under the prices near 1.2480, especially amid the downbeat RSI suggesting a pause in the previous fall. However, the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained downside break of a two-week-old support line, now immediate resistance surrounding 1.2515, and clear trading beneath a downward-sloping trend line resistance stretched since mid-March, at 1.2585 at the latest, keeps the sellers hopeful. Even if the Pound Sterling gains support from the BoE and rises past 1.2585, the monthly high of 1.2634 will be the last defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 100-SMA support of 1.2480, as well as the BoE’s inability to convince the GBPUSD bulls, will resume a south run targeting the 1.2400 threshold. In a case where the Cable bears keep the reins past 1.2400, the yearly bottom marked in April surrounding 1.2300 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s March-May moves, near 1.2265, will be in the spotlight ahead of the late 2023 bottom of near 1.2067. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains in a bearish trend on the BoE Super Thursday despite the latest consolidation. Hence, even a surprise rebound should not be considered a bullish sign.
by MTradingGlobal
Short Term Swing Trading Idea in Central Bank for 20% UpsideHi, NSE:CENTRALBK has given a Bullish Inverted Head & Shoulder Breakout on Daily charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Daily and Monthly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:CENTRALBK
by raigvivek
AUDUSD portrays “fakeout” on RBA’s status quoOn Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and dragged the AUDUSD pair back from an intraday high. With this, the Aussie pair defies Friday’s breakout of a four-month-old descending resistance line, terming it the “false breakout” or “fakeout”. In addition to the fakeout, the RSI’s retreat from the overbought territory and an impending bear cross on the MACD also tease the sellers. However, a clear downside break of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line surrounding 0.6600 and RBA Governor Michele Bullock's dovish remarks are needed for the bears to retake control. In that case, the pair’s quick fall toward 0.6570 and the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 0.6530 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth mentioning that the seller’s dominance past 0.6530 depends on the ability to break a three-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6515 at the latest. Meanwhile, an area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, near 0.6645-40, guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, March’s peak of 0.6667 and the 0.6700 threshold will challenge the buyers. If the Aussie pair remains firmer beyond the 0.6700 hurdle, 0.6730, 0.6780 and the 0.6800 round figure could test the upside momentum before directing the bulls toward the late 2023 high of 0.6871. Overall, the AUDUSD pair signals a pullback price move, but the bearish momentum will likely remain tepid unless fundamental support is gained.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold grinds within $15 trading range as Fed decision loomsGold price licks its wounds around the mid-$2,100s while portraying a choppy move between the one-week-old descending resistance line and $2,148 support confluence comprising the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the previous yearly high. In doing so, the XAUUSD depicts the market’s cautious mood ahead of the all-important monetary policy decision from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) while consolidating the previous weekly loss, the first in four. It’s worth noting that the overbought RSI (14) line and an impending bear cross on the MACD favor downside bias for the precious metal. In that case, a daily closing beneath $2,148 becomes necessary for the sellers to retake control. Following that, the late December 2023 peak of around $2,090 will be a quick favorite for the bears before the tops marked during early 2024 around $2,065. It’s worth noting that the $2,100 round figure also acts as a downside filter for the bullion. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the one-week-old descending resistance line surrounding $2,163 could quickly propel the Gold price toward the recent all-time high of near $2,195. Should the quote remain firmer past $2,195, the $2,200 round figure will challenge the XAUUSD bulls. It should be observed that an upward-sloping resistance line from May 2023 also highlights the $2,200 threshold as an important hurdle toward the north. Overall, the Gold price is likely to depict a downside move unless the US Federal Reserve (Fed) disappoints the US Dollar bulls by resisting the hawkish performance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD flirts with 1.0880-75 key support as Fed week beginsEURUSD remains pressured around 1.0890 early Monday, after posting the first weekly loss in four. In doing so, the Euro pair grinds near the 1.0880-75 support confluence comprising the 100-SMA and a five-week-old rising trend line amid the initial hours of the week comprising the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. It’s worth noting that an impending bull cross on the MACD and a below 30 level of RSI (14) suggest the pre-FOMC consolidation of the quote. However, the corrective bounce appears elusive unless buyers manage to cross a downward-sloping trend line from the monthly high, close to 1.0945 at the latest. Even so, the monthly top surrounding 1.0980 and the 1.1000 threshold will act as the final defense of the sellers. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 1.0880-75 key support will allow the EURUSD bears to attack the 200-SMA level of 1.0830. Following that, the 1.0790-85 and the 1.0730 levels could test the sellers before directing the prices toward the yearly low marked in February near 1.0695. In a case where the Euro remains bearish past 1.0695, the May 2023 low of 1.0635 and March 2023 bottom surrounding 1.0515 will provide intermediate halts during a likely south-run targeting the previous yearly low of 1.0448. Overall, the EURUSD pair stays on the bear’s radar even if the oscillators suggest consolidation ahead of the key FOMC.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold stays range-bound ahead of US Retail Sales Gold fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off the weekly low as market players await the US Retail Sales for February. In doing so, the spot Gold price, namely the XAUUSD, seesaws within a $48 trading range comprising an ascending resistance line stretched from May 2023 and the previous yearly top. It’s worth noting that the sluggish oscillators and the pre-data anxiety suggest a continuation of the sideways range. However, the bulls appear to have run out of fuel hence sellers are likely to benefit more on a downside break of $2,148 support. In that case, a quick fall toward the $2,100 round figure will be imminent but a 3.5-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding $2,090 could challenge the XAUUSD sellers afterward. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the aforementioned multi-month-old rising resistance line, close to $2,186 could recall the Gold buyers. However, the $2,200 threshold and 78.6% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s October-December 2023 moves, near $2,240, will challenge the XAUUSD’s upside momentum afterward. Following that, the 100% FE level of $2,313 and the $2,500 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. Overall, Gold stays within a long-term bullish trend but the short-term view appears to favor a pullback in prices should the scheduled data allow the US Dollar to defend the first weekly gain in four.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD probes month-long bearish channel on China’s returnMarket sentiment improved early Monday as China returned to trading after a week-long Lunar New Year holiday. With this, AUDUSD justifies its role as a risk barometer and cheers optimism at the biggest customer, namely China, by challenging a one-month-old bearish trend. However, the road towards the north appears long and bumpy before convincing the Aussie bulls. That said, the stated falling channel’s top line, close to 0.6555, guards the immediate run-up of the pair ahead of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, between 0.6620 and 0.6640, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls before taking control. On the contrary, the AUDUSD pairs’ retreat will aim for the 0.6500 round figure before convincing the bears to target the monthly low of near 0.6440. It’s worth noting, however, that the bottom line of a one-month-long descending trend channel, close to 0.6430 at the latest, will restrict further downside of the pair. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.6430, a slew of support levels around 0.6400, 0.6340 and 0.6320 will try pushing back the bearish moves. However, the pair’s downside past 0.6320 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the previous yearly low surrounding 0.627. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to extend the latest rebound as upbeat sentiment joins firmer MACD and RSI signals. However, the room towards the north appears limited and the upside is also dependent on the RBA and FOMC Minutes.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls prod 200-EMA resistance after BoJ status quoUSDJPY prints a three-day uptrend while extending the previous week’s recovery from the lowest level since late July after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) defends the current monetary policy. In doing so, the Japanese central bank rules out concerns surrounding its gradual exit from the ultra-easy monetary policy amid a recent increase in inflation. With this, the Yen pair pokes the 200-EMA hurdle, extending recovery from a five-month-old horizontal support. The rebound also justifies the RSI (14) line’s U-turn from the oversold territory, which in turn suggests the quote’s further run-up beyond the key EMA surrounding 143.80. However, the bearish MACD signals and a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-November, close to 145.30 by the press time, will challenge further advances. In a case where the buyers keep reins past 145.30, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the monthly high near 148.35 and then toward the 150.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, growing chatters about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cuts in early 2024 could join the downbeat yields to weigh on the USDJPY pair, which in turn highlights the aforementioned horizontal support region of around 141.50-142.00. Should the Yen pair sellers manage to break the 141.50 support, it can quickly drop to the 140.00 psychological magnet before highlighting July’s low of 137.23 as the key support. Following that, the pair’s bearish trajectory towards the yearly bottom of 127.20 appears a favorite for the bears. Overall, USDJPY regains upside momentum but the room towards the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays defensive near key support line on Fed dayEURUSD fades bounce off an ascending support line stretched from early January as market players brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcements on Wednesday. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is nearly oversold and the MACD flags bull cross, which in turn favors the Euro pair’s sustained trading beyond the stated support line, close to 1.0640 by the press time. That said, the quote’s weakness past 1.0640, will make it vulnerable to decline towards March’s bottom surrounding 1.0515 before testing the yearly low of around 1.0480. Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s recovery moves will initially aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-July upside, near 1.0790. However, a two-month-old descending resistance line and the 200-day SMA, respectively near 1.0815 and 1.0830, could challenge the Euro buyers past 1.0790. In a case where the pair manages to remain firmer past 1.0790, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the late August swing high of around 1.0940 can’t be ruled out. Overall, EURUSD remains bearish even if the oscillators challenge the downside bias.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY edges higher within multi-month-old bullish channelUSDJPY defends a two-week uptrend within an ascending trend channel established since early March. In doing so, the Yen pair stays near an upper limit of the stated channel, recently wobbling between the 21-day SMA and a one-month-long resistance line. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line suggests the bullish exhaustion while the MACD also lacks directional momentum and hence a pullback towards the 21-day SMA level of around 146.55 appears imminent. Adding strength to the stated SMA support is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn. In a case where the Yen pair drops below 146.55, July’s peak of 144.90 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 142.55 can test the bears before allowing them to challenge the key supports, namely the 100-day SMA and the aforementioned channel’s bottom line which are around 141.80 and 141.40 respectively. Meanwhile, an ascending trend line from mid-August, close to 148.80, guards immediate recovery of the USDJPY pair ahead of the bullish channel’s top line, close to 149.80 at the latest. Following that, the 150.00 psychological magnet and 150.30 levels may test the Yen pair buyers. In a case where the risk-barometer pair stays firmer past 150.30, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards challenging the previous yearly peak of around 152.00 can’t be ruled out. To sum up, USDJPY buyers keep the reins at the start of the Fed week, even as Japan’s national holiday and sluggish upside momentum prod the bulls of late.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD drops within bearish channel with eyes on Jackson HoleEURUSD prepares for the sixth consecutive weekly fall as ECB and Federal Reserve bosses prepare for the annual showdown at the Jackson Hole Symposium. That said, the Euro pair remains pressured within a one-month-old descending trend channel amid downbeat RSI and MACD conditions, which in turn suggest less downside room and highlights the stated channel’s bottom line of around 1.0785 as the key support. In a case where the sellers dominate past 1.0790, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of May-July upside, near 1.0770, will act as the final defense of the buyers, a break of which will direct the prices toward May’s bottom of 1.0635. On the contrary, a fortnight-long falling resistance line, close to 1.0880 at the latest, guards immediate EURUSD recovery within the bearish channel formation. Following that, the mentioned channel’s top line of near 1.0980 and the 200-SMA surrounding 1.1015-20 could test the Euro buyers before giving them a charge. In that case, the monthly high of 1.1065 and the late July peak of 1.1150 may check the upside moves ahead of directing the quote to the yearly top of 1.1275. Overall, EURUSD bears appear running out of steam but the buyers need strong reasons to retake control, which in turn highlights the central bankers’ speeches at the key event for the pair traders to watch.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers seek re-entry but road towards north is long and bumGold braces for the first weekly gain in five while bouncing off the multi-month low marked earlier in the week, piercing the 200-DMA of late. The upside bias gains credence from a looming bull-cross on the MACD, as well as a recovery in the RSI (14) line from the oversold territory. However, a nine-month-old previous support line, close to $1,950, precedes a downward-sloping resistance line from early May, around $1,955 at the latest, to restrict the short-term upside of the XAUUSD. Also acting as a barrier towards the north is a three-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding the $1,985 and the $2,000 psychological magnet. In a case where the metal remains firmer past $2,000, the yearly high of around $2,067 will be in the spotlight. On the flip side, the recent low of around $1,885 holds the key to the Gold seller’s entry. Following that, the early-March swing high of near $1,858 and the YTD bottom around $1,804, quickly followed by the $1,800 threshold, will challenge the XAUUSD bears. Should there be a sustained downtrend of the bullion past $1,800, the November 2022 peak of around $1,767 will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, the Gold Price is likely to recover but the reversal of the multi-day-old bearish trend is still unclear to predict.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers still occupy driver’s seat after Fed, eyes on ECB noDespite the Fed-inflicted volatility, the Gold price remains bullish as markets brace for the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting. That said, successful trading beyond the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, respectively near $1,950 and $1,904, keeps the buyers hopeful. Also acting as short-term support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s February-May upside, near $1,935. It’s worth noting that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level adds strength to the $1,904 support while the $1,900 round figure and June’s low of $1,893 are some extra downside filters that can defend the XAUUSD bulls if they’re on the verge of losing the throne. In a case where the quote remains bearish past $1,893, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the early March swing high of around $1,854 and then to February’s bottom of $1,804 can’t be ruled out. Even so, the Gold buyers need to provide a successful upside break of the 10-week-old horizontal resistance area around $1,985 to tighten their grip. That said, the $2,000 psychological magnet and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of around $2,005 may act as additional resistances to test the XAUUSD bulls before directing them to April’s peak of around $2,050. Following that, the yearly high of around $2,067 will regain the market’s attention. Overall, the Gold Price remains on the bull’s radar unless declining below $1,893.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers are ready to break $1,900 but road to the south is Gold stays on the way to post the third consecutive weekly loss even as the one-month-old falling trend line prod XAUUSD sellers around $1,900 of late. Also challenging the quote’s further downside is the nearly oversold RSI (14) line. However, the bullion’s sustained trading beneath the fortnight-long falling trend line and the 200-SMA, respectively near $1,918 and $1,956, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the sellers hopeful of witnessing further downside. In a case where the quote crosses these hurdles, the monthly top will join the late May’s swing high, around $1,983-85, to act as the last defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the Gold seller’s dominance past the $1,900 round figure will need validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its June 09-23 moves, near $1,898. Following that, the 78.6% and 100% FE, close to $1,887 and $1,873, should be quick to lure the XAUUSD bears. It’s worth observing that the precious metal’s weakness past $1,873 will have the early March high of $1,856 as an intermediate halt before dragging prices toward the yearly low marked in February around $,804. Overall, Gold price is likely to remain bearish but the south run is less likely to be smooth.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal