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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

USDCAD portrays bearish consolidation on BoC DayUSDCAD remains unimpressive after breaking a seven-week-old horizontal support zone the previous day. That said, the RSI (14) rebounds from oversold territory and hence lures the buyers. However, a clear upside break of the support-turned-resistance area surrounding 1.3410, backed by the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) hawkish tone, becomes necessary to convince buyers. Even so, the 200-SMA hurdle of near 1.3520 and a three-week-old resistance area surrounding 1.3565-70 can check the upside momentum before directing it to the previous monthly peak of around 1.3655 and then to April’s top near 1.3670. On the flip side, BoC is expected to keep the benchmark rates unchanged and hence a dovish tone or a signal to cut rates in futures would be enough to convince USDCAD bears. In that case, an upward-sloping support line from mid-April, close to 1.3350 by the press time, appears the key support for the pair sellers to watch during the quote’s further weakness. Should the Loonie pair sellers manage to keep the reins past 1.3350, the odds of witnessing a downward trajectory towards the yearly low marked in January around 1.3260 can’t be ruled out. To sum up, USDCAD is likely to recover but the upside hinges on how well the BoC can defend hawks despite keeping the monetary policy unchanged.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD has limited downside room on RBA dayHaving breached a one-month-old bullish channel the last Friday, AUDUSD portrays a recovery that recently crossed the 200-SMA and a horizontal support area comprising multiple levels marked since early December 2022, respectively near 0.6900 and 0.6880-70. Also adding to the downside filter is a seven-week-long ascending trend line, close to 0.6840 at the latest, a break of which won’t hesitate to drag prices toward the previous monthly low surrounding 0.6685. It should be noted that the oversold RSI (14) hints at a corrective bounce even if the MACD supports the bearish momentum. Alternatively, recovery moves may initially aim for the 0.7000 psychological magnet in case of the hawkish RBA announcements, other than the already known 0.25% rate hike. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, around 0.7080 by the press time, could probe the AUDUSD bulls. In a case where the Aussie pair buyers remain in control past 0.7080, a weekly resistance line near 0.7165 will act as the last defense of the ears bears. To sum up, AUDUSD remains on the bear’s radar on the RBA day but the downside appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears need to crack $1,770 hurdle to retake controlGold bears struggle inside a one-month-old rising wedge bearish formation, recently bouncing off the support line. The 21-DMA adds strength to the confirmation point near $1,770, which is the lower line of the pattern. A clear break of the same could trigger a slump toward nearly four-month-long horizontal support surrounding $1,730. Following that, the $1,700 threshold and the theoretical target of the rising wedge, close to $1,650, will gain the market’s attention. Meanwhile, the $1,800 round figure and the upper line of the stated wedge, around $1,818, could lure gold buyers. In a case where the metal crosses the $1,818 resistance, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the mid-June to late September downside, near $1,821, could challenge the bulls before giving them the throne. In those conditions, $1,858 and $1,880 may act as buffers during the north run that ultimately aims for the $1,900 round figure. Overall, Gold price loses upside momentum but the sellers have a tough task to retake power.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD juggles near six-month high ahead of Fed meetingDownbeat US inflation data propelled the EURUSD pair to the highest levels since June on Tuesday. However, the upper line of the one-month-old bullish channel, currently around 1.0670, probed the pair buyers at the multi-day top. Also challenging the Euro bulls is the overbought RSI conditions suggesting a pullback in prices. As a result, an upward-sloping trend line from the December start, close to 1.0520 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. However, 100-SMA and the bottom of the stated channel, respectively near 1.0450 and 1.0400, could challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the Fed sounds too hawkish and the pair defies the bullish chart pattern, a slump towards the 200-SMA and then to the late October swing high, near 1.0275 and 1.0090 in that order, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, successful trading beyond the immediate hurdle, namely the aforementioned channel’s top near 1.0670, could get another chance to retreat near the 1.0700 threshold due to the consistently overbought RSI. In a case where EURUSD bulls ignore RSI and cross the 1.0700 resistance, May’s peak near 1.0785 and March’s low surrounding 1.0805 could act as the last defenses of the pair sellers. That said, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 1.0800 may target a late April high near 1.0935 and the 1.1000 round figure. Overall, EURUSD bulls are likely to occupy the driver’s seat unless the US Federal Reserve appears too hawkish, which is less anticipated.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD signals further run-up towards 1.3800 ahead of BOCA clear upside break of the 50-DMA and a descending trend line from October’s peak keeps USDCAD bulls hopeful ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) interest rate hike announcement. That said, the Loonie pair’s upside towards the previous monthly top surrounding 1.3800 appears imminent. However, multiple hurdles near 1.3850 could challenge the quote’s additional north-run, a break of which will direct the buyers towards the yearly high marked in October surrounding 1.3980. Alternatively, USDCAD pullback remains elusive unless the quote remains beyond the 50-DMA level near 1.3565. Also testing the bears is the aforementioned resistance line from October 13, now support near 1.3550. It’s worth noting that the three-week-old ascending support line, close to 1.3430, acts as an additional downside filter for the Loonie pair before directing the bears towards the 1.3230-25 horizontal support comprising July’s high and November’s low. Overall, the USDCAD pair has already flashed a bullish signal before the BOC’s widely anticipated rate hike.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD needs to cross 200-DMA for further upsideAUDUSD grinds near a three-month high as the RBA lifts benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, as expected. Given the RSI pullback from the overbought conditions, a monthly resistance line near 0.6740 restricts the quote’s immediate upside ahead of the key six-month-old descending trend line, near 0.6880 by the press time. Even so, the 200-DMA level around 0.6920 becomes the last defense of the pair sellers and may probe the north run afterward. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6920, a run-up towards the tops marked in August, close to 0.7010 and 0.7135, will be in focus. Alternatively, a daily closing below the the 100-DMA and July’s low near 0.6680-85 could please the AUD/USD bears. In a case where the Aussie pair remains weak past 0.6680, a south-run towards October’s peak near 0.6545 can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past 0.6545 will make it vulnerable to challenging the yearly low surrounding 0.6170. Overall, AUDUSD approaches the key resistances but the buyers seem running out of fuel.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD sellers struggle on the RBA dayAUDUSD bounces off a one-month-old horizontal support while poking the 200-SMA on the day of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) scheduled monetary policy announcements. While a clear downside break of the 0.6345-60 support area opens the door for the Aussie pair’s fresh yearly low, currently around 0.6170, an upward-sloping support line from October 13 could act as a buffer near the 0.6250 level. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the AUDUSD pair’s moves between September 13 to October 27, close to 0.6060, will be in the spotlight during the pair’s downside past 0.6170. Alternatively, the 200-SMA and seven-day-old previous support, respectively near 0.6450 and 0.6480, could challenge the AUDUSD pair’s recovery moves. Following that, multiple levels marked since September 26 could test the buyers around 0.6540-50. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s successful run-up beyond 0.6550 could aim for the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the quote’s September-October downside, close to 0.6630 and 0.6755 in that order.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD braces for further upside but 0.9900 tests bullsEURUSD jostles with a four-month-old resistance line, as well as the 50-DMA, respectively around 0.9870 and 0.9900, as it lures buyers near a fortnight top. Given the firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals, the major currency pair is likely to refresh the monthly top, currently around the parity level. In doing so, September’s peak surrounding 1.0200 will be crucial to confirm the bullish trend. Following that, a run-up towards the five-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.0360 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s failure to provide a successful break above 0.9900 could drag it to the monthly support line, close to 0.9720 by the press time. Even so, the bears may want to wait for a clear break of the four-week-long support zone around 0.9660 to retake control. In that case, the yearly low of 0.9535 will gain the market’s attention. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.9535, the 0.9000 psychological magnet should lure the sellers. Overall, EURUSD is up for regaining the bull’s confidence but a clear break of 0.990 is necessary.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD struggles to justify RBNZ’s eighth rate hikeAlthough the RBNZ didn’t disappoint, like the RBA, and announced a widely expected 0.50% rate hike, the NZDUSD pair remains mildly bid after refreshing the weekly top. In doing so, the Kiwi pair stays below a one-week-old horizontal hurdle surrounding 0.5750. With this, the odds of the quote’s pullback towards the latest swing low near 0.5680 can’t be ruled out. However, the 0.5620 and the yearly low around 0.5565 will challenge the bears afterward. Meanwhile, a successful break of the 0.5750 resistance will aim for the 100-SMA hurdle near 0.5830. Following that, a downward sloping trend line from August 12, close to 0.5925 by the press time, will challenge the NZDUSD pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that the 200-SMA resistance near 0.5980 appears the last defense of the bears, a break of which won’t hesitate to probe the previous monthly top near 0.6160. Overall, NZDUSD remains in a bear trap despite the latest rebound. The downside, however, appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD drops towards 0.6500 on RBA’s smaller rate hikeAUDUSD reverses the previous weekly gains as the RBA disappoints bulls with 25 basis points (bps) of a rate hike, compared to a widely anticipated 50 bps move. With this, the Aussie pair reverses from a two-week-old resistance line, as well as a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since September 26. That said, the pair’s latest weakness aims for the 0.6400 threshold before testing the recent swing low near 0.6390. However, the yearly low near 0.6360 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of September 15-29 moves, near 0.6280, could probe the bears afterward. Alternatively, the aforementioned resistance line and the horizontal resistance area challenge buyers below 0.6535. Following that, the 100-SMA level surrounding 0.6625 could gain the market’s attention. In a case where the AUDUSD buyers manage to cross the 0.6625 hurdle, the 0.6740-50 area comprising the 200-SMA and highs marked since September 20 will act as the last defense of sellers. Overall, AUDUSD is ready for a fresh downside and can renew the yearly low as RBA disappoints policy hawks.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold consolidates monthly losses inside bearish channelGold braces for the first weekly gain in three while bouncing off a two-year low inside a one-month-old bearish channel. That said, the metal’s latest recovery approaches a fortnight-old hurdle surrounding $1665. Any further upside, however, will be challenged by the stated channel’s upper limit, close to $1,680. If the buyers manage to defy the bearish chart pattern, the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,707 could act as the last defense of the bears before activating the run-up to refresh the monthly top, currently around $1,734. Alternatively, gold’s pullback may aim for the latest swing low surrounding $1,641 before directing the bears towards the yearly bottom of $1,614. In a case where the bullion sellers keep controls past $1,614, the aforementioned channel’s bottom at around $1,607 and the $1,600 should probe the further downside. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past $1,600 won’t hesitate to aim for the tops marked during August and September 2019, around $1555-57. Overall, gold holds onto the bearish trajectory but a short-term rebound can’t be ruled out.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY renews 24-year high with eyes on 141.60USDJPY prints a three-week run-up as it pierces the previous multi-day top to print the highest levels since 1998. Considering the RSI (14) uptrend, not overbought, as well as the bullish MACD signals, the quote is likely to approach the 140.00 threshold. It should be noted that the RSI could turn overbought at that level, given the minor space available, which in turn might trigger a short-term pullback before further advances. In a case where the prices keep rallying past 140.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s late March to early August moves, near 141.60, could gain the market’s attention. On the contrary, a three-week-long ascending support line near 137.75 restricts the pullback of the USDJPY pair, a break of which could highlight the 50-DMA support level surrounding 135.90. If at all the pair drops below the 135.90 DMA support, an upward sloping support line from late May, near 132.10, will be the last defense of the bears before directing them to the 130.00 psychological magnet. Overall, USDJPY buyers have some spare capacity to renew the yearly peak. However, the upside room is limited considering the RSI conditions.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls have a long way ahead to take control as ECB loomsEURUSD fades a week-long recovery mode ahead of the key European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The pullback could also be linked to the pair’s inability to cross the 100-SMA amid RSI retreat from overbought territory, which in turn suggests the further weakness of the quote. However, a weekly support line, now resistance, joins the 100-SMA near 1.0230 to challenge intraday sellers, a break of which could quickly drag the quote towards the previous Wednesday’s peak surrounding 1.0120. In a case where the major currency pair drops below the 1.0120 supports, the odds of its slump towards the parity level can’t be ruled out. However, bullish MACD signals probe the bears targeting the fresh yearly low, currency around 0.9950. Meanwhile, a sustained trading beyond the 1.0230 resistance confluence can direct short-term buyers towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of June 09 to July 14 downside, at 1.0265. Iff the EURUSD prices cross the 1.0265 resistance, a five-week-old horizontal area including the 50% Fibonacci retracement, near 1.0360-65, could challenge the buyers. It’s worth noting that a convergence of the 200-SMA and a downward sloping trend line from June 09, close to 1.0400, appears the last defense of the pair bears, a break of which could give control to the bulls. To sum up, EURUSD sellers seem flexing muscles ahead of the ECB’s widely known 0.25% rate hike and hence the region’s central bank should do more to defend the Euro buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers brace for big data, central bankers above $1,800Gold remains inside a two-week-old symmetrical triangle but the bulls seem running out of steam of late. That said, the stated triangle’s bottom line and an upward sloping trend line support from May, respectively around $1,822 and $1,812, could challenge the metal’s short-term downside. Also acting as a downside filter is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June upside, close to $1,805. In a case where the gold prices drop below $1,805, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards the yearly low near $1,786 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, the resistance line of the triangle, near $1,840, guards the short-term recovery of the precious metal. Should the bulls manage to cross the $1,840 hurdle, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,858 could test the upside momentum before highlighting the monthly high, around $1,880. It’s worth noting that the late 2021 peak also increases the strength of the $1,880 hurdle. Overall, gold prices are likely to witness a gradual downside unless crossing the $1,880 key resistance. However, multiple important statistics and central bankers’ speeches could offer a surprise. Hence, gold bear’s discretion is required during the week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD teases bears ahead of RBA’s rate hikeAfter failing to cross the 200-day EMA, AUDUSD broke a three-week-old support line and the 50-day EMA as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) second rate hike of 2022. Given the steady RSI and recently bullish MACD signals, the quote is likely to rebound towards the 200-day EMA hurdle surrounding 0.7270. However, a clear run-up beyond the previous support line, near 0.7240 by the press time, becomes necessary to recall the pair buyers. The follow-on advances past 0.7270 could aim for a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of April-May, around 0.7345. Should the pair manage to stay firmer past 0.7345, the odds of witnessing a rally towards late April swing high near 0.7460 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, a clear downside break of the 50-day EMA level surrounding 0.7170 won’t hesitate to break the 0.7100 threshold while seeking a retest of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.7025. Following that, 0.6945 could act as the last defense for buyers before directing the sellers towards the yearly low near 0.6830. Overall, AUDUSD bulls appear to run out of steam as traders await the RBA’s rate increase. Given the widely priced-in move, bears could search for any hints of no more rate lifts to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bulls eye four-month-long hurdle past 0.6500 on RBNZNZDUSD renews a three-week high around 0.6500 after the RBNZ confirmed the widely anticipated 0.50% rate hike. The upside momentum takes clues from the early-week break out of a downward sloping trend line from the April peak and the 20-DMA, around 0.6385-80. Also keeping the bulls hopeful is the RSI (14) conditions, firmer but not overbought. That said, a horizontal area comprising levels marked since late January, around 0.6540, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. In a case where the quote rises past 0.6540, the upward trajectory towards the 50-DMA level surrounding 0.6660 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.6380 could direct NZDUSD sellers towards 0.6290-85 intermediate support ahead of highlighting the monthly low of 0.6210 on the bear’s radar. Overall, NZDUSD buyers are ready for further upside but multiple levels stand tall to test the north-run.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
Key EMAs defend USDCAD bulls ahead of BOC rate-hikeBank of Canada (BOC) is up for the first rate-hike since 2017 but the markets are have already priced in a 0.25% lift to the benchmark rate, which in turn may not entertain the USDCAD bears until forward guidance appears hawkish. Technically, 100-EMA and 200-EMA offer strong supports near 1.2660 and 1.2640 to limit the quote’s short-term downside. If the pair bears conquer the 1.2640 support, a downward trajectory towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October-December 2021 upside, near 1.2550, can’t be ruled out. However, an upward sloping trend line from October 2021, near 1.2520, will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers afterward. Alternatively, a disappointment, or negative surprise, from the forward guidance could trigger the quote’s recovery moves towards the mid-December 2021 low near 1.2760. Following that, the 1.2800 threshold and 1.2850 levels may entertain USDCAD bulls before directing them to February’s peak of 1.2877. Overall, BOC may not please USDCAD bears until doing more than what is already expected. Other than the BOC, OPEC+ meeting and geopolitics also keep the spotlight on the Loonie pair as prices of Canada’s key export WTI crude oil rally of late.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD defends 100-DMA breakout with eyes on RBAAUDUSD holds onto Friday’s recovery moves from a three-week-old support line around the 100-DMA as Aussie traders brace for the RBA monetary policy meeting. Although Australia’s central bank has been dovish of late, any hints of a tighter monetary policy for the future may allow the AUDUSD prices to extend the latest run-up beyond the 100-DMA level of 0.7240. Even so, a downward sloping trend line from January 12 near 0.7280 and February’s high surrounding 0.7285 will act as extra hurdles to the north. Should the quote remain firmer above 0.7285, bulls will be confident in crossing the January month’s high near 0.7315. Alternatively, RBA’s downbeat comments and fears of softer wage growth could weigh on AUDUSD prices, which in turn highlight the short-term support line, around 0.7140 by the press time. It should be noted, however, that a clear downside break of 0.7140 will make the quote vulnerable to drop towards February’s bottom close to 0.7050. In a case where AUDUSD bears keep reins past 0.7050, the year 2021 low near 0.6990 and the bottom marked in January around 0.6965 will be in focus. Overall, the AUDUSD rebound approaches the key hurdles ahead of impending downbeat catalysts.
by MTradingGlobal
Central Bank Share short term Analysis 1. Today we'll discuss another stock which is CENTRAL BANK. 2. Today Date is 07-09-2021. 3. Currently stock is trading at 20.75 which is shown in candle chart. 4. There is short term Technical Target 24.20 which is shown in image above, which is approximately 16.70% gain. 5. How much time it takes to reach target, according to my analysis, it takes maximum 1-2 months. 6. Promoter holding has increased by 3.30 % over last quarterly result. Last quarterly result which is June Month (2021) is good this quarterly result is except to be in profit.. IMPORTANT RULES 08. Only invest 3 % of your capital in one stock, Please don't ignore this rule because we are investing our hard-earn money here so risk management is best part of trading. 09. We never sell stock in loss. 10. We are investing in equity share. 11. Patience is the key in equity, sometime great company went down that is the opportunity to buy these companies because we know they will come back very quickly. IMPORTANT LEARNING 12. Every person who is trading in Indian share market, definitely need to read company balance sheet before trading and also look technical chart. 14. From my experience screener.in is best website for reading company financial data/balance sheet and for technical chart in.tradingview.com is best website. Disclaimer:- I'll post here stocks analysis for educational purpose where you can learn, not a recommendation of stocks buy or sell.
NSE:CENTRALBKShort
by mantusharma13
4
GBPUSD seesaws inside bullish pennant ahead of BOEGBPUSD bears the burden of the US dollar rebound and the pre-BOE anxiety during the early Super Thursday. Although the Bank of England (BOE) policymakers aren’t expected to alter monetary policy, the widely anticipated dovish tilt in contrast to the Fed’s tapering woes seems to weigh on the quote of late. Even so, the bullish chart pattern keeps buyers hopeful. The same requires clear trading beyond 1.3950 to confirm the buyers’ arrival. However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June-July declines, near 1.3990, adds to the upside filters before directing the bulls toward the early June’s low near 1.4065. Meanwhile, a sustained trading below 1.3880 will defy the bullish pennant and direct GBPUSD sellers toward the 200-SMA level of 1.3835. In a case where the “Old Lady” turns more bearish than expected, multiple supports near the 1.3740-30 region, comprising levels marked since July 02, should gain the market’s attention. Additionally, the pair’s weakness past 1.3730 won’t hesitate to challenge the lows marked during July and February around 1.3570-60.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
Central Bank - Buy on DipsCentral Bank - Long Buy : ₹ 26.5 - ₹ 24 Target: ₹ 29.55, ₹ 32 Support: ₹ 24.6, ₹ 23.05 Invest and Trade Wisely! Good Luck! You can also see my other stock analysis and the results in my profile ideas. Please follow me , If you would like to see more ideas on winning stocks. **Disclaimer: I am NOT a SEBI registered consultant/Advisor. It is completely my view and opinion. My intention is not to provide any financial advice, training advice, or any type of advices or any recommendations on stock/Forex/Coin buying or selling. Please do your own research and consult with your financial advisor before taking any action. I am not responsible for any of your action on buying or selling or holding the above mentioned stock or/and index or/and Forex or/and coins . ***
NSE:CENTRALBKLong
by pmosesoliver