Gold Trading Strategy for 04th Sep 2025📊 Gold Intraday Trading Plan
✅ Buy Setup (Long Position)
Condition to Enter:
Wait for the 15-minute candle to close above $3579.
Buy Entry: Above $3579.
Targets:
First Target – $3590
Second Target – $3601
Third Target – $3613
Stop Loss (SL): Below recent 15-min support (e.g., $3570).
Example:
If the 15-min candle closes at $3581, you can enter a buy trade at around $3582–$3583.
If price moves to $3590, you book your first profit.
If it continues higher, trail your stop-loss to lock in profits while aiming for $3601 and $3613.
✅ Sell Setup (Short Position)
Condition to Enter:
Wait for the 1-hour candle to close below $3545.
Sell Entry: Below $3545.
Targets:
First Target – $3534
Second Target – $3523
Third Target – $3511
Stop Loss (SL): Above recent 1-hour resistance (e.g., $3555).
Example:
If the 1-hour candle closes at $3543, you can enter a sell trade around $3542–$3544.
If price falls to $3534, that’s your first target.
If it keeps dropping, trail your stop-loss and aim for $3523 and $3511.
⚠️ Important Notes for Beginners
Always wait for candle close confirmation. Don’t jump in before the candle closes, as fake breakouts can trap traders.
Use strict stop-loss. This protects you if the market moves opposite.
Trade with small lot size in the beginning to control risk.
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): Always aim for at least 1:2 RRR (risk $1 to gain $2).
📌 Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading in gold or any market involves significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions. Trade at your own risk.
Chart Patterns
ABFRL: Price Action OverviewFollowing a gap-down opening on June 4, ABFRL entered a consolidation phase, trading within a well-defined supply and demand zone. This range-bound movement suggests a period of accumulation or indecision among market participants. During this consolidation, the stock has formed a double bottom pattern on the daily chart—a classical reversal structure that often indicates a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, provided confirmation follows.
An inverted hammer appeared near the second bottom, signaling potential buying interest at lower levels. This was followed by a bullish pin bar, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term reversal. These candlestick formations, especially when occurring near support zones, can be interpreted as early signs of bullish momentum returning—though follow-through price action is essential.
If bullish momentum sustains than the stock may attempt to fill the gap left from the June 4 session. The gap resistance level is around ₹84 , which could act as a near-term target for traders monitoring this setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
KEC International: Bullish Structure with StrengthSince April 7th, the price structure of KEC International has demonstrated a notable bullish trend reversal, characterized by the formation of higher highs and higher lows along an ascending trendline. This pattern is often interpreted by technical analysts as a sign of strengthening upward momentum.
A recent Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the swing low to the swing high of the current rally, revealed a pullback to the 38.2% level—a zone commonly viewed as a potential support area within a prevailing uptrend. The stock responded positively to this level, rebounding and subsequently closing above the 61.8% retracement level, which is another key technical threshold.
Interestingly, the price has retested the 61.8% level and held firm, suggesting that this area may be acting as a support base. Additionally, the stock has managed to close above its 200-day EMA, a long-term trend indicator that many market participants use to assess broader directional bias. A sustained position above the 200 EMA is generally considered constructive from a trend-following perspective.
From a structural standpoint, based on current chart dynamics, the next potential resistance zone appears to be near ₹948, while the suggested support level is around ₹780 . These levels are derived from historical price action and technical confluence zones, and may serve as reference points for monitoring future price behaviour.
Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Market conditions are subject to change, and trading decisions should be made based on individual research, risk assessment, and consultation with a licensed financial advisor.
Nifty 50 Price ActionNifty 50 is trading near 24,715 as of September 4, 2025, showing mild recovery after several sessions of volatility and weakness. The index has bounced back above the 24,600 support zone with improved breadth and higher volumes, but technical indicators reflect a cautious undertone. All short- and medium-term moving averages (5, 10, 20, 50) still point bearish, and bearish crossovers on 5-20 and 20-50 day averages reinforce negative momentum. Oscillators like MACD, stochastics, ROC, and CCI remain in bearish territory, while RSI sits neutral around 45, and William %R signals oversold conditions, suggesting the possibility of a short-term bounce.
Immediate resistance for Nifty is seen at 24,650–24,700, with a major hurdle near the 50-day moving average in the 24,850 area. A decisive move above these levels would strengthen bullish sentiment, potentially opening up the range to 25,250–25,500. On the downside, key support remains at 24,500, with stronger base near 24,250. A break below these supports could lead to extension of the recent pullback toward the 24,000 level.
The broader trend appears range-bound with slight positive bias, but foreign institutional investors have been net sellers, which has tempered upside momentum. Sectors like auto, capital goods, and select mid-cap stocks are attracting buyers, while defensive sectors remain subdued. For now, a cautious approach is advised, using “sell on rise” until Nifty can reclaim more short-term moving averages. Long-term trend remains bullish, suggesting dips should be viewed as buying opportunities for quality stocks, especially if domestic and global cues improve.
Coal India – Breakout or Fakeout at Key Resistance?Chart Context
Coal India has been stuck inside a descending channel, completing what looks like a W–X–Y corrective structure. The recent surge has now brought price face-to-face with the MA100 and MA200 , both acting as strong resistances.
What the Chart Shows
MA100 & MA200: Price is testing these moving averages. Sustained strength above this zone is needed to confirm a real breakout.
Volume: A noticeable spike has supported the latest move, which adds credibility to the attempt.
RSI: Momentum has crossed above 50, shifting the bias, but confirmation requires follow-through.
Neutral Stance
At this stage, the setup can go either way. A clean breakout and hold above the MAs could mark the start of a fresh impulse. Failure to sustain would make this just another bounce inside the corrective structure.
Takeaway
It’s a wait-and-watch situation. Let the next few sessions decide whether this is the start of a new trend — or just a fake breakout.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
BANKNIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 04-Sep-2025BANK NIFTY TRADING PLAN – 04-Sep-2025
📌 Key Levels to Watch :
Opening Resistance Zone: 54,233 – 54,322
Last Intraday Resistance Zone: 54,574 – 54,678
Major Resistance: 54,957
Opening Support Zone: 53,825 – 53,943
Last Intraday Support: 53,682
These levels will define intraday trend strength and reversals. Let’s analyze scenarios:
🔼 1. Gap-Up Opening (200+ points above 54,233)
If Bank Nifty opens significantly higher above 54,233, it will enter the resistance zone and buyers will aim to test 54,574 – 54,678.
📌 Plan of Action :
Sustaining above 54,322 can lead to a quick rally towards 54,574 – 54,678.
Booking profits near this zone is advised, as sellers may step in.
If momentum extends, the next target will be 54,957, but only if 54,678 breaks with strength.
👉 Educational Note: Gap-ups near resistance zones can often trap late buyers. Always wait for confirmation before entering fresh longs.
➖ 2. Flat Opening (Around 53,900 – 54,100)
A flat start near current levels indicates balance. Intraday movement will depend on whether support or resistance breaks first.
📌 Plan of Action :
Holding above 53,943 (Opening Support) can push price towards 54,233 – 54,322 (Resistance Zone).
A breakout above this zone may open the path to 54,574 – 54,678.
If price slips below 53,825, weakness can extend towards 53,682.
👉 Educational Note: Flat openings often provide the cleanest intraday trends once the first 30 minutes establish direction.
🔽 3. Gap-Down Opening (200+ points below 53,825)
If Bank Nifty opens weak below 53,825, sellers will take control, with supports coming into play.
📌 Plan of Action :
A gap-down below 53,825 increases probability of a slide towards 53,682 (Last Intraday Support).
If 53,682 breaks, the downside can intensify with sharp selling.
Any bounce from this zone should be treated cautiously unless price regains 53,825 – 53,943.
👉 Educational Note: Gap-downs can trigger panic selling, but experienced traders should watch for reversal patterns near strong supports.
🛡️ Risk Management Tips for Options Traders
Always place stop losses based on hourly close.
Limit risk to 1–2% of trading capital per position.
Scale out profits – exit part at first target, hold balance for extended moves.
Avoid over-leveraging in weekly expiry days to reduce volatility risk.
When uncertainty is high, prefer spreads (Bull Call / Bear Put) over naked options.
📌 Summary & Conclusion
🟢 Above 54,233 → Upside towards 54,574 – 54,678, extended 54,957 .
🟧 Flat Opening → Range-bound between 53,825 – 54,322; breakout will decide direction .
🔴 Below 53,825 → Weakness towards 53,682 and possibly lower .
⚠️ Key Pivot Zone: 53,825 – 53,943 will act as the critical battleground for bulls and bears.
⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making trading decisions.
“XAUUSD – Strong Sell Setup from All-Time High Resistance“XAUUSD – Strong Sell Setup from All-Time High Resistance 🚨📉”
Currently, gold has reached a strong resistance zone around 3575 – 3600, where price is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong bullish rally. This area is a key supply zone and could trigger profit-taking or fresh short entries.
From here, I am expecting a potential correction move.
1st Target: Around 3480 – 3450, where we can see a clear demand zone and previous consolidation.
If bearish pressure continues, the price may extend towards the final target at 3330 – 3320, which is also a key support point aligned with previous market structure.
Market structure shows a clear higher low formation earlier, which fueled this rally, but after tapping into resistance, a short-term pullback seems highly likely.
📌 Overall, short-term bias = bearish correction, while long-term trend remains bullish unless price breaks below the 3320 support zone.ll-Time High Resistance
TD Power Systems Breakout: Tight Base & High-Volume SurgeThe chart for TD Power Systems (TDPOW) demonstrates a classic technical setup with a tight consolidation base through July and August, followed by a decisive breakout marked by a high-volume candle surpassing previous resistance near ₹525. Multiple moving averages support the bullish breakout, suggesting increased strength and potential for further upward movement in the short term.
ACMESOLAR : Base Formation, Tight Zones, and Pivot Analysis This chart of ACME shows price action over several months, highlighting key technical levels and zones. A clear base formation is established early, followed by successive tight zones indicating consolidation phases, which often precede breakouts. The pivot level mark signals a critical resistance point, with price action approaching and ultimately breaking out above it. Multiple moving averages are shown for trend context, and all major formations are annotated for quick identification, supporting both educational and trading analysis.
Piramal Pharma (Daily Timeframe) - Potential BreakOutPiramal Pharma, has formed a Double-Bottom chart pattern, indicating Bullish reversal. With today's bullish candle the volume has also spiked. We should watch out for the price action in the coming days. As indicated in the chart, resistance trendline is respected as well as the support trendline. If the stock has to move up, then it has to breach the resistance trendline.
Let's keep a watch on it.
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 04-Sep-2025NIFTY TRADING PLAN – 04-Sep-2025
📌 Key Levels to Watch :
Opening Resistance: 24,778
Last Intraday Resistance: 24,904
Major Resistance: 24,994
Opening Support: 24,640
Last Intraday Support Zone: 24,471 – 24,517
Buyer’s Support: 24,360
These levels will guide intraday trend direction. Let’s break down scenarios.
🔼 1. Gap-Up Opening (100+ points above 24,778)
If Nifty opens above 24,778, bulls will try to push it higher towards 24,904 (Last Intraday Resistance) and eventually test 24,994 (Major Resistance).
📌 Plan of Action :
Sustaining above 24,778 can invite upside momentum. Targets: 24,904 → 24,994.
Near 24,904, expect volatility as sellers may book profits.
If rejection comes from 24,904, price may fall back towards 24,778.
👉 Educational Note: In strong gap-ups, chasing early moves can be risky. Safer entries often come on retests of support levels.
➖ 2. Flat Opening (Around 24,640 – 24,713)
A flat start near the current zone shows balance between buyers and sellers. Price will look for a trigger from support/resistance.
📌 Plan of Action :
Holding above 24,640 (Opening Support) will keep momentum positive, opening path to 24,778 → 24,904.
If it fails to hold 24,640, expect a drift towards Last Intraday Support 24,471 – 24,517.
Avoid trades in the middle zone; clarity comes only when price breaks key levels.
👉 Educational Note: Flat openings usually consolidate in the first 30 minutes; patience helps avoid false breakouts.
🔽 3. Gap-Down Opening (100+ points below 24,640)
If Nifty opens weak below 24,640, sellers may dominate the session.
📌 Plan of Action :
A gap-down below 24,640 will likely test the 24,471 – 24,517 zone.
Breakdown below this zone could extend weakness towards 24,360 (Buyer’s Support).
If 24,360 holds, expect a technical bounce; else, further downside may unfold.
👉 Educational Note: In gap-downs, avoid aggressive longs unless there is a strong reversal confirmation.
🛡️ Risk Management Tips for Options Traders
Always place a stop loss on hourly close basis.
Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade.
Use scaling out strategy (book partial profits at first target, ride balance till next).
Avoid holding OTM options deep into expiry week to reduce time decay risk.
Use option spreads like Bull Call or Bear Put when volatility is high.
📌 Summary & Conclusion
🟢 Above 24,778 → Upside towards 24,904 – 24,994 .
🟧 Flat Opening → Watch 24,640 for support, 24,778 for breakout .
🔴 Below 24,640 → Weakness towards 24,471 – 24,517; next support 24,360 .
⚠️ Key Decision Zone: 24,640 (Opening Support) will act as the pivot.
⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is purely for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before trading.
TD Power Systems (Daily Timeframe) - Can it make new ATH ??TD Power made a new All Time High today with huge volume. With that last bullish candle, on daily timeframe, we observe a Double-Top which is a bearish chart pattern. The angular support trendline has been respected as indicated. Short-term EMAs are in positive cross-over state, which is an obvious scenario during Double-Top formation.
We should observe how the price action plays out in the coming days to decide on the possible targets, both upside and downside.
DXY Outlook: Volatility Dominates as Fed Uncertainty PersistsDXY Outlook: Volatility Dominates as Fed Uncertainty Persists
DXY (US Dollar Index) Analysis Report
🔎 Technical Outlook
The index recently moved in a clear upward cycle, followed by a sharp rejection, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to macro shifts.
Price action has transitioned into volatile swings, with both bullish and bearish impulses shaping short-term structure.
Current momentum shows cyclical corrections within a broader attempt to sustain bullish rhythm, but intraday moves remain reactive to news flows.
Market behavior suggests traders are seeking liquidity both sides before choosing a decisive directional move.
🌍 Fundamental Outlook
Federal Reserve Policy: Speculation around rate adjustments remains the dominant driver. Softer inflation data has kept expectations for gradual easing alive, while labor market resilience adds uncertainty.
Global Risk Sentiment: Dollar demand fluctuates with equity market flows — stronger equities reduce safe-haven demand, while risk-off tones boost USD.
Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing tensions in trade and global supply chain disruptions support occasional flight-to-safety flows into the dollar.
Comparative Growth: While the US economy shows relative resilience versus peers, diverging central bank policies (ECB, BOJ, BOE) also influence dollar positioning.
Investor Behavior: Large funds are rebalancing exposure — maintaining a neutral to cautiously bullish stance on USD until clearer macro signals emerge.
Man Industries (Daily Timeframe) - Upside or Downside??Man industries has been on an uptrend since March 03, 2025 and it tried to BreakOut of the key resistance zone, but invain. Today the stock gained 6% with huge volume. Since March 03, 2025, the stock has been respecting the angular support trendline while making Higher Lows. If we observe carefully, an H&S pattern is formed at the top which indicates a bearish trend. Short-term EMAs are also in Negative Cross-over state.
If the stock gains momentum on the upside, then it may rise to the range of 458. On the downside, the stock may reach the immediate support of 379.
To monitor.
Jindal Steel Breakout Study | Momentum, Volume & Key Levels📊 STWP Stock Analysis – JINDAL STEEL (3rd Sept 2025)
Price Action:
Jindal Steel surged to a CMP of ₹1028.35, marking an impressive +5.46% gain on the day. The stock is currently riding on strong momentum with a clear bullish crossover trend, signaling further upside potential. However, traders must remain cautious as the risk level is high, fueled by sharp price swings. What adds conviction to the move is the heavy volume participation, showing strong market interest and active participation by investors.
Volume & Participation
Jindal Steel witnessed a massive trading volume of 45.2 lakh shares today, almost 2x its 20-SMA average of 19.9 lakh shares (Volx: 1.98x ). This sharp surge in participation clearly highlights the presence of strong hands in action, adding weight to the bullish move and reinforcing market conviction.
Indicator Check
The indicators are painting a mixed yet insightful picture for Jindal Steel. The RSI at 61.1 shows strong momentum, while the CCI at 109 confirms a bullish bias. However, the MACD at -1.07 signals a slight bearish crossover, which needs monitoring. Meanwhile, the Stochastic at 98 suggests the stock is overbought, hinting at possible short-term profit booking. Importantly, prices remain above all key EMAs, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.
Key levels
Resistance: 1048/1067/1105
Support: 991/953/934
📰 Latest News Snapshot — JINDALSTEL
Jindal Steel & Power is making headlines on multiple fronts. In its Q1 FY26 results (Aug 12, 2025), the company delivered a strong turnaround with net profit at ₹1,494 crore, aided by a 32% QoQ jump in EBITDA and healthier margins at 24.4%, though revenues softened to about ₹12,294 crore. On the operational side, JSPL commissioned its first continuous galvanising line (CGL-1) at Angul, Odisha, enhancing its ability to supply value-added coated steel for automobiles, appliances, infrastructure, and construction — a big step in product diversification. Meanwhile, the market responded positively as the stock surged 4–5% on heavy volumes on September 3, 2025, also factoring in its recent ₹2/share final dividend declaration.
🧭 Sentiment Outlook & Investment Perspective
Jindal Steel & Power is showing a moderately positive outlook, backed by a strong turnaround in profitability with margins and EBITDA improving, while its new galvanising line at Angul adds valuable capacity in coated steel for autos, appliances, and infrastructure — a move that strengthens its long-term product mix and earnings potential. The recent surge in trading volumes and price action highlights strong market participation, which can attract further momentum buying in the near term. However, risks remain in the form of softer revenues, exposure to the cyclical swings of steel prices and exports, and the possibility of short-term corrections after sharp rallies. In the short term, volatility may stay elevated as the stock digests its recent gains, but in the long term, the focus on higher-margin products and disciplined capacity expansion positions the company constructively for sustainable growth — making it a stock to watch with cautious optimism.
🚀 Bullish Momentum
The stock is also riding on strong technical momentum, with a Bullish Marubozu candle and an Open = Low setup, both pointing to firm buying support. A Bollinger Band breakout following a BB squeeze indicates the potential for sharp price expansion. Adding to the momentum, an RSI breakout, combined with a powerful bullish candle structure, confirms the strength of the move. The setup even aligns with a possible Buy Today, Sell Tomorrow (BTST) opportunity, making the near-term trend look decisively bullish.
📊 STWP Trade Analysis – JINDAL STEEL
JINDAL STEEL is showing strong momentum supported by volume. I will consider my entry near ₹1030 as part of a breakout setup. If the stock dips closer to ₹1015, I will look at that as a more conservative entry with tighter risk, which suits my swing trading approach.
For me, the pullback level around ₹954.25 is an important support zone where buyers might re-enter, while the invalidation level near ₹910 would signal that my bullish view has failed. On the upside, I will be watching ₹1117 and ₹1205 as possible target zones if momentum continues. 🚀
⚠️ Disclaimer – Please Read Carefully
The information shared here is meant purely for learning and awareness. It is not a buy or sell recommendation and should not be taken as investment advice. I am not a SEBI-registered investment advisor, and all views expressed are based on personal study, chart patterns, and publicly available market data.
Trading — whether in stocks or options — carries risk. Markets can move unexpectedly, and losses can sometimes exceed the money you have invested. Past performance or past setups do not guarantee future results.
If you are a beginner, treat this as a guide to understand how the market works — practice on paper trades before risking real money. If you are experienced, always assess your own risk, position sizing, and strategy suitability before entering trades.
Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any real trading decision. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge full responsibility for your trades and investments.
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APOLLO: C&H and Rounding Bottom BO: Chart of the Week NSE:APOLLO : The Cup and Handle Breakout That Finally Delivered After Multiple False Starts with Rounding Bottom Breakout on Daily TF Let's Analyze it in the Chart of the Week.
As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate.
Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Price Action:
• The chart reveals a sophisticated Cup and Handle pattern formation spanning from Late-2023 to August 2025, with the "cup" forming between 205-160 levels and the "handle" consolidating around the 180-200 zone
• Multiple breakout attempts were witnessed - first in December 2024 with a King Candle formation, followed by another sharp rally in May 2025, both failing to sustain above the descending trendline
• The current August 2025 breakout represents the third and most convincing attempt, breaking through both the descending resistance trendline and the horizontal resistance at 205-220 levels
• Volume surge during the current breakout (119.95M vs average 54.33M) confirms institutional participation and validates the breakout authenticity
• The curved line clearly marks the rounding bottom formation, indicating a gradual shift from bearish to bullish sentiment
Volume Spread Analysis:
Volume Pattern Insights:
• Exceptional volume breakout with nearly 2.2x average daily volume during the recent surge
• Volume accumulation visible during the cup formation, indicating smart money participation
• Low volume during handle formation, suggesting healthy consolidation
• Volume expansion coinciding with price breakout confirms institutional buying
Key Support and Resistance:
• Immediate Support Zones:
- Primary: 220-225 (previous resistance turned support)
- Secondary: 200-205 (handle formation base)
- Major: 180-185 (cup formation low)
• Critical Resistance Levels:
- Near-term: 250-260 (measured move target from cup depth)
- Intermediate: 280-290 (Fibonacci extension 1.618 level)
- Long-term: 320-340 (cup and handle pattern target)
• Base Formation: Strong accumulation base established between 160-220 over 18+ months
Multi-Pattern Technical Setup:
• Cup and Handle Pattern: Classic bullish continuation pattern with 18-month formation period
• Descending Triangle Breakout: Successfully breached the falling trendline resistance
• Rounding Bottom: Long-term reversal pattern indicating strong institutional accumulation
• Volume Breakout Pattern: Exceptional volume expansion confirming price breakout validity
Fundamental and Sectoral Backdrop:
Latest Financial Performance:
• Net profit surged 126% to Rs 19 crore in Q1 FY2026 compared to Rs 8 crore in Q1 FY2025
• Revenue growth of 46.5% to Rs 134 crore versus Rs 91 crore in the previous year, same quarter
• Quarterly growth basis shows a 32.21% jump in net profits since last quarter
• Market capitalization stands at approximately Rs 7,854 crores, reflecting strong market confidence
Strategic Business Positioning:
• Company is involved in more than 150 indigenous defence programs and 60 DcPP (Defence Capital Procurement Policy) programs as a sub-system partner
• Specializes in ruggedized electronic hardware and software solutions for critical sectors
• Strong focus on import substitution and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives
• Diversified client base including DRDO, HAL, BEL, and other major defence contractors
Sector Momentum Analysis:
• Apollo Micro Systems gained 14.6% on August 22, 2025, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations
• Stock has significantly outperformed the broader market year-to-date, reflecting strong performance in the Aerospace & Defence sector
• Defence budget allocation increases continue to provide sectoral tailwinds
• Growing focus on indigenous defence manufacturing creates long-term opportunities
Market Participation Analysis:
• High institutional interest is evident from volume patterns
• Retail participation is likely to increase given the breakout visibility
• Options activity expected to increase as the stock approaches higher price levels
• Potential inclusion in small-cap/midcap indices could trigger passive fund buying
Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis:
Technical Risk Factors:
• Failed breakout history (December 2024 and May 2025) suggests caution is required
• High beta nature means increased volatility during market corrections
• Potential for profit booking at psychologically important 250 levels
• Need for sustained volume to validate the breakout authenticity
Fundamental Risk Considerations:
• Defence sector dependency on government policy changes and budget allocations
• Long procurement cycles are typical in defence contracts, affecting quarterly results
• Competition from established defence majors and emerging players
• Currency fluctuation impact on imported components and raw materials
Full Coverage on my Newsletter this Week
Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR.
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As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes, it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate.
Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
RLC going goodPrice was consolidating below a descending trendline (blue). It has now broken above it with momentum, suggesting a bullish breakout.
• Entry Zone:
Current price is around 1.3480 USDT after reclaiming the breakout area. The long entry zone starts above this breakout.
• Stop-Loss Zone (Red Area):
Placed below 1.3100 – 1.2500 USDT, with deeper support around 1.1770. This covers previous consolidation lows, protecting against false breakouts.
• Target Zone (Green Area):
The first target is around 1.4085 USDT (near resistance).
The major target is 1.6296 USDT, extending up toward 1.72 USDT (previous highs).
• Risk-to-Reward (RR):
The setup looks to be a high RR trade, aiming for more than 2–3x reward compared to the risk zone.
• Indicators:
Short EMA (yellow) has crossed above the longer MA (blue), confirming bullish momentum. Volume has also picked up on the breakout, which strengthens the setup.
👉 Overall: This is a bullish breakout trade with stop-loss protection below recent supports and upside targets toward 1.62–1.72 if momentum continues.
GBPNZD Market Outlook: Pound Strength vs Kiwi WeaknessGBPNZD Market Outlook: Pound Strength vs Kiwi Weakness
GBPNZD Analysis Report
🔎 Technical Outlook
The pair has shown a clear upward channel structure, followed by a sharp breakout with strong bullish momentum.
After topping out, price shifted into a downward corrective leg, suggesting rebalancing after the impulsive rally.
The ongoing structure indicates volatility within consolidation phases, where short-term cycles may lead to liquidity sweeps before direction clarity.
Market rhythm shows that buyers remain active on dips, while profit-taking drives retracements.
🌍 Fundamental Outlook
UK Side: The British Pound is being influenced by Bank of England’s cautious monetary stance, inflationary pressures, and slowing growth momentum. While rate expectations remain under review, GBP has retained relative strength against weaker currencies.
New Zealand Side: The NZD faces challenges from lower dairy export demand, softer economic data, and RBNZ’s limited room for aggressive tightening. Commodity-linked weakness continues to weigh on the Kiwi.
Global Macro: Broader risk sentiment (equities, commodities) also impacts NZD more than GBP, as investors adjust positions in high-beta currencies.
Capital Flows: Markets are leaning toward GBP strength vs. NZD softness, driven by relative economic outlook and investor positioning.
XAUUSD – Breakout Sets the Stage for More UpsideXAUUSD – Breakout Sets the Stage for More Upside
On the Daily chart, gold has cleared the horizontal resistance around 3,500 , ending a prolonged consolidation phase and confirming the Ascending Triangle pattern . This signals that buyers remain firmly in control.
In the short term, a pullback toward 3,500–3,520 is possible as the market retests the breakout zone. Holding this area would strengthen the case for continuation to the upside.
Key levels to watch:
Support: 3,500–3,520
Near-term Resistance: 3,575–3,600
Extended Target: 3,700–3,750 if momentum persists
Overall, the outlook stays positive, and any dips are likely to be viewed as opportunities to join the prevailing uptrend.
Do you think gold will soon make its way toward the 3,700 mark?